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131.
M. Albert 《Synthese》2007,156(3):587-603
Probability theory is important because of its relevance for decision making, which also means: its relevance for the single
case. The propensity theory of objective probability, which addresses the single case, is subject to two problems: Humphreys’
problem of inverse probabilities and the problem of the reference class. The paper solves both problems by restating the propensity
theory using (an objectivist version of) Pearl’s approach to causality and probability, and by applying a decision-theoretic
perspective. Contrary to a widely held view, decision making on the basis of given propensities can proceed without a subjective-probability
supplement to propensities. 相似文献
132.
Three experiments investigated whether participants used Take The Best (TTB) Configural, a fast and frugal heuristic that processes configurations of cues when making inferences concerning which of two alternatives has a higher criterion value. Participants were presented with a compound cue that was nonlinearly separable from its elements. The compound was highly valid in Experiments 1 and 2, but invalid in Experiment 3. Participants’ causal mental models were manipulated via instructions: participants were either told that cues acted through the same causal mechanism (configural causal model), through different causal mechanisms (elemental causal model), or the causal mechanisms were not specified (neutral causal model). A high percentage of participants used TTB-Configural when they had a configural causal model and a highly valid compound existed, suggesting that causal knowledge can be incorporated in otherwise very basic cognitive mechanisms to allow fine-grained adaptation to complex task structures. 相似文献
133.
We investigate the joint effects of decision risk and the stage of project completion on escalation of commitment. In two experiments, we demonstrate that the effect of decision risk is moderated by project stage such that the decision risk has the strongest effect on escalation of commitment at the intermediate stage of project completion. This is due to the dynamic influences underlying escalation of commitment. Whereas the need for project information influences resource commitment at the initial stage of a project, the need for project completion affects resource allocation at the terminal stage. In contrast, motivation to commit resources is disproportionately low at the intermediate stage since both the need for project information and the need for project completion are relatively weak. As such, the decision to commit resources is most sensitive to the moderating effect of decision risk when the project is about half complete. 相似文献
134.
The impact of induced mild positive feelings on working memory and complex decision making among older adults (aged 63–85) was examined. Participants completed a computer administered card task in which participants could win money if they chose from “gain” decks and lose money if they chose from “loss” decks. Individuals in the positive-feeling condition chose better than neutral-feeling participants and earned more money overall. Participants in the positive-feeling condition also demonstrated improved working-memory capacity. These effects of positive-feeling induction have implications for affect theory, as well as, potentially, practical implications for people of all ages dealing with complex decisions. 相似文献
135.
There is broad consensus that human cognition is adaptive. However, the vital question of how exactly this adaptivity is achieved has remained largely open. Herein, we contrast two frameworks which account for adaptive decision making, namely broad and general single-mechanism accounts vs. multi-strategy accounts. We propose and fully specify a single-mechanism model for decision making based on parallel constraint satisfaction processes (PCS-DM) and contrast it theoretically and empirically against a multi-strategy account. To achieve sufficiently sensitive tests, we rely on a multiple-measure methodology including choice, reaction time, and confidence data as well as eye-tracking. Results show that manipulating the environmental structure produces clear adaptive shifts in choice patterns – as both frameworks would predict. However, results on the process level (reaction time, confidence), in information acquisition (eye-tracking), and from cross-predicting choice consistently corroborate single-mechanisms accounts in general, and the proposed parallel constraint satisfaction model for decision making in particular. 相似文献
136.
The position of an item influences its evaluation, with research consistently finding that items occupying central locations are preferred and have a higher subjective value. The current study investigated whether this centre-stage effect (CSE) is a result of bottom-up gaze allocation to the central item, and whether it is affected by item valence. Participants (n = 50) were presented with three images of artistic paintings in a row and asked to choose the image they preferred. Eye movements were recorded for a subset of participants (n = 22). On each trial the three artworks were either similar but different, or were identical and with positive valence, or were identical and with negative valence. The results showed a centre-stage effect, with artworks in the centre of the row preferred, but only when they were identical and of positive valence. Significantly greater gaze allocation to the central and left artwork was not mirrored by equivalent increases in preference choices. Regression analyses showed that when the artworks were positive and identical the participants' last fixation predicted preference for the central art-work, whereas the fixation duration predicted preference if the images were different. Overall the result showed that item valence, rather than level of gaze allocation, influences the CSE, which is incompatible with the bottom-up gaze explanation. We propose that the centre stage heuristic, which specifies that the best items are in the middle, is able to explain these findings and the centre-stage effect. 相似文献
137.
In this review, we examine the impact of two key factors of consumer empowerment–choice freedom and expansion of information--on the choice difficulty consumers experience in today’s decision environment. We posit that though these two consumer empowerment factors offer numerous potential benefits, they also can magnify such sources of decision difficulty as task complexity, tradeoff difficulty, and preference uncertainty. Next we review several key moderators, including consumer knowledge, mental representation, and maximization tendencies as well as information type and organization, that can exacerbate or mitigate the effect of these consumer empowerment factors on decision difficultly outcomes. Lastly, we examine the effectiveness of decision aids in assisting consumers navigate the complexity of today’s decision environment, and we identify areas for future investigation. 相似文献
138.
Visual–spatial attention can be biased towards salient visual information without visual awareness. It is unclear, however, whether such bias can further influence free-choices such as saccades in a free viewing task. In our experiment, we presented visual cues below awareness threshold immediately before people made free saccades. Our results showed that masked cues could influence the direction and latency of the first free saccade, suggesting that salient visual information can unconsciously influence free actions. 相似文献
139.
《Journal of applied research in memory and cognition》2014,3(2):72-76
People often make decisions by stochastically retrieving a small set of relevant memories. This limited retrieval implies that human performance can be improved by training on idealized category distributions (Giguère & Love, 2013). Here, we evaluate whether the benefits of idealized training extend to categorization of real-world stimuli, namely classifying mammograms as normal or tumorous. Participants in the idealized condition were trained exclusively on items that, according to a norming study, were relatively unambiguous. Participants in the actual condition were trained on a representative range of items. Despite being exclusively trained on easy items, idealized-condition participants were more accurate than those in the actual condition when tested on a range of item types. However, idealized participants experienced difficulties when test items were very dissimilar from training cases. The benefits of idealization, attributable to reducing noise arising from cognitive limitations in memory retrieval, suggest ways to improve real-world decision making. 相似文献
140.
LEE GROSSMAN 《The Psychoanalytic quarterly》2015,84(3):643-664
The terms sadism, masochism, and sadomasochism seem to have become increasingly, if loosely, associated with aggression in psychoanalytic discourse. This is due in part to the fact that Freud's changing ideas generated confusion about the relative contributions of libido and aggression. The author reviews Freud's variable usage and offers a clinical vignette to illustrate the importance of noticing how sadomasochism may maintain a tie to the object by controlling it. The author offers a developmental speculation for the role reversibility typical of sadomasochistic manifestations. He closes with a comment on the role of sadomasochistic aims in adult sexual perversion. 相似文献