‘Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is!’: Effects of Streaks on Confidence and Betting in a Binary Choice Task

Human choice under uncertainty is influenced by erroneous beliefs about randomness. In simple binary choice tasks, such as red/black predictions in roulette, long outcome runs (e.g. red, red, red) typically increase the tendency to predict the other outcome (i.e. black), an effect labeled the “gambler's fallacy.” In these settings, participants may also attend to streaks in their predictive performance. Winning and losing streaks are thought to affect decision confidence, although prior work indicates conflicting directions. Over three laboratory experiments involving red/black predictions in a sequential roulette task, we sought to identify the effects of outcome runs and winning/losing streaks upon color predictions, decision confidence and betting behavior. Experiments 1 (n = 40) and 3 (n = 40) obtained trial‐by‐trial confidence ratings, with a win/no win payoff and a no loss/loss payoff, respectively. Experiment 2 (n = 39) obtained a trial‐by‐trial bet amount on an equivalent scale. In each experiment, the gambler's fallacy was observed on choice behavior after color runs and, in experiment 2, on betting behavior after color runs. Feedback streaks exerted no reliable influence on confidence ratings, in either payoff condition. Betting behavior, on the other hand, increased as a function of losing streaks. The increase in betting on losing streaks is interpreted as a manifestation of loss chasing; these data help clarify the psychological mechanisms underlying loss chasing and caution against the use of betting measures (“post‐decision wagering”) as a straightforward index of decision confidence. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Influencing choice without awareness

Forcing occurs when a magician influences the audience’s decisions without their awareness. To investigate the mechanisms behind this effect, we examined several stimulus and personality predictors. In Study 1, a magician flipped through a deck of playing cards while participants were asked to choose one. Although the magician could influence the choice almost every time (98%), relatively few (9%) noticed this influence. In Study 2, participants observed rapid series of cards on a computer, with one target card shown longer than the rest. We expected people would tend to choose this card without noticing that it was shown longest. Both stimulus and personality factors predicted the choice of card, depending on whether the influence was noticed. These results show that combining real-world and laboratory research can be a powerful way to study magic and can provide new methods to study the feeling of free will.     

Measuring information demand of a dynamic in-vehicle display while driving – A study evaluating the MARS (Masking Action Relevant Stimuli) method

The MARS (Masking Action Relevant Stimuli) method assesses information demand for dynamic stimuli while driving. An action relevant stimulus is masked and the driver presses a button to unmask the stimulus for a limited period. We interpreted button presses as information demand. Following our previous research (Rittger, Kiesel, Schmidt, & Maag, 2014), the current study further evaluates the method. We applied the MARS method to a dynamic in-vehicle display containing recommendations from a traffic light assistant. In a driving simulator, drivers approached intersections with different traffic light phasing. The display either presented simple or complex information. In half of the drives, the participants used the MARS method. The study had a full within subjects design and fixations were recorded in all conditions. The results showed that the information demand varied according to the information in the display and the traffic light phase. A comparison of button presses with fixations showed that one unmasking interval came along with one fixation on the display. As a conclusion, the MARS method can distinguish between conditions with high and low information demand for the display. Button presses relate to fixations on the display. Hence, the MARS method is a promising tool to assess the information demand in dynamic environments and can be applied as an extension or alternative for eye tracking.     

Multi-stage mental process for economic choice in capuchins

We studied economic choice behavior in capuchin monkeys by offering them to choose between two different foods available in variable amounts. When monkeys selected between familiar foods, their choice patterns were well-described in terms of relative value of the two foods. A leading view in economics and biology is that such behavior results from stimulus-response associations acquired through experience. According to this view, values are not psychologically real; they can only be defined a posteriori. One prediction of this associative model is that animals faced for the first time with a new pair of foods learn to choose between them gradually. We tested this prediction. Surprisingly, we find that monkeys choose as effectively between new pairs of foods as they choose between familiar pairs of foods. We therefore, propose a cognitive model in which economic choice results from a two-stage mental process of value-assignment and decision-making. In a follow-up experiment, we find that the relative value assigned to three foods in sessions in which we tested them against each other combine according to transitivity.     

Decision making and confidence given uncertain advice

We study human decision making in a simple forced-choice task that manipulates the frequency and accuracy of available information. Empirically, we find that people make decisions consistent with the advice provided, but that their subjective confidence in their decisions shows 2 interesting properties. First, people's confidence does not depend solely on the accuracy of the advice. Rather, confidence seems to be influenced by both the frequency and accuracy of the advice. Second, people are less confident in their guessed decisions when they have to make relatively more of them. Theoretically, we develop and evaluate a type of sequential sampling process model—known as a self-regulating accumulator—that accounts for both decision making and confidence. The model captures the regularities in people's behavior with interpretable parameter values, and we show its ability to fit the data is not due to excessive model complexity. Using the model, we draw conclusions about some properties of human reasoning under uncertainty.     

Confidence in accuracy moderates the benefits of retrieval practice

ABSTRACT

The effect of Retrieval Practice refers to the phenomenon that taking a practice test is more effective for learning than re-study, probably due to the benefit from processes underlying successful retrievals during practice. However, it is rarely studied whether other processes (e.g., metacognitive monitoring) during retrieval practice may also play an important role. In two experiments, we examined whether the effectiveness of retrieval was affected by subjects’ confidence in their retrieval success. Subjects studied word-pairs and rated their confidence after each practice test trial (cued-recall in Exp.1, multiple choice in Exp.2), or re-study trial. In both experiments, we observed the classic retrieval practice effect. Moreover, in Exp.2, the benefits differed as a function of subjects’ confidence in their retrieval performance: the effect of retrieval practice only emerged for high-confidence trials with higher than 56% confidence. In summary, the retrieval practice only facilitates the retention of correct answers with high confidence.     

无意识情绪对建议接受的影响

以101名大学生为被试,用掩蔽刺激启动无意识情绪,探讨无意识情绪对建议接受程度的影响,并分析自信度在其中的作用.结果表明:(1)相较于中性情绪,无意识正性情绪或无意识负性情绪会使个体更倾向于采纳他人建议,且无意识负性情绪的作用更明显;(2)个体的自信度水平在情绪和建议接受度之间具有调节作用;(3)在接受建议后,无意识负性情绪和无意识正性情绪组个体的自信度提升量高于中性情绪组,且无意识负性情绪组提高更多.     

Selfless giving

In four studies, we show that people who anticipate more personal change over time give more to others. We measure and manipulate participants’ beliefs in the persistence of the defining psychological features of a person (e.g., his or her beliefs, values, and life goals) and measure generosity, finding support for the hypothesis in three studies using incentive-compatible charitable donation decisions and one involving hypothetical choices about sharing with loved ones.     

The response dynamics of preferential choice

The ubiquity of psychological process models requires an increased degree of sophistication in the methods and metrics that we use to evaluate them. We contribute to this venture by capitalizing on recent work in cognitive science analyzing response dynamics, which shows that the bearing information processing dynamics have on intended action is also revealed in the motor system. This decidedly “embodied” view suggests that researchers are missing out on potential dependent variables with which to evaluate their models—those associated with the motor response that produces a choice. The current work develops a method for collecting and analyzing such data in the domain of decision making. We first validate this method using widely normed stimuli from the International Affective Picture System (Experiment 1), and demonstrate that curvature in response trajectories provides a metric of the competition between choice options. We next extend the method to risky decision making (Experiment 2) and develop predictions for three popular classes of process model. The data provided by response dynamics demonstrate that choices contrary to the maxim of risk seeking in losses and risk aversion in gains may be the product of at least one “online” preference reversal, and can thus begin to discriminate amongst the candidate models. Finally, we incorporate attentional data collected via eye-tracking (Experiment 3) to develop a formal computational model of joint information sampling and preference accumulation. In sum, we validate response dynamics for use in preferential choice tasks and demonstrate the unique conclusions afforded by response dynamics over and above traditional methods.