Verbalization of Decision Strategies in Multiple‐Cue Probabilistic Inference

In multiple‐cue probabilistic inference, people choose between alternatives based on several cues, each of which is differentially associated with an alternative's overall value. Various strategies have been proposed for probabilistic inference (e.g., weighted additive, tally, and take‐the‐best). These strategies differ in how many cue values they require to enact and in how they weight each cue. Do decision makers actually use any of these strategies? Ways to investigate this question include analyzing people's choices and the cues that they reveal. However, different strategies often predict the same decisions, and search behavior says nothing about whether or how people use the information that they acquire. In this research, we attempt to elucidate which strategies participants use in a multiple‐cue probabilistic inference task by examining verbal protocols, a high‐density source of process data. The promise of verbal data is in their utility for testing detailed information processing models. To that end, we apply protocol analysis in conjunction with computational simulations. We find converging evidence across outcome measures, search measures, and verbal reports that most participants use simplifying heuristics, namely take‐the‐best. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Method for Analyzing Videotaped Genetic Counseling Sessions

This study describes the development and evaluation of a multi-item scale for analyzing the genetic counseling process, the Manchester Observation Code (MOC) for genetic counseling. The instrument is specific to the field of genetic counseling and is designed for analysis of the communication between counselor and client. Coding is done directly from videotaped sessions. Because communication is the means by which genetic counseling is accomplished, the method measures four relevant components of communication: (1) grammatical form, (2) purpose, (3) subject, and (4) cue source. The instrument enables an observer to code the counselor's statements into these four components. Three videotaped sessions were used to measure interrater reliability, or the consistency of rating for each of the four communication domains using this method. Three videotaped sessions were also used to measure test-retest reliability, or the consistency of the designed method from one time to another. A total of 21 videotaped sessions were tested using the method. A statistical measure of reliability established consistency of the designed method; Cohen's kappa yielded 0.7 for interrater reliability and 0.79 for test-retest reliability. These findings suggest this instrument may be used to identify important elements of the genetic counseling process.     

布鲁默学习测验(BLT)中文测题册试用本的编制报告

布鲁默学习测验（ＢＬＴ）是一项以学习模式为研究内容的学习过程测验。作为ＢＬＴ中文版修订工作的首要阶段,课题组在研究ＢＬＴ理论原理,测验结构和内容和基础上,结合我国中小学教学实际,以简单常用的部首和汉字为主要测验材料编制出ＢＬＴ中文版测题册试用本,并作了试测和数据分析。结果表明,试用本具有较高的信度和效度,并保持了作为学习过程测验的特色,达到了研究目的。     

Interviewing a Therapist in the Presence of a Couple: A Description of the Therapeutic Process

A therapy research team interviewed a therapist in the presence of a couple. Following each of six consecutive sessions with a couple, an interviewer posed questions to the therapist and couple. While one question was standard to each interview, other questions were generated by team members who tracked the entire process via live observation. These questions were directed first at the therapist, then at the couple, and then focused on therapeutic process and outcome. Findings of this process for the therapy system included decreasing the hierarchy within the client/therapist relationship; increasing the client ownership and energy in the therapy process; discovering the presence of parallel processes between the systems; and informing the direction of future therapy sessions. Practical, clinical implications are discussed for a variety of therapy settings.     

Coercive family processes: A replication and extension of Patterson’s coercion model

Patterson hypothesized that aggressive behavior develops in families when parents use coercion as the primary mode for controlling their children. The model has been tested with boys and older children. In this paper, through confirmatory factor analysis, we examine how well the coercion model generalizes to 5‐year‐old children (boys and girls). Our results suggest that the model fits the data similarly for boys and girls. Few sex differences in child antisocial behavior were found on observed or parent‐rated measures, nor were differences found in observed parent aversive responses to child behavior. This implies that similar coercion processes apply to both boys and girls. Aggr. Behav. 27:14–25, 2001. © 2001 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

社会交往情境中权力和反馈对情绪的影响

以往关于权力是否影响情绪的研究存在结果争议,这意味着可能存在其它因素的作用。本研究基于权力控制理论和社会距离理论,探究了社交情境中权力和反馈对情绪的影响。研究1采用经验取样法收集了140名被试五天内的1706段社交经历,研究2采用实验法考察了148名被试的社交经历。结果表明,权力和反馈对情绪存在交互影响:(1)当个体处于低权力情境时,反馈影响情绪,反馈越积极,情绪也越积极;(2)当个体获得积极反馈时,权力不影响情绪;当个体获得消极反馈时,权力影响情绪,权力越高,情绪相对更积极。本研究有助于厘清以往研究关于权力与情绪关系的争议。     

Time complexity and consistency issues in using the AHP for making group decisions

Two different ways of using the AHP in making group decisions are compared and evaluated. The first method combines different experts’ opinions before applying an eigenvalue method to obtain final weights for decision alternatives. The second, in contrast, derives each expert's rating for the decision alternatives before combining them. Both methods take into account the relative importance of different experts in making decisions. Comparison and evaluation of these two methods are made by using two criteria: time complexity and consistency indices. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the use of these two methods, and results of a mathematical simulation are presented for comparing the time complexity in different-sized problems. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Euclid: Strategic alternative assessment matrix

The vast amount of information that must be considered to solve inherently ill‐structured and complex strategic problems creates a need for tools to help decision makers (DMs) recognize the complexity of this process and develop a rational model for strategy evaluation. Over the last several decades, a philosophy and a body of intuitive and analytical methods have been developed to assist DMs in the evaluation of strategic alternatives. However, the intuitive methods lack a structured framework for the systematic evaluation of strategic alternatives while the analytical methods are not intended to capture intuitive preferences. Euclid is a simple and yet sophisticated multiobjective value analysis model that attempts to uncover some of the complexities inherent in the evaluation of strategic alternatives. The proposed model uses a series of intuitive and analytical methods including environmental scanning, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), subjective probabilities, and the theory of displaced ideal, to plot strategic alternatives on a matrix based on their Euclidean distance from the ideal alternative. Euclid is further compared to the quantitative strategic planning matrix (QSPM) in a real world application. The information provided by the users shows that Euclid can significantly enhance decision quality and the DM's confidence. Euclid is not intended to replace the DMs, rather, it provides a systematic approach to support, supplement, and ensure the internal consistency of their judgments through a series of logically sound techniques. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Field Experiment Comparing Anchored and Unanchored Criteria Weights in the Analytic Hierarchy Process

This study reports the results of a field experiment comparing the predictive validity of two approaches to multicriteria assessments: the absolute measurement mode of AHP and the absolute measurement mode of linking pin AHP. The questioning procedures of the two differ only in that the former employs unanchored criteria weight assessments and the latter anchored criteria weight assessments. The decision task required insurance agents to respond to a mailed questionnaire in which they evaluated non-monetary incentives (contests) according to (1) the public recognition received from winning, (2) the criteria for winning and (3) the nature of the reward. There were four levels for each dimension. A between subjects design was used, with each subject receiving one of the two methods. In addition, all subjects divided 100 points among four contests and these hold-out assignments were employed as a validity check. Linking pin AHP was found to be superior to conventional AHP in this experiment, lending weight to the argument that the use of unanchored criteria weights is problematic. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. J. Multi-Crit. Decis. Anal. 6 : 140–149 (1997) No. of Figures: 3. No. of Tables: 5. No. of References: 24.