Directions for judgment and decision making research based on comparison selection: Reply to Arkes,Johnson, and Kardes

Our target article proposed an alternative perspective for studying consumer judgment and decision making, focusing on the types and weights of comparisons consumers select. In this response we consider the major points made by each of the commentators and examine their implications for future work addressing our comparison-focused approach.     

Dissociation of sensory facilitation and decision bias in statistical learning

ABSTRACT

The detection of regularities in the sensory environment, known as statistical learning, is an important brain function that has been observed in many experimental contexts. In these experiments, statistical learning of patterned sensory stimulation leads to improvements in the speed and/or accuracy with which subsequent stimuli are recognized. That is, statistical learning facilitates the transformation of sensory stimuli into motor responses, but the mechanism by which this occurs is unclear. Statistical learning could improve the efficiency of sensory processing, or it could bias responses toward particular outcomes. The distinction is important, as these different hypotheses imply different functions and different neural substrates for statistical learning. Here we address this problem by studying statistical learning as a decision-making process, which allows us to leverage the extensive computational literature on this topic. Specifically we describe a method for applying the Diffusion Decision Model (DDM) to isolate different sensory and cognitive processes associated with decision-making. The results indicate that statistical learning improves performance on a visual learning task in two distinct ways: by altering the efficiency of sensory processing and by introducing biases in the decision-making process. By fitting the parameters of the DDM to data from individual subjects, we find that the prominence of these two factors differed substantially across the population, and that these differences were predictive of individual performance on the psychophysical task. Overall, these results indicate that different cognitive processes can be recruited by statistical learning, and that the DDM is a powerful framework for detecting these influences.     

The time course of gaze bias in visual decision tasks

In three experiments, we used eyetracking to investigate the time course of biases in looking behaviour during visual decision making. Our study replicated and extended prior research by Shimojo, Simion, Shimojo, and Scheier (2003), and Simion and Shimojo (2006). Three groups of participants performed forced-choice decisions in a two-alternative free-viewing condition (Experiment 1a), a two-alternative gaze-contingent window condition (Experiment 1b), and an eight-alternative free-viewing condition (Experiment 1c). Participants viewed photographic art images and were instructed to select the one that they preferred (preference task), or the one that they judged to be photographed most recently (recency task). Across experiments and tasks, we demonstrated robust bias towards the chosen item in either gaze duration, gaze frequency or both. The present gaze bias effect was less task specific than those reported previously. Importantly, in the eight-alternative condition we demonstrated a very early gaze bias effect, which rules out a postdecision response-related explanation.     

Gaze bias: Selective encoding and liking effects

People look longer at things that they choose than things they do not choose. How much of this tendency—the gaze bias effect—is due to a liking effect compared to the information encoding aspect of the decision-making process? Do these processes compete under certain conditions? We monitored eye movements during a visual decision-making task with four decision prompts: Like, dislike, older, and newer. The gaze bias effect was present during the first dwell in all conditions except the dislike condition, when the preference to look at the liked item and the goal to identify the disliked item compete. Colour content (whether a photograph was colour or black-and-white), not decision type, influenced the gaze bias effect in the older/newer decisions because colour is a relevant feature for such decisions. These interactions appear early in the eye movement record, indicating that gaze bias is influenced during information encoding.     

Keep or trade? Effects of pay-off range on decisions with the two-envelops problem

The “two-envelops” problem has stimulated much discussion on probabilistic reasoning, but relatively little experimentation. The problem specifies two identical envelopes, one of which contains twice as much money as the other. You are given one of the envelopes and the option of keeping it or trading for the other envelope. Variables of interest include the possible amounts of money involved, what is known about the process by which the amounts of money were assigned to the envelopes, and whether you are allowed to know how much money is in the envelope in hand before deciding whether to keep or trade. In an earlier study, Butler and Nickerson found that when participants were allowed to know how much was in the envelope in hand, they generally elected to trade if that amount was small relative to the range of possibilities and to keep otherwise. The present experiments showed that this propensity was independent of the amount of money in the envelopes. Participants made decisions with a strong bias for avoiding the risk of losing by trading, particularly when the amount in hand was known and large relative to the range of possible amounts, regardless of the absolute value of the gamble. The results illustrate the dependence of thinking on the context in which it occurs, and demonstrate a tendency to treat quantities that are large or small relative to a particular context in which they are encountered as though they were large or small in a more general sense.     

Impression making by résumé layout: Its impact on the probability of being shortlisted

This study examines the effect of the graphical layout of résumés on the shortlisting of applicants for employment interviews. Previous research has investigated the effect of bad printing quality, but this research has explored the impact of a creative layout of résumés of equal quality. A sample of 90 respondents (half professional recruiters, half students) was asked to rank 12 candidates applying for one vacancy. All 12 candidates were presented an equal number of times in three different layout formats—formal on white paper, coloured, and “creative” design. Results suggest that the graphical design may have a substantial impact on the likelihood of being shortlisted, where formal designs were preferred over the “creative” layouts. Professional recruiters were only slightly less influenced by the layout than nonprofessionals. Implications for employers and jobseekers are discussed.     

The role of prior knowledge in error correction for younger and older adults

Previous work has demonstrated that, when given feedback, younger adults are more likely to correct high-confidence errors compared with low-confidence errors, a finding termed the hypercorrection effect. Research examining the hypercorrection effect in both older and younger adults has demonstrated that the relationship between confidence and error correction was stronger for younger adults compared with older adults. However, recent work suggests that error correction is largely related to prior knowledge, while confidence may primarily serve as a proxy for prior knowledge. Prior knowledge generally remains stable or increases with age; thus, the current experiment explored how both confidence and prior knowledge contributed to error correction in younger and older adults. Participants answered general knowledge questions, rated how confident they were that their response was correct, received correct answer feedback, and rated their prior knowledge of the correct response. Overall, confidence was related to error correction for younger adults, but this relationship was much smaller for older adults. However, prior knowledge was strongly related to error correction for both younger and older adults. Confidence alone played little unique role in error correction after controlling for the role of prior knowledge. These data demonstrate that prior knowledge largely predicts error correction and suggests that both older and younger adults can use their prior knowledge to effectively correct errors in memory.     

Infants' understanding of occlusion of others' line-of-sight: Implications for an emerging theory of mind

Infants' gaze following provides information about their understanding of others' perception and attention. Gaze following when the other looks in the presence (and absence) of visual obstacles can be especially informative. In the present study the gaze-following behaviour of 14- and 18-month-old infants was examined in opaque barrier, clear barrier, and non-barrier situations in order to investigate whether infants at this age understand the referential nature of looking. A hypothesis positing that infants grasp the referential nature of gaze would predict that infants would not follow gaze when the looker's gaze is blocked (as in an opaque barrier situation), but would follow gaze in both non-barrier and clear barrier situations. This hypothesis was contrasted with two other “leaner” interpretations predicting contrasting patterns of looking in the same situations. Results showed that both 18- and 14-month-old infants followed gaze as predicted by the richer, referential account.     

Pricing risk and ambiguity: The effect of perspective taking

In the valuation of uncertain prospects, a difference is often observed between selling and buying perspectives. This paper distinguishes between risk (known probabilities) and ambiguity (unknown probabilities) in decisions under uncertainty and shows that the valuation disparity increases under ambiguity compared to risk. It is found that both the comparative versus noncomparative evaluation of risky and ambiguous prospects and the uniqueness of the valuation perspective (either seller or buyer) moderate this increase in the disparity under ambiguity. The finding is consistent with recent theoretical accounts of pricing under uncertainty. We discuss implications for market behaviour and for the ambiguity paradigm as a research tool.     

Up north and down south: Implicit associations between topography and cardinal direction

Route planners show a reliable tendency to select south- relative to north-going routes between two horizontally (east/west) aligned landmarks, suggesting the application of a north-is-up heuristic (Brunyé, Mahoney, Gardony, & Taylor, 2010). The source of this north-is-up bias remains unknown, and there is no strong evidence to suggest that it is due to explicit strategy use. In four experiments, we attempt to further elucidate the source of this effect by testing whether it can be attributed to implicit associations between cardinal direction (north/south) and topography (mountainous/level terrain). Experiments 1 and 2 used an adapted Implicit Association Test and demonstrate automatically activated judgements that associate north with mountainous and south with relatively level terrain. Experiment 3 rules out the possibility that this effect is due to the local topography of New England by replicating in participants from the topographically dissimilar Midwestern United States. Finally, Experiment 4 tests the relative contribution of implicit versus explicit associations between cardinal direction and topography in predicting route-planning asymmetries; we show that implicit associations are a stronger predictor of southern route biases than explicit processes. Overall, results demonstrate that the conceptualization of space can be driven by physically unfounded implicit associations between cardinal directions and topographical features, and these associations are at least partially responsible for southern route preferences.