Probability, logic and the cognitive foundations of rational belief

Since Pascal introduced the idea of mathematical probability in the 17th century discussions of uncertainty and “rational” belief have been dogged by philosophical and technical disputes. Furthermore, the last quarter century has seen an explosion of new questions and ideas, stimulated by developments in the computer and cognitive sciences. Competing ideas about probability are often driven by different intuitions about the nature of belief that arise from the needs of different domains (e.g., economics, management theory, engineering, medicine, the life sciences etc). Taking medicine as our focus we develop three lines of argument (historical, practical and cognitive) that suggest that traditional views of probability cannot accommodate all the competing demands and diverse constraints that arise in complex real-world domains. A model of uncertain reasoning based on a form of logical argumentation appears to unify many diverse ideas. The model has precursors in informal discussions of argumentation due to Toulmin, and the notion of logical probability advocated by Keynes, but recent developments in artificial intelligence and cognitive science suggest ways of resolving epistemological and technical issues that they could not address.     

背景信息导航帮助和认知风格对超文本使用的影响

本文考察了背景信息导航帮助(结构背景信息导航帮助、时间背景导航信息帮助和综合背景信息导航帮助)和认知风格(场独立倾向和场依存倾向)对超文本使用过程中导航绩效和学习效果的影响。结果表明：(1)认知风格是研究超文本系统的一个敏感指标：在超文本阅读过程中,场依存倾向的人比场独立倾向的人容易迷失,在某种程度上,学习效果要低于场独立倾向的人;(2)最优路径偏离可以敏感地反映出超文本网络空间中使用者的迷失程度;(3)主观迷失感与导航绩效相比,更能有效地预测超文本环境下的学习效果。     

Saving the worst for last: The effect of time horizon on the efficiency of negotiating benefits and burdens

Three experiments explored the effect of outcome delays—longer time horizons for the realization of outcomes—on the efficiency of negotiated agreements. We hypothesized that there would be a positive relationship between a longer temporal distance to the consequences of negotiated agreements and the efficiency of those agreements. Outcome delays did increase the efficiency of the negotiated agreements. In addition, type of resource, burden or benefit, moderated this relationship. Because negotiating for burdens is more difficult than negotiating for benefits in the present, the salutary discounting effects of outcome delays were greater for burdens. The multifaceted effects of time on negotiations are discussed.     

Group decision process and incrementalism in organizational decision making

In two studies examining resource allocation, support is found for the notion that group decisions are affected in systematic ways depending on whether or not there was individual consideration of the problem before meeting as a group. Specifically, compared to no prior consideration groups, prior consideration groups (1) escalate their commitment more in progress (i.e., ongoing) decisions, and (2) are less willing to concentrate resources on a single project in adoption (i.e., resource utilization) decisions. The findings challenge the blanket assertion that promoting divergent views in a group decision context is always related to better decisions.     

Potential perceptual bases for successful use of a vibrotactile speech perception aid

This paper examines the possibility that perception of vibrotactile speech stimuli is enhanced in adults with early and life-long use of hearing aids. We present evidence that vibrotactile aid benefit in adults is directly related to the age at which the hearing aid was fitted and the duration of its use. The stimulus mechanism responsible for this effect is hypothesized to be long-term vibrotactile stimulation by high powered hearing aids. We speculate on possible mechanisms for enhanced vibrotactile speech perception as the result of hearing aid use: (1) long-term experience receiving degraded or impoverished speech stimuli results in a speech processing system that is more effective for novel stimuli, independent of perceptual modality; and/or (2) long-term sensory/perceptual experience causes neural changes that result in more effective delivery of speech information via somatosensory pathways.     

Who are maximizers? Future oriented and highly numerate individuals

Two studies investigated cognitive mechanisms that may be associated with people's tendency to maximize. Maximizers are individuals who are spending a great amount of effort in order to find the very best option in a decision situation, rather than stopping the decision process when they encounter a satisfying option. These studies show that maximizers are more future oriented than other people, which may motivate them to invest the extra energy into optimal choices. Maximizers also have higher numerical skills, possibly facilitating the cognitive processes involved with decision trade‐offs.     

The modified star graph and the petal diagram: two new visual aids for discrete alternative multicriteria decision making

Many studies have looked into the provisions of visual aids to multicriteria decision making. However, most of them have separated the display of alternative profiles and criteria weight information into two displays. This makes the analysis of the relationship between the criteria and alternatives and the effect of changing the criteria weights on the decision difficult. In this study, displays that can incorporate the display of both alternative profiles and criteria weight information for discrete alternative multicriteria decision-making problems are examined. The simple additive model is the multicriteria analysis method used. The result is two new visual aids for representing data of multicriteria decision-making problems, the modified star graph and the petal diagram. This paper discusses the two displays and compares their strengths and weaknesses. The results of a preliminary test conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of the displays are also included. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Alexithymia and risk preferences: Predicting risk behaviour across decision domains

Risk‐taking is a critical health factor as it plays a key role in several diseases and is related to a number of health risk factors. The aim of the present study is to investigate the role of alexithymia in predicting risk preferences across decision domains. One hundred and thirteen participants filled out an alexithymia scale (Toronto Alexithymia Scale—TAS‐20), impulsivity and venturesomeness measures (I7 scale), and—1 month later—the Cognitive Appraisal of Risky Events (CARE questionnaire). The hierarchical regression analyses showed that alexithymia positively predicted risk preferences in two domains: aggressive/illegal behaviour and irresponsible academic/work behaviour. The results also highlighted a significant association of the alexithymia facet, externally oriented thinking (EOT), with risky sexual activities. EOT also significantly predicted aggressive/illegal behaviour and irresponsible academic/work behaviour. The alexithymia facet, Difficulty Identifying Feelings, significantly predicted irresponsible academic/work behaviour. The results of the present study provide interesting insights into the connection between alexithymia and risk preferences across different decision domains. Implications for future studies and applied interventions are discussed.     

Bioinspired decision-making for a socially interactive robot

Nowadays, robots and humans coexist in real settings where robots need to interact autonomously making their own decisions. Many applications require that robots adapt their behavior to different users and remember each user’s preferences to engage them in the interaction. To this end, we propose a decision making system for social robots that drives their actions taking into account the user and the robot’s state. This system is based on bio-inspired concepts, such as motivations, drives and wellbeing, that facilitate the rise of natural behaviors to ease the acceptance of the robot by the users. The system has been designed to promote the human-robot interaction by using drives and motivations related with social aspects, such as the users’ satisfaction or the need of social interaction. Furthermore, the changes of state produced by the users’ exogenous actions have been modeled as transitional states that are considered when the next robot’s action has to be selected. Our system has been evaluated considering two different user profiles. In the proposed system, user’s preferences are considered and alter the homeostatic process that controls the decision making system. As a result, using reinforcement learning algorithms and considering the robot’s wellbeing as the reward function, the social robot Mini has learned from scratch two different policies of action, one for each user, that fit the users’ preferences. The robot learned behaviors that maximize its wellbeing as well as keep the users engaged in the interactions.     

Are situation awareness and decision-making in driving totally conscious processes? Results of a hazard prediction task

Detecting danger in the driving environment is an indispensable task to guarantee safety which depends on the driver’s ability to predict upcoming hazards. But does correct prediction lead to an appropriate response? This study advances hazard perception research by investigating the link between successful prediction and response selection. Three groups of drivers (learners, novices and experienced drivers) were recruited, with novice and experienced drivers further split into offender and non-offender groups. Specifically, this works aims to develop an improved Spanish Hazard Prediction Test and to explore the differences in Situation Awareness, (SA: perception, comprehension and prediction) and Decision-Making (DM) among learners, younger inexperienced and experienced drivers and between driving offenders and non-offenders. The contribution of the current work is not only theoretical; the Hazard Prediction Test is also a valid way to test Hazard Perception. The test, as well as being useful as part of the test for a driving license, could also serve a purpose in the renewal of licenses after a ban or as a way of training drivers. A sample of 121 participants watched a series of driving video clips that ended with a sudden occlusion prior to a hazard. They then answered questions to assess their SA (“What is the hazard?” “Where is it located?” “What happens next?”) and DM (“What would you do in this situation?”). This alternative to the Hazard Perception Test demonstrates a satisfactory internal consistency (Alpha = 0.750), with eleven videos achieving discrimination indices above 0.30. Learners performed significantly worse than experienced drivers when required to identify and locate the hazard. Interestingly, drivers were more accurate in answering the DM question than questions regarding SA, suggesting that drivers can choose an appropriate response manoeuvre without a totally conscious knowledge of the exact hazard.