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181.
Sunita S. Ahlawat 《决策行为杂志》1999,12(1):71-88
Sequential processing of evidence may lead to recency effect, a potential bias in judgment. The present research seeks to extend the literature on recency effects by assessing the potential moderating influence of team work: whether group decision making moderates the severity of recency effects predicted by Hogarth and Einhorn (1992), and whether group processing influences the accuracy of, and confidence in memory for evidence. Experienced auditors from a Big‐6 accounting firm made audit judgments, either individually or as groups. They were randomly assigned to one of two levels of evidence presentation order. After performing the judgment task, participants completed two evidence recognition tests. Consistent with prior findings, recency effects on judgments were observed, but only for individuals. Group judgments or audit reports were not affected by recency. Order effects, however, did not translate into different choices of audit reports, and did not persist in memories of either individuals or groups. As expected, group memory was more accurate than individual memory and groups were more confident than individuals. Overall, confidence in accurate memories was greater than in inaccurate ones. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
182.
A number of multi-criteria decision support techniques have emerged in recent years that use varying computational approaches to arrive at the most desirable solution and thereby ‘recommend’ a course of action. Decision makers who use the results of this analytic work should be assured that the computational schemes used by their supporting analysts or decision support software produce the appropriate solutions. We conducted a series of simulation experiments that compared the top-ranked options resulting from the computational algorithms that support Multi-Attribute Value Theory (MAVT) and three methods that are reported in the literature that allow rank reversals, the change in rank order of two options when an unrelated option is added or deleted from the analysis: the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Percentaging and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). We also included a Fuzzy algorithm proposed by Yager to gauge its consistency with the other algorithms, even though it is not subject to rank reversals. These experiments demonstrated that the MAVT and AHP techniques, when provided with the same decision outcome data, very often identify the same alternative as ‘best’. The other techniques are noticeably less consistent with MAVT, the Fuzzy algorithm being the least consistent. The situations under which the most frequent and significant differences occurred were dependent upon the method. The results of our experiments indicate that other issues (e.g. the processes used for problem structuring and the elicitation of value weights) are likely to be of greater significance to problem outcome (based on our experience) than the choice between the computational algorithms of MAVT and AHP. The results cause us to be concerned about the use of the other methods. 相似文献
183.
Research has indicated that in West Europe males on average are often found to be more experienced about computing than females, and to have more positive attitudes and self efficacy (self confidence) towards computing than females. Research has also shown that some East Europe countries have had relatively greater female involvement with technology, engineering and computing than West Europe. 200 Romanian and 148 Scottish students completed a computer self efficacy scale. Overall males were more confident than females in advanced and file and software computer skills, but of similar confidence for beginning skills. Scots of both genders were more confident than their Romanian equivalents for beginning computer skills, whilst Romanians were more confident for advanced computer skills. The 3 elements of the self efficacy scale — beginning, advanced and file and software skills — correlated positively with each other. The results were interpreted as showing both similarity and difference in computing self efficacy between Scotland and Romania. 相似文献
184.
ObjectiveThe purpose of this research was to study the preoccupations assistant referees had to participate in decision making about duels during football games.DesignResearch adopted a phenomenological framework to investigate the assistant referees’ lived experiences in order to understand their activity when they judged duels in match.MethodThis study investigated six professional football matches. Researchers conducted a participatory observation of the refereeing team before each match. Twelve self-confrontation interviews with each assistant referee of each match were conducted in order to make him/her describing his/her unfolding lived experience during the match.ResultsIn case of players’ duels, the perception of contextual cues enabled the assistants to appraise the occurring of a decision process with the central referee. For the assistants, the occurring of a decision process with the central referee meant his priority to intervene in the adjudication of duels, while the absence of decision process with the central referee meant for the assistants the possibility to intervene. The assistants adjusted their way of judging duels to how the central referee judged the previous ones.ConclusionsThe participation of assistants in decision making about duels depends on their preoccupations concerning the central referee’s priority. The way assistants perceive the central referee’s contextual judgment shapes the way they adjudicate duels. A latent intention to coordinate with the central referee, in relation with their collaborative tasks, is embedded in their preoccupations. Our results are a platform to develop further research about the referees’ collective activity. 相似文献
185.
ABSTRACTDriving is a complex everyday task. Every year a huge number of driving accidents around the world causes serious physical and mental injuries and deaths. The correct estimation of the remaining time to reach the other vehicles on the road, known as time to collision (TTC), is an important factor to avoid accidents. In this study, we aimed to use a drift-diffusion model (DDM) to better understand the participants’ estimation of TTC in two driving experiments. Both experiments were the same, except that in one of them participants were asked to finish the experiment as fast as they could, while in the other experiment there was no time constraint. DDM fitted the data from all participants well in both experiments according to the chi-square goodness of fit criterion. Also, results showed that time pressure increases subjects’ estimated TTC, the rate of accumulation of sensory information and the response threshold. 相似文献
186.
187.
We present a theory of decision by sampling (DbS) in which, in contrast with traditional models, there are no underlying psychoeconomic scales. Instead, we assume that an attribute's subjective value is constructed from a series of binary, ordinal comparisons to a sample of attribute values drawn from memory and is its rank within the sample. We assume that the sample reflects both the immediate distribution of attribute values from the current decision's context and also the background, real-world distribution of attribute values. DbS accounts for concave utility functions; losses looming larger than gains; hyperbolic temporal discounting; and the overestimation of small probabilities and the underestimation of large probabilities. 相似文献
188.
Olafsen KS Rønning JA Dahl LB Ulvund SE Handegård BH Kaaresen PI 《Scandinavian journal of psychology》2007,48(6):499-509
Responsiveness in prematurely and term-born infants was studied cross-sectionally in relation to maternal confidence. Orientation and arousal were measured in 140 prematurely (mean BW 1,398 g, GA 30.1 weeks) and 75 term-born infants (mean BW 3,613 g, GA 39.3 weeks) with the Neonatal Behavioral Assessment Scales. Mothers filled out the Maternal Confidence Questionnaire and a modified version of the Parenting Stress Index. Prematurely born infants had a significantly lower level of arousal than term-born neonates. Responsiveness was not associated with maternal confidence. Lower confidence was associated with primiparity in both groups of mothers. Multiparous mothers of prematurely born infants had significantly lower levels of confidence than multiparous mothers of term-born infants. Confidence was significantly associated with stress for mothers of prematurely and term-born infants, and may be focused in follow-up after giving birth. Prematurely born infants should be examined more thoroughly in aspects of arousal at the time of discharge. 相似文献
189.
M. Albert 《Synthese》2007,156(3):587-603
Probability theory is important because of its relevance for decision making, which also means: its relevance for the single
case. The propensity theory of objective probability, which addresses the single case, is subject to two problems: Humphreys’
problem of inverse probabilities and the problem of the reference class. The paper solves both problems by restating the propensity
theory using (an objectivist version of) Pearl’s approach to causality and probability, and by applying a decision-theoretic
perspective. Contrary to a widely held view, decision making on the basis of given propensities can proceed without a subjective-probability
supplement to propensities. 相似文献
190.
Three experiments investigated whether participants used Take The Best (TTB) Configural, a fast and frugal heuristic that processes configurations of cues when making inferences concerning which of two alternatives has a higher criterion value. Participants were presented with a compound cue that was nonlinearly separable from its elements. The compound was highly valid in Experiments 1 and 2, but invalid in Experiment 3. Participants’ causal mental models were manipulated via instructions: participants were either told that cues acted through the same causal mechanism (configural causal model), through different causal mechanisms (elemental causal model), or the causal mechanisms were not specified (neutral causal model). A high percentage of participants used TTB-Configural when they had a configural causal model and a highly valid compound existed, suggesting that causal knowledge can be incorporated in otherwise very basic cognitive mechanisms to allow fine-grained adaptation to complex task structures. 相似文献