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41.
Blair P. Lloyd Johanna L. Staubitz Jon T. Tapp 《Journal of applied behavior analysis》2018,51(3):738-753
To date, several data analysis methods have been used to estimate contingency strength, yet few studies have compared these methods directly. To compare the relative precision and sensitivity of four analysis methods (i.e., exhaustive event‐based, nonexhaustive event‐based, concurrent interval, concurrent+lag interval), we applied all methods to a simulated data set in which several response‐dependent and response‐independent schedules of reinforcement were programmed. We evaluated the degree to which contingency strength estimates produced from each method (a) corresponded with expected values for response‐dependent schedules and (b) showed sensitivity to parametric manipulations of response‐independent reinforcement. Results indicated both event‐based methods produced contingency strength estimates that aligned with expected values for response‐dependent schedules, but differed in sensitivity to response‐independent reinforcement. The precision of interval‐based methods varied by analysis method (concurrent vs. concurrent+lag) and schedule type (continuous vs. partial), and showed similar sensitivities to response‐independent reinforcement. Recommendations and considerations for measuring contingencies are identified. 相似文献
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Previous studies indicated that conditional predictions—the assessed probability that a certain outcome will occur given a certain condition—tend to be markedly inflated. Five experiments tested the effects of manipulations that were expected to alleviate this inflation by inducing participants to engage in analytic processing. Rewarding participants for accurate predictions proved ineffective. A training procedure in which participants assessed the likelihood of each of several outcomes before assessing the probability of a target outcome was partly effective in reducing overestimation. Most effective was the requirement to work in dyads and to come to an agreement about the assessed likelihood. Working in dyads helped alleviate prediction inflation even after participants made their individual predictions alone, and its debiasing effect also transferred to the estimates that were made individually on a new set of stimuli. The results were discussed in terms of the factors that make prediction inflation resistant to change. 相似文献
44.
S. Fiorini 《Journal of mathematical psychology》2004,48(1):80-82
Falmagne (J. Math. Psychol. 18 (1978) 52) proved the sufficiency of the Block-Marschak inequalities (in: I. Olkin, S. Ghurye, W. Hoefding, W. Madow, H. Mann (Eds.), Contributions to Probability and Statistics, Stanford University Press, Stanford, CA, 1960, pp. 97-132) and normalization equalities for a complete system of choice probabilities to be induced by rankings. Here, we give a considerably shorter proof of this result. Our approach combines Möbius inversion and network flows. 相似文献
45.
46.
The expert system shell MECore provides a series of knowledge management operations to define probabilistic knowledge bases and to reason under uncertainty. To provide a reference work for MECore algorithmics, we bring together results from different sources that have been applied in MECore and explain their intuitive ideas. Additionally, we report on our ongoing work regarding further development of MECore's algorithms to compute optimum entropy distributions and provide some empirical results. Altogether this paper explains the intuition of important theoretical results and their practical implications, compares old and new algorithmic approaches and points out their benefits as well as possible limitations and pitfalls. 相似文献
47.
Peter Baumann 《Synthese》2008,162(2):265-273
In Baumann (American Philosophical Quarterly 42: 71–79, 2005) I argued that reflections on a variation of the Monty Hall problem
throws a very general skeptical light on the idea of single-case probabilities. Levy (Synthese, forthcoming, 2007) puts forward
some interesting objections which I answer here. 相似文献
48.
I'll describe a range of systems for nonmonotonic conditionals that behave like conditional probabilities above a threshold. The rules that govern each system are probabilistically sound in that each rule holds when the conditionals are interpreted as conditional probabilities above a threshold level specific to that system. The well-known preferential and rational consequence relations turn out to be special cases in which the threshold level is 1. I'll describe systems that employ weaker rules appropriate to thresholds lower than 1, and compare them to these two standard systems. 相似文献
49.
Pieter Vijn 《Psychometrika》1983,48(3):437-449
This paper concerns ordinal responses. An ordered Dirichlet distribution describes prior and posterior beliefs about the cumulative probabilities of response categories. Associating the response categories with intervals of a latent random variable then induces a distribution on the order statistics of that variable. The psychometrician can use the asymptotic theory of order statistics to learn how distributional assumptions about the latent variable effect inference. An example relates the skewness of a latent variable to the proportional odds and proportional hazards models of McCullagh [1980]. 相似文献
50.
The manifest probabilities of observed examinee response patterns resulting from marginalization with respect to the latent ability distribution produce the marginal likelihood function in item response theory. Under the conditions that the posterior distribution of examinee ability given some test response pattern is normal and the item logit functions are linear, Holland (1990a) gives a quadratic form for the log-manifest probabilities by using the Dutch Identity. Further, Holland conjectures that this special quadratic form is a limiting one for all smooth unidimensional item response models as test length tends to infinity. The purpose of this paper is to give three counterexamples to demonstrate that Holland's Dutch Identity conjecture does not hold in general. The counterexamples suggest that only under strong assumptions can it be true that the limits of log-manifest probabilities are quadratic. Three propositions giving sets of such strong conditions are given. 相似文献