The loss‐bet paradox: Actuaries,accountants, and other numerate people rate numerically inferior gambles as superior

Psychologists have convincingly demonstrated that preferences are not always stable and, instead, are often “constructed” based on information available in the judgment or decision context. In 4 studies with experts (accountants and actuaries in Studies 1 and 2, respectively) and a diverse lay population (Studies 3 and 4), the evidence was consistent with the highly numerate being more likely than the less numerate to construct their preferences by rating a numerically inferior bet as superior (i.e., the bets effect). Thus, the effect generalizes beyond a college student sample, and preference construction differs by numeracy. Contrary to prior thinking about preference construction, however, high expertise and high ability (rather than low) consistently related to the paradoxical phenomenon. Results across studies including Study 3's experimental modifications of the task supported the hypothesized number comparison process (and not a lack of expertise with monetary outcomes and probabilities or numeracy‐related differences in attention to numbers) as the effect's underlying cause. The bets effect was not attenuated by Study 4's instructions to think about what would be purchased with bet winnings. Task results combined with free‐response coding supported the notion that highly numerate participants have a systematic and persistent inclination for doing simple and complex number operations that drive their judgments (even after controlling for nonnumeric intelligence). Implications for 3 types of dual‐process theories are discussed. The results were inconsistent with default‐interventionist theories, consistent or unclear with respect to fuzzy trace theory, and consistent with interactive theories.     

Interactions between the effects of food and water motivating operations on food‐ and water‐reinforced responding in mice

Two experiments examined interactions between the effects of food and water motivating operations (MOs) on the food‐ and water‐reinforced operant behavior of mice. In Experiment 1, mice responded for sucrose pellets and then water reinforcement under four different MOs: food deprivation, water deprivation, concurrent food and water deprivation, and no deprivation. The most responding for pellets occurred under food deprivation and the most responding for water occurred under water deprivation. Concurrent food and water deprivation decreased responding for both reinforcers. Nevertheless, water deprivation alone increased pellet‐reinforced responding and food deprivation alone likewise increased water‐reinforced responding relative to no deprivation. Experiment 2 demonstrated that presession food during concurrent food and water deprivation increased in‐session responding for water relative to sessions where no presession food was provided. Conversely, presession water during concurrent food and water deprivation did not increase in‐session responding for pellets. These results suggest that a) the reinforcing value of a single stimulus can be affected by multiple MOs, b) a single MO can affect the reinforcing value of multiple stimuli, and c) reinforcing events can also function as MOs. We consider implications for theory and practice and suggest strategies for further basic research on MOs.     

WHETHER SPIES TOO CAN BE SAVED

Spies, like soldiers, do a job and employ tactics that need justifying. I offer an argument for how Christian ethics may handle the moral problems of spying and do so by looking at the morally troubling tactics used by spies through the eyes of those who played an important role in shaping Christian theology and philosophy and have become normative in Christian moral thinking on the use of force. I argue that spying may be justifiable when we conceive the profession as a kind of use of force that is governed by the just war criteria. Spying is a particular kind of use of force that takes its moral character from those who authorize it, with what justification, to what ends, and with what methods. Particular attention is given to the tactics of disregarding the rules of war, the telling and living of lies, running covert operations, and assassinating military and political leaders.     

Choice preferences without inferences: subconscious priming of risk attitudes

We present a procedure for subconscious priming of risk attitudes. In Experiment 1, we were reliably able to induce risk‐seeking or risk‐averse preferences across a range of decision scenarios using this priming procedure. In Experiment 2, we showed that these priming effects can be reversed by drawing participants' attention to the priming event. Our results support claims that the formation of risk preferences can be based on preconscious processing, as for example postulated by the affective primacy hypothesis, rather than rely on deliberative mental operations, as posited by several current models of judgment and decision making. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

AN EVALUATION OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN QUALITY OF ATTENTION AND NEGATIVE REINFORCEMENT WITH CHILDREN WHO DISPLAY ESCAPE‐MAINTAINED PROBLEM BEHAVIOR

The choice‐making behavior of 2 typically developing children who engaged in problem behavior maintained by negative reinforcement was evaluated within a concurrent‐operants assessment that varied the quality of attention across free‐play and demand conditions. The results demonstrated that it was possible to bias responding towards academic demands for both participants by providing high‐quality attention, despite the continuous availability of negative reinforcement. The current study extended brief clinical methods with typically developing children and demonstrated how different qualities of attention provided across concurrent schedules could bias responding.     

Children’s multiplicative transformations of discrete and continuous quantities

Recent studies have documented an evolutionarily primitive, early emerging cognitive system for the mental representation of numerical quantity (the analog magnitude system). Studies with nonhuman primates, human infants, and preschoolers have shown this system to support computations of numerical ordering, addition, and subtraction involving whole number concepts prior to arithmetic training. Here we report evidence that this system supports children’s predictions about the outcomes of halving and perhaps also doubling transformations. A total of 138 kindergartners and first graders were asked to reason about the quantity resulting from the doubling or halving of an initial numerosity (of a set of dots) or an initial length (of a bar). Controls for dot size, total dot area, and dot density ensured that children were responding to the number of dots in the arrays. Prior to formal instruction in symbolic multiplication, division, or rational number, halving (and perhaps doubling) computations appear to be deployed over discrete and possibly continuous quantities. The ability to apply simple multiplicative transformations to analog magnitude representations of quantity may form a part of the toolkit that children use to construct later concepts of rational number.     

An evaluation of methylphenidate as a potential establishing operation for some common classroom reinforcers.

We conducted reinforcer assessments for 3 boys with a diagnosis of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder who alternately received either placebo or previously prescribed methylphenidate. Our purpose was to evaluate whether methylphenidate altered the relative reinforcing effectiveness of various stimuli that are often used in classroom-based behavioral treatment programs (e.g., activities, tangible items). Results showed clear differences for some stimuli between reinforcer assessments conducted when participants had received methylphenidate compared to placebo. Results suggest that methylphenidate might act as an establishing operation for some common classroom reinforcers. Implications for the development and evaluation of behavioral treatments are discussed.     

Nondirective prompting and noncontingent reinforcement in the treatment of destructive behavior during hygiene routines.

The escape-maintained destructive behavior of a girl with mental retardation persisted during hygiene routines with directive prompting, differential reinforcement for compliance, and extinction as treatment. Using nondirective prompting and noncontingent reinforcement, destructive behavior was reduced to near-zero levels during the hygiene routine.     

Combined antecedent variables as motivating operations within functional analyses

Functional analysis test conditions typically manipulate a single antecedent variable and an associated consequence to better isolate response-reinforcer relations. In some instances no problem behavior is observed, perhaps representing a false-negative finding. The present study evaluated one approach to assess potentially false-negative findings within functional analyses. Participants were exposed to single-antecedent functional analysis test conditions and combined-antecedent test conditions within a multielement design. Both participants engaged in problem behavior primarily during the combined-antecedent test conditions, and treatments matched to the results were effective in reducing problem behavior. Findings are discussed in terms of clinical implications of combining antecedent variables to further examine potentially false-negative functional analysis results.