What if I am the one? Measuring individual differences in emotional sensitivity to probability and emotional reactivity to possibility

Current theories of risk perception point to the powerful role of emotion and the neglect of probabilistic information in the face of risk, but these tendencies differ across individuals. We propose a method for measuring individuals' emotional sensitivity to probability to assess how feelings about probabilities, rather than the probabilities themselves, influence decisions. Participants gave affective ratings (worry or excitement) to 14 risky events, each with a specified probability ranging from 1 in 10 to 1 in 10,000,000. For each participant, we regressed these emotional responses against item probabilities, estimating a slope (the degree to which emotional responses change with probability) and an intercept (the emotional reaction to an event with a fixed probability). These two parameters were treated as individual difference scores and included in models predicting reactions to several health risk scenarios. Both emotional sensitivity to probability (slope) and emotional reactivity to possibility (intercept) significantly predicted responses to these scenarios, above and beyond the predictive power of other well‐established individual difference measures.     

Objective and perceived risk in overtaking: The impact of driving context

The assistance and autonomous performance of overtaking manoeuvres can offer significant safety benefits. The impact of driving context on perceived risk emphasises the benefits of using contextual information to adjust the manoeuvring behaviour. This paper follows a mixed approach, addressing two main objectives: identifying factor combinations related to overtaking crashes (objective risk) and exploring their relationship to perceived risk. Factor combinations were extracted from a multi-year dataset, acquired from the UK in-depth study RAIDS (Road Accident In-depth Studies). Selected factors were used to create motorway overtaking scenarios with different manoeuvring behaviour (pull-out distance, manoeuvre duration, speed) and driving context (day/night, overtaking car/truck), while 237 participants assessed their impact on perceived risk through an online survey. The findings highlight the strong impact of manoeuvre characteristics on perceived risk, mediated or intensified by the driving context. Long pull-out distance and short manoeuvre duration time were preferred; under night conditions, short pull-out distances were perceived as riskier compared to daytime, while the opposite effect appeared for high speed, which was considered safer. The results can inform future research on motorway overtaking safety perception and acceptability, as well as the design of systems that assist or autonomously perform overtaking. Specifically, they can be used as guidelines for incorporating context related information to adjust overtaking behaviour according to user preferences and create a positive passenger experience.     

Multifactorial pathways facilitate resilience among kindergarteners at risk for dyslexia: A longitudinal behavioral and neuroimaging study

Recent efforts have focused on screening methods to identify children at risk for dyslexia as early as preschool/kindergarten. Unfortunately, while low sensitivity leads to under‐identification of at‐risk children, low specificity can lead to over‐identification, resulting in inaccurate allocation of limited educational resources. The present study focused on children identified as at‐risk in kindergarten who do not subsequently develop poor reading skills to specify factors associated with better reading outcomes among at‐risk children. Early screening was conducted in kindergarten and a subset of children was tracked longitudinally until second grade. Potential protective factors were evaluated at cognitive‐linguistic, environmental, and neural levels. Relative to at‐risk kindergarteners with subsequent poor reading, those with typical reading outcomes were characterized by significantly higher socioeconomic status (SES), speech production accuracy, and structural organization of the posterior right‐hemispheric superior longitudinal fasciculus (SLF). A positive association between structural organization of the right SLF and subsequent decoding skills was found to be specific to at‐risk children and not observed among typical controls. Among at‐risk children, several kindergarten‐age factors were found to significantly contribute to the prediction of subsequent decoding skills: white matter organization in the posterior right SLF, age, gender, SES, and phonological awareness. These findings suggest that putative compensatory mechanisms are already present by the start of kindergarten. The right SLF, in conjunction with the cognitive‐linguistic and socioeconomic factors identified, may play an important role in facilitating reading development among at‐risk children. This study has important implications for approaches to early screening, and assessment strategies for at‐risk children.     

Vécu des situations à risque d’erreur en réanimation : une étude qualitative auprès des médecins et infirmiers

Intensive care units are considered as services with a high risk of error. More and more studies have measured the incidence and impact of errors in intensive care units, but few of them are centered on the impact of the risk of error for professionals. This study focuses on the perception of the risk of error, how it is experienced, and the way in which professionals cope with it. Forty professionals (20 physicians, 20 nurses) participated in clinical interviews. We transcribed recordings and analysed the data using a phenomenological approach. The risk of error is omnipresent in intensive care units. For nurses with less than one years experience, the risk of error is associated with important manifestations of anxiety. On the contrary, for doctors and nurses who have worked for more than one year in ICU, their experience and the relationship of cooperation built with colleagues gives them a feeling of control over risky situations. Our results show that it is important to take into account the risk of error in order to better target the support and training for the ICU professionals.     

Longitudinal pathways between mental health difficulties and academic performance during middle childhood and early adolescence

There is a growing appreciation that child functioning in different domains, levels, or systems are interrelated over time. Here, we investigate links between internalizing symptoms, externalizing problems, and academic attainment during middle childhood and early adolescence, drawing on two large data sets (child: mean age 8.7 at enrolment, n = 5,878; adolescent: mean age 11.7, n = 6,388). Using a 2‐year cross‐lag design, we test three hypotheses – adjustment erosion, academic incompetence, and shared risk – while also examining the moderating influence of gender. Multilevel structural equation models provided consistent evidence of the deleterious effect of externalizing problems on later academic achievement in both cohorts, supporting the adjustment‐erosion hypothesis. Evidence supporting the academic‐incompetence hypothesis was restricted to the middle childhood cohort, revealing links between early academic failure and later internalizing symptoms. In both cohorts, inclusion of shared‐risk variables improved model fit and rendered some previously established cross‐lag pathways non‐significant. Implications of these findings are discussed, and study strengths and limitations noted.

Statement of contribution

What is already known on this subject?

• Longitudinal research and in particular developmental cascades literature make the case for weaker associations between internalizing symptoms and academic performance than between externalizing problems and academic performance.
• Findings vary in terms of the magnitude and inferred direction of effects. Inconsistencies may be explained by different age ranges, prevalence of small‐to‐modest sample sizes, and large time lags between measurement points.
• Gender differences remain underexamined.

What does this study add?

• The present study used cross‐lagged models to examine longitudinal associations in age groups (middle child and adolescence) in a large‐scale British sample.
• The large sample size not only allows for improvements on previous measurement models (e.g., allowing the analysis to account for nesting, and estimation of latent variables) but also allows for examination of gender differences.
• The findings clarify the role of shared‐risk factors in accounting for associations between internalizing, externalizing, and academic performance, by demonstrating that shared‐risk factors do not fully account for relationships between internalizing, externalizing, and academic achievement. Specifically, some pathways between mental health and academic attainment consistently remain, even after shared‐risk variables have been accounted for.
• Findings also present consistent support for the potential impact of behavioural problems on children's academic attainment.
• The negative relationship between low academic attainment and subsequent internalizing symptoms for younger children is also noteworthy.

     

Associations between narrative transportation,risk perception and behaviour intentions following narrative messages about skin cancer

Objective: Narrative messages may be an effective strategy to increase risk perceptions and motivate preventive behaviours related to cancer. The aim of this research was to examine associations between narrative transportation (i.e. psychological absorption into a narrative), risk perceptions, and intentions following narrative messages about skin cancer.

Design: In two studies, women who reported indoor tanning read first-person narrative messages about skin cancer. We examined associations between narrative transportation and the women’s responses to the narratives, including risk perceptions for skin cancer and behaviour intentions to reduce risk. Associations between transportation, knowledge and worry were also examined.

Results: Greater transportation was associated with higher intentions to perform skin self-examination, talk to one’s doctor about skin cancer, and look for more information. Greater transportation was also associated with higher gut feelings of risk and higher worry about skin cancer, but not deliberative risk perceptions or knowledge from the message. Additional analyses showed that after controlling for risk perception and worry, transportation had unique associations with some behaviour intentions.

Conclusion: Findings suggest that narrative transportation may be an important component to the persuasion of cancer narratives. Future research should explore ideas such as the role of the experiential system in narratives’ influence.     

Understanding ‘Unlikely (20% Likelihood)’ or ‘20% Likelihood (Unlikely)’ Outcomes: The Robustness of the Extremity Effect

Calls to communicate uncertainty using mixed, verbal‐numerical formats (‘unlikely [0–33%]’) have stemmed from research comparing mixed with solely verbal communications. Research using the new ‘which outcome’ approach to investigate understanding of verbal probability expressions suggests, however, that mixed formats might convey disadvantages compared with purely numerical communications. When asked to indicate an outcome that is ‘unlikely’, participants have been shown to often indicate outcomes with a value exceeding the maximum value shown, equivalent to a 0% probability —an ‘extremity effect’. Recognising the potential consequences of communication recipients expecting an ‘unlikely’ event to never occur, we extend the ‘which outcome’ work across four experiments, using verbal, numerical, and verbal‐numerical communication formats, as well as a previously unconsidered numerical‐verbal format. We examine how robust the effect is in the context of consequential outcomes and over non‐normal distributions. We also investigate whether participants are aware of the inconsistency in their responses from a traditional ‘how likely’ and ‘which outcome’ task. We replicate and extend previous findings, with preference for extreme outcomes (including above maximum values) observed in both verbal and verbal‐numerical formats. Our results suggest caution in blanket usage of recently recommended verbal‐numerical formats for the communication of uncertainty. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Is Risk Taking a Missing Ingredient in Pastoral Ministry?

This article describes the use of risk taking behaviors to accomplish objectives that, in certain circumstances, the more traditionally accepted practices of pastoral care and counselling, seem unable to achieve alone.     

Social-Cognitive Factors in Changing Health-Related Behaviors

Changing health-related behaviors requires two separate processes that involve motivation and volition, respectively. First, an intention to change is developed, in part on the basis of self-beliefs. Second, the change must be planned, initiated, and maintained, and relapses must be managed; self-regulation plays a critical role in these processes. Social-cognition models of health behavior change address these two processes. One such model, the health action process approach, is explicitly based on the assumption that two distinct phases need to be studied longitudinally, one phase that leads to a behavioral intention and another that leads to the actual behavior. Particular social-cognitive variables may play different roles in the two stages; perceived self-efficacy is the only predictor that seems to be equally important in the two phases.