贝叶斯结构方程模型及其研究现状

在心理学研究中结构方程模型(Structural Equation Modeling, SEM)被广泛用于检验潜变量间的因果效应, 其估计方法有频率学方法(如, 极大似然估计)和贝叶斯方法两类。近年来由于贝叶斯统计的流行及其在结构方程建模中易于处理小样本、缺失数据及复杂模型等方面的优势, 贝叶斯结构方程模型发展迅速, 但其在国内心理学领域的应用不足。主要介绍了贝叶斯结构方程模型的方法基础和优良特性, 及几类常用的贝叶斯结构方程模型及其应用现状, 旨在为应用研究者介绍新的研究工具。     

Examining Spirituality Over Time: Latent Growth Curve and Individual Growth Curve Analyses

SUMMARY

Research on spirituality and religiousness has gained growing attention in recent years; however, most studies have used cross-sectional designs. As research on this topic evolves, there has been increasing recognition of the need to examine these constructs and their effects through the use of longitudinal designs. Beyond repeated-measures ANOVA and OLS regression models, what tools are available to examine these constructs over time? The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of two cutting-edge statistical techniques that will facilitate longitudinal investigations of spirituality and religiousness: latent growth curve analysis using structural equation modeling (SEM) and individual growth curve models. The SEM growth curve approach examines change at the group level, with change over time expressed as a single latent growth factor. In contrast, individual growth curve models consider longitudinal change at the level of the person. While similar results may be obtained using either method, researchers may opt for one over the other due to the strengths and weaknesses associated with these methods. Examples of applications of both approaches to longitudinal studies of spirituality and religiousness are presented and discussed, along with design and data considerations when employing these modeling techniques.     

I’m lonely,can’t you tell? Convergent validity of self- and informant ratings of loneliness

To what degree do self-ratings of loneliness converge with informant ratings? In this study, we obtained self-ratings of loneliness from 463 young adults and informant ratings from their parents, friends, and romantic partners. Convergence among these ratings was estimated using structural equation models for multitrait-multimethod data and compared to self-informant convergence of life-satisfaction ratings. Self- and informant ratings were moderately correlated and comparable to self-informant correlations obtained for life satisfaction. Romantic partners were more accurate in their judgments than both friends and parents, who did not differ significantly from each other in terms of accuracy. Together, these findings indicate that informant ratings of loneliness can be used as valid indicators of loneliness in applied contexts and in future research.     

Contrasting single and multi-component working-memory systems in dual tasking

Working memory can be a major source of interference in dual tasking. However, there is no consensus on whether this interference is the result of a single working memory bottleneck, or of interactions between different working memory components that together form a complete working-memory system. We report a behavioral and an fMRI dataset in which working memory requirements are manipulated during multitasking. We show that a computational cognitive model that assumes a distributed version of working memory accounts for both behavioral and neuroimaging data better than a model that takes a more centralized approach. The model’s working memory consists of an attentional focus, declarative memory, and a subvocalized rehearsal mechanism. Thus, the data and model favor an account where working memory interference in dual tasking is the result of interactions between different resources that together form a working-memory system.     

NORMAL PEER MODELS AND AUTISTIC CHILDREN'S LEARNING

Present research and legislation regarding mainstreaming autistic children into normal classrooms have raised the importance of studying whether autistic children can benefit from observing normal peer models. The present investigation systematically assessed whether autistic children's learning of discrimination tasks could be improved if they observed normal children perform the tasks correctly. In the context of a multiple baseline design, four autistic children worked on five discrimination tasks that their teachers reported were posing difficulty. Throughout the baseline condition the children evidenced very low levels of correct responding on all five tasks. In the subsequent treatment condition, when normal peers modeled correct responses, the autistic children's correct responding increased dramatically. In each case, the peer modeling procedure produced rapid achievement of the acquisition criterion which was maintained after the peer models were removed. These results are discussed in relation to issues concerning observational learning and in relation to the implications for mainstreaming autistic children into normal classrooms.     

Multilevel covariance structure analysis of sibling substance use and intrafamily conflict

Conventional covariance structure analysis, such as factor analysis, is often applied to data that are obtained in a hierarchical fashion, such as siblings observed within families. A more appropriate specification is demonstrated which explicitly models the within-level and between-level covariance matrices of sibling substance use and intrafamily conflict. Participants were 267 target adolescents (mean age=13.11 years) and 318 siblings (mean age=15.03 years). The level of homogeneity within sibling clusters, and heterogeneity among families, was sufficient to conduct a multilevel covariance structure analysis (MCA). Parental and family-level variables consisting of marital status, socioeconomic status, marital discord, parent use, and modeling of substances were used to explain heterogeneity among families. Marital discord predicted intrafamily conflict, and parent marital status and modeling of substances predicted sibling substance use. Advantages and uses of hierarchical designs and conventional covariance structure software for multilevel data are discussed.     

A comparison of two approaches to education about carrier testing for cystic fibrosis

We tested the efficacy of two types of educational materials for genetic counseling: a traditional information brochure and one adding a role model story. Brochures were alternated weekly at a prenatal genetics center. Subjects were asked to read the brochure and fill out a questionnaire covering demographics and variables from the health belief model (impact, barriers, motivation, susceptibility, knowledge, severity). A group of 409 pregnant women and 251 male partners participated. Study design was quasiexperimental, using a post-test only comparison group. The brochure with modeling enhanced the perception of both risk and the severity of the disease and was inversely associated with the assessment of barriers, but did not directly impact on the decision to pursue testing; only 12% chose to be tested, with no significant differences between groups. While suggestive, the study is not confirmatory and should be repeated with a more heterogenous group of women.     

Fitting multivariage normal finite mixtures subject to structural equation modeling

This paper is about fitting multivariate normal mixture distributions subject to structural equation modeling. The general model comprises common factor and structural regression models. The introduction of covariance and mean structure models reduces the number of parameters to be estimated in fitting the mixture and enables one to investigate a variety of substantive hypotheses concerning the differences between the components in the mixture. Within the general model, individual parameters can be subjected to equality, nonlinear and simple bounds constraints. Confidence intervals are based on the inverse of the Hessian and on the likelihood profile. Several illustrations are given and results of a simulation study concerning the confidence intervals are reported.     

On structural models for analyzing change

The recommendation to base the analysis of multi-wave data upon explicit models for change is advocated. Several univariate and multivariate models are described, which emerge from an interaction between the classical test theory and the structural equation modeling approach. The resulting structural models for analyzing change reflect in some of their parameters substantively interesting aspects of intra- and interindividual change in follow-up studies. The models are viewed as an alternative to an ANOVA-based analysis of longitudinal data, and are illustrated on data from a cognitive intervention study of old adults (Bakes et al , 1986). The approach presents a useful means of analyzing change over time, and is applicable for purposes of (latent) growth curve analysis when analysis of variance assumptions are violated (e.g., Schaie & Hertzog, 1982; Morrison, 1976).     

Classical test theory based and factor analytic structural models for analyzing change: A note on differences and similarities

This note is concerned with differences and similarities between structural models for analyzing change, which are conceptualized within two different modelling traditions: the one based on the classical test theory, and that within the factor-analytic approach. It is shown that these two possibilities lead to models for studying change, which are indistinguishable when using for data analytic purposes structural modeling programs, such as LISREL, EQS, COSAN, LISCOMP, RAMONA, EzPATH, SAS PROC CALIS. The reason for this data-analytic equivalence of the two conceptually different types of models is the confounding of their differences in the corresponding implied covariance matrix structures.