Fetal Risks,Relative Risks,and Relatives' Risks

Several factors related to fetal risk render it more or less acceptable in justifying constraints on the behavior of pregnant women. Risk is an unavoidable part of pregnancy and childbirth, one that women must balance against other vital personal and family interests. Two particular issues relate to the fairness of claims that pregnant women are never entitled to put their fetuses at risk: relative risks and relatives' risks. The former have been used—often spuriously—to advance arguments against activities, such as home birth, that may incur risk; the latter implicate the nature of relationships in determining the acceptability of coercing or precluding activities. Motivated reasoning by clinicians and judges leads to inaccurate risk assessments, and judgments based on false claims to objectivity. Such judgments undermine the moral and legal standing of pregnant women and do not advance the interests of fetuses, pregnant women, families, or states.     

Who Is at Risk for Psychological Distress in Genetic Testing Programs for Hereditary Cancer Disorders?

Presymptomatic identification of disease gene carriers is becoming an increasingly common part of the clinical management of hereditary cancer disorders. With an expected increase in the number of requests for DNA testing and the limited resources for counseling, the amount of time genetic counselors are able to spend with test candidates will decrease. It is therefore important for counselors to identify persons at risk for psychological distress. Based on a review of experiences with Huntington disease and cancer patients, we describe factors likely to evoke distress in genetic cancer candidates. We also discuss the sometimes widely different ways that test candidates and their partners respond to genetic testing. By exploring risk factors for distress in relevant domains of the research, we can offer counselors guidelines for determining who may need extra counseling.     

Assessing risky public investments with MUSTARD

This paper presents a practical implementation of multicriteria methodologies based on the UTA model by Jacquet‐Lagrèze and Siskos and Quasi‐UTA model by Beuthe and Scannella, which are specified with a non‐linear, but piecewise linear, additive utility function. In contrast with the general UTA model, the Quasi‐UTA specification structures the partial utilities as recursive exponential functions of only one curvature parameter. This allows for a reduction of the quantity of information necessary to build the utility function. The software MUSTARD implements different variants of these models. Firstly, it offers the basic deterministic UTA model of disaggregation, but also its first programmed stochastic version. In both cases, the software proceeds stepwise and interactively helping the decision maker to formulate the problem and state preferences between projects; in the stochastic case, the decision maker is even helped to build the criteria distributions. The Quasi‐UTA specification can be introduced in this disaggregation model. Secondly, the software offers an aggregation model whereby the Quasi‐UTA partial utility functions are built separately through specific questioning processes. The questions relating to deterministic criteria are of the ‘direct rating type’, while those of the stochastic criteria are either of the ‘variable probability’ or the ‘variable outcome’ type. The criteria weights can be assessed by the ‘swing weight’ method or by a UTA‐II side‐program. As an example as well as a test of the Quasi‐UTA aggregation approach, the paper presents its application to a real problem of selecting road investment projects in Belgium. Several experts and civil servants were interviewed, and their individual utility functions derived. The projects are ranked according to their rate of return, which is computed on the basis of the projects certain equivalent money value. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Investigating the roots of the favourite–longshot bias: an analysis of decision making by supply‐ and demand‐side agents in parallel betting markets

This paper offers new insights into the behavioural origins of the ‘favourite–longshot’ bias — an established feature of betting markets, whereby longshots win less often than the subjective probabilities imply and favourites more often. A number of alternative explanations has been offered for this phenomenon but the main debate focuses on whether it is caused by the behaviour of those supplying betting markets (bookmakers) or of the demand‐side agents in these markets (bettors) . This study analyses a new data source which offers detailed information for a large sample of recent UK horseraces on decision‐making behaviour within the parimutuel and the parallel bookmaker‐based betting markets. The results offer strong evidence for the existence of the ‘favourite–longshot’ bias in bookmaker‐based markets, with a corresponding absence of such an effect in the parimutuel case. These results offer support for the view that the origins of the ‘favourite–longshot’ bias lie principally in the decisions of bookmakers rather than in the decisions of bettors. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Making sense of mentoring or mentoring making sense? Reflections on the mentoring process by adult mentors with young people†

This paper sets out to look at the processes of mentoring from the perspectives of adult mentors who were interviewed as part of a wider study of young people's perceptions and understandings of informal mentoring processes. It seeks to clarify the processes of mentoring within the context of the ‘risk society’ by posing the question, how do young people and mentors perceive these processes? What do mentors get out of the mentoring relationship? Findings from a qualitative study of informal mentoring relationships are drawn on to suggest that the mentors perceive the experience of being identified as a mentor and the processes of mentoring in highly positive terms. It is argued that this provides a form of ‘cultural capital for mentors’ in helping them to make sense of the challenges and dilemmas they face as adults. It is concluded that this finding has important implications for the design of mentoring interventions with young people. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The affect heuristic in judgments of risks and benefits

This paper re‐examines the commonly observed inverse relationship between perceived risk and perceived benefit. We propose that this relationship occurs because people rely on affect when judging the risk and benefit of specific hazards. Evidence supporting this proposal is obtained in two experimental studies. Study 1 investigated the inverse relationship between risk and benefit judgments under a time‐pressure condition designed to limit the use of analytic thought and enhance the reliance on affect. As expected, the inverse relationship was strengthened when time pressure was introduced. Study 2 tested and confirmed the hypothesis that providing information designed to alter the favorability of one's overall affective evaluation of an item (say nuclear power) would systematically change the risk and benefit judgments for that item. Both studies suggest that people seem prone to using an ‘affect heuristic’ which improves judgmental efficiency by deriving both risk and benefit evaluations from a common source—affective reactions to the stimulus item. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Disaster risk reduction: Psychological perspectives on preparedness

Facilitating people's ability to anticipate, prepare for and recover from disaster is an important component of the UNISDR strategy for disaster risk reduction. Following a discussion of the functional characteristics of preparedness, this paper first discusses how hazard characteristics and psychological constructs influence people's ability to anticipate uncertain future events. It then reviews how psychological theories (Health Belief Model, Protection Motivation Theory, PrE Theory, Theory of Planned Behaviour, Critical Awareness Theory, Social Marketing, Protective Action Decision Model, Social Capital, Community Engagement Theory and Social Identity Theory) can inform understanding of preparedness for likely and current hazard events. Discussion then then turns to applying concepts and theories to understanding preparedness for current disasters. The all-hazards and cross-cultural applicability of preparedness theory is discussed, as are a need for a critical appraisal of preparedness, its predictors, and the nature and development of the preparedness process and its application in facilitating effective intervention strategies.     

The development of violence from age 8 to 61

The main aim of this study is to investigate the development of violence from childhood to adulthood. In the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development (CSDD), 411 London males have been followed up from age 8 to 48 in interviews, and from age 10 to 61 in criminal records; 19% were convicted for violence. There was a surprising amount of violence committed at older ages (40–61). The number of violence convictions was similar at ages 10–20, 21–39, and 40–61. There was considerable continuity in violent offending from ages 10–20 to 40–61. There was also continuity in self-reported violence from ages 15–18 to 43–48, and violence convictions were related to self-reported violence at all ages. The most important childhood risk factors for violence convictions were high daring or risk-taking, low verbal intelligence, a disrupted family, harsh parental discipline, high hyperactivity, and large family size. The extent to which these risk factors predicted violence at ages 40–61 was noteworthy. The “integrated cognitive antisocial potential (ICAP)” theory was proposed to explain the development of violence, and methods of preventing violence, targeting childhood risk factors, were reviewed.     

Violence Exposure and Sexual Risk Behaviors for African American Adolescent Girls: The Protective Role of Natural Mentorship and Organizational Religious Involvement

African American adolescent girls are at increased risk of being exposed to community violence and being diagnosed with a sexually transmitted infection. Fewer studies, however, have examined the protective roles of natural mentorship and organizational religious involvement as potential moderators that could lessen the effects of violence exposure on health risk behavior. Data from 273 African American ninth grade girls were used to test hypothesized independent and moderated‐moderation models. Results suggest that natural mentorship and religious involvement were protective for girls who reported at least one mentor and moderate to high levels of religious involvement. Our findings may be relevant for community stakeholders and organizations that directly interact with religious institutions and community programs that focus on outreach to African American adolescent girls.