问题性网络游戏使用青少年未来取向的助推研究

摘要：以问题性网络游戏使用青少年为研究对象,基于锚定效应助推国民身心健康的理论前提和态度改变理论视角,通过实验1和实验2分别建立未来取向内部锚和未来取向外部锚,检验未来取向内部锚和外部锚对减少问题性网络游戏使用青少年游戏时间的有效性。结果表明,未来取向内部和外部的助推方式,均能够有效促进问题性网络游戏使用青少年游戏时间的减少,提高了决策效用。     

On the evaluation of one-sided evidence

We examine predictions and judgments of confidence based on one-sided evidence. Some subjects saw arguments for only one side of a legal dispute while other subjects (called ‘jurors’) saw arguments for both sides. Subjects predicted the number of jurors who favored the plaintiff in each case. Subjects who saw only one side made predictions that were biased in favor of that side. Furthermore, they were more confident but generally less accurate than subjects who saw both sides. The results indicate that people do not compensate sufficiently for missing information even when it is painfully obvious that the information available to them is incomplete. A simple manipulation that required subjects to evaluate the relative strength of the opponent's side greatly reduced the tendency to underweigh missing evidence.     

Explanations and Evaluations by Turks and Dutchmen of Norm Violating Ingroup and Outgroup Behaviour

Group-serving biases in the explanation and evaluation of norm violating ingroup and outgroup behaviour are investigated. The intergroup relationship concerns autochthonous Dutchmen and allochthonous Turks living in The Netherlands. It was hypothesized that Dutch observers exhibit group-serving biases. No hypothesis was formulated for the Turks. A 2×2 design was employed with actor's group membership (ingroup or outgroup), and observer's group membership (Dutch or Turkish) as factors. 50 Dutch and 50 Turkish pupils responded to a hypothetical norm violating situation. The Dutch displayed a group-serving bias on some variables, but ingroup derogation on others. The Turks engaged in a consistent group-serving bias. These outcomes are discussed in terms of the groups need to strive for a positive social identity vis-a)-vis one another and the role explaining away negative ingroup behaviour in fulfilling this need.     

Selecting a new technology strategy using multiattribute,multilevel decision trees

Research indicates that selecting a strategy to best exploit a new technology is a complex decision-making process. The task involves making a series of decisions with multiple alternatives, each to be evaluated by multiple criteria whose values have high levels of uncertainty. This paper presents a methodology for modelling a new technology decision using decision trees and an optimizing algorithm. A problem of a mining company considering the adoption of new technology is used to illustrate the decision-making task and modelling methodology. A numerical solution to the case demonstrates the potential of the optimizing technique in strategy selection.     

Preference structures and threshold models

Preferences are often represented in terms of a function, in the deterministic case as well as in the probabilistic case. In the present paper we develop a new numerical representation of preference structures for which the strict preference relation (P) is without circuit but not necessarily transitive. Moreover, we investigate the consequences of the representation for the usual preference structures. In particular, we propose new formulations for the numerical representation of the interval order structure.     

A multi-objective mathematical programming problem with fuzzy relation constraints

In this study we discuss the problem of multi-objective mathematical programming with constraints defined by ‘max-min’ composite fuzzy relation equations. Since the feasible region is normally non-convex, the properties of the efficient points of a non-convex feasible region under multi-objectives are investigated and illustrated by examples. The necessary and sufficient conditions are proposed and proved. To facilitate decisions, a procedure that transforms these efficient points of an interval-valued decision space into a constant-valued decision space is proposed when the level of confidence is given by a decision maker. Then the transformed problem becomes a multi-attribute decision problem that can be evaluated by Yager's method to find the optimal alternative.     

Decomposition of multivariate utility functions in non-additive expected utility theory

In expected utility many results have been derived that give necessary and/or sufficient conditions for a multivariate utility function to be decomposable into lower-dimensional functions. In particular, multilinear, multiplicative and additive decompositions have been widely discussed. These utility functions can be more easily assessed in practical situations. In this paper we present a theory of decomposition in the context of nonadditive expected utility such as anticipated utility or Choquet expected utility. We show that many of the results used in conventional expected utility carry over to these more general frameworks. If preferences over lotteries depend only on the marginal probability distributions, then in expected utility the utility function is additively decomposable. We show that in anticipated utility the marginality condition implies not only that the utility function is additively decomposable but also that the distortion function is the identity function. We further demonstrate that a decision maker who is bivariate risk neutral has a utility function that is additively decomposable and a distortion function q for which q(½) = ½.     

Causal illusion as a cognitive basis of pseudoscientific beliefs

Causal illusion has been proposed as a cognitive mediator of pseudoscientific beliefs. However, previous studies have only tested the association between this cognitive bias and a closely related but different type of unwarranted beliefs, those related to superstition and paranormal phenomena. Participants (n = 225) responded to a novel questionnaire of pseudoscientific beliefs designed for this study. They also completed a contingency learning task in which a possible cause, infusion intake, and a desired effect, headache remission, were actually non-contingent. Volunteers with higher scores on the questionnaire also presented stronger causal illusion effects. These results support the hypothesis that causal illusions might play a fundamental role in the endorsement of pseudoscientific beliefs.