判断与决策研究纵观:基于模糊痕迹理论的视角(英文)

模糊痕迹理论是用于解释记忆、判断与决策的综合性理论,该理论的提出和发展主要基于对信息存储、表征、提取和加工过程的研究。本文首先介绍了模糊痕迹理论的基本原则,在此基础上重点讨论了其要义(gist)如何发挥核心作用,使得模糊痕迹理论有别于其他传统的决策模型。该理论将高级直觉与原始冲动性进行了区分,并且预测决策误差来源于判断与决策的各种不同成分,如背景知识、信息表征、提取和加工过程等。模糊痕迹理论不仅可以解释诸如框架效应、合取谬误等传统决策与判断文献中常讨论的误差现象,同时基于该理论的研究还得到了一些与传统决策理论相悖的新发现。此外,对脑与行为如何发育性变化的研究为我们了解成人的认知过程提供了至关重要的新视角,这些对脑与行为的发育性研究和对特殊人群的研究结果也都支持了模糊痕迹理论对要义加工依赖的预测。     

Préservation d’une image positive de soi dans un cadre de vie « à risque »

According to social identity theory (Tajfel, 1972), individual try to maintain a positive self-image. Places at which he/she is attached contribute to identity building (Proshansky et al., 1983; Twigger-Ross & Uzzell, 1996). Therefore, individual will try to maintain a positive a positive and stable image of such places. Our study is interested in what is the representation of their living area for individuals living in coastal area considered as exposed to erosion/flood risk, and attached to it. We are focused on how this representation influences their perception to coastal risk. We assume that individual attached to a place which he/she consider as “at risk” will put in place a strategy to preserve the positive image of this place and of himself/herself. Analyzing answers to a questionnaire, results demonstrate that individuals considering a place which they are attached as “at risk” mitigate the danger impact on that space. Thus, they conciliate probability of such negative event on place which they identifying themselves with positive image of this place and, by extension, of themselves.     

Bullies,blades, and barricades: Practical considerations for working with adolescents expressing concerns regarding gender and identity

ABSTRACT

Background: Adolescents, by their very nature and need for maturity, struggle with issues of the self and identity, while challenging the very systems that are there to support them. However, gender diverse adolescents may become detached and overwhelmed as a trans identity solidifies during this time. Bullies, blades and barricades describes the challenges, hardship and dispossession that some gender diverse adolescents face from interpersonal and intrapersonal conflicts, societal pressure and hostility.

Method: This paper utilizes the current research on safety and risks affecting trans youth, the authors clinical experience of trans and gender diverse adolescents, and recommendations in the literature for professional care and support of gender diverse adolescents to identify the various ways gender diverse adolescents are negatively affected by their experiences.

Results: Bullying is not limited to school or peer environments and may be present in adolescents' homes, in local communities, in professional services or from sources of information such as the media. The physical dangers gender diverse adolescents face may arise from victimization, violence or rejection, or self-harming behaviors due to negative beliefs, fear or frustration. Barriers preventing disclosure and expression of gender and/or identity may stem from negative experiences, rejection, pubertal changes, imposed limitations, dependence upon school, home or legal environments, or other spheres of influence.

Discussion: Affirmative approaches, individual focus, recognition of family dynamics, inclusion of significant others, advocacy in school and local community environments as well as professional training are the most commonly recommended interventions. This paper provides an inclusive review of the myriad of challenges confronting gender diverse adolescents including often unrecognized forms of pressure, oppression and restrictions. This paper aims to support clinicians by contextualizing the adversity that gender diverse adolescents face and offers strategies for engagement and intervention.     

Cognitive development in children of adolescent mothers: The impact of socioeconomic risk and maternal sensitivity

BackgroundAdolescent motherhood is accompanied by a constellation of risk factors that translate into developmental risk for the off-spring. Socioeconomic risk that is associated with adolescent motherhood as well as maternal interactive behaviors may contribute to the impact of adolescent motherhood on children’s developmental outcome.ObjectiveTherefore, the aim of the current study was to investigate differences in children’s cognitive development between children of adolescent and adult mothers in their first two years of life and to examine whether socioeconomic risk (e.g. such as educational and financial problems) and/or maternal sensitivity mediate developmental differences between children of adolescent and adult mothers.MethodsAdolescent mothers (<21 years; N = 64) and adult mothers (>25 years; N = 34) and their infants were included in the current study. Child cognitive development and maternal sensitivity were assessed at three different time points (T1: mean child age 5.26 months; T2: mean child age 14.69 months; T3: mean child age 21.16 months).ResultsChildren of adult mothers showed better cognitive performance at T3 compared to children of adolescent mothers but not at T1 and T2. A multiple mediation model including socioeconomic risk and maternal sensitivity as serial mediators demonstrated that the effect of adolescent motherhood on cognitive development was mediated in a causal effect chain with socioeconomic risk negatively affecting maternal sensitivity and maternal sensitivity affecting children’s cognitive development.DiscussionThe present findings demonstrate that maternal interactive behaviors are not only a simple predictor of cognitive development but may also act as a mediator of the association between more distal variables such as socioeconomic risk and cognitive development in adolescent mothers. This supports the need to promote prevention and intervention programs for adolescent mothers during the early postpartum period to reduce socioeconomic problems and enhance maternal interactive behaviors.     

Attachment styles and clinical correlates in people at ultra high risk for psychosis

Evidence suggests that attachment styles may influence subclinical psychosis phenotypes (schizotypy) and affective disorders and may play a part in the association between psychosis and childhood adversity. However, the role of attachment in the initial stages of psychosis remains poorly understood. Our main aim was to describe and compare attachment styles in 60 individuals at ultra high risk for psychosis (UHR) and a matched sample of 60 healthy volunteers (HV). The HV had lower anxious and avoidant attachment scores than the UHR individuals (p < .001). Sixty-nine percentage of the UHR group had more than one DSM-IV diagnosis, mainly affective and anxiety disorders. The UHR group experienced more trauma (p < .001) and more mood and anxiety symptoms (p < .001). Interestingly, in our UHR group, only schizotypy paranoia was correlated with insecure attachment. In the HV group, depression, anxiety, schizotypy paranoia, and social anxiety were correlated with insecure attachment. This difference and some discrepancies with previous studies involving UHR suggest that individuals at UHR may compose a heterogeneous group; some experience significant mood and/or anxiety symptoms that may not be explained by specific attachment styles. Nonetheless, measuring attachment in UHR individuals could help maximize therapeutic relationships to enhance recovery.     

Salience Versus Proportional Reasoning: Rethinking the Mechanism Behind Graphical Display Effects

Two experiments examined predictions from two separate explanations for previously observed display effects for communicating low‐probability risks: foreground:background salience and proportional reasoning. According to foreground:background salience, people's risk perceptions are based on the relative salience of the foreground (number of people harmed) versus the background (number of people at risk), such that calling attention to the background makes the risk seem smaller. Conversely, the proportional reasoning explanation states that what matters is whether the respondent attends to the proportion, which conveys how small the risk is. In Experiment 1, we made the background more salient via color and bolding; in contrast to the foreground:background salience prediction, this manipulation did not influence participants' risk aversion. In Experiment 2, we separately manipulated whether the foreground and the background were displayed graphically or numerically. In keeping with the proportional reasoning hypothesis, there was an interaction whereby participants given formats that displayed the foreground and background in the same modality (graphs or numbers, thereby making the proportion easier to form) saw the probability as smaller and were less risk averse than participants given the information in different modalities. There was also a main effect of displaying the background graphically, providing some support for foreground:background salience. In total, this work suggests that the proportional reasoning account provides a good explanation of many display effects related to communicating low‐probability risks, although there is some role for foreground:background salience as well. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Are Decisions Made by Group Representatives More Risk Averse? The Effect of Sense of Responsibility

We tested the hypothesis that a sense of responsibility drives group representatives' decisions to be more risk averse compared with decisions made by individuals. The hypothesis was supported when the monetary considerations (i.e., payoff inequality and the magnitude effect) were controlled for in the potential gain domain as well as in the potential loss domain. Evidence showed that this is because the group representatives were concerned about how they would view themselves (e.g., guilt and self‐blame) and also how they would be viewed by others (i.e., to avoid being blamed and looked down upon by others). This study provided new insights into understanding group representatives' decision making under risk. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparing What to What,on What Scale? The Impact of Item Comparisons and Reference Points in Communicating Risk and Uncertainty

The mandated public availability of individual hospital's audit data for children's heart surgery in the UK creates a challenging scenario for communicating these complex and sensitive data to diverse audiences. On the basis of this scenario, we conducted three experiments with the aim of understanding how best to help lay people understand these data and the practical goal of improving the public presentation of these data. The experiments compared different outcome measures for displaying the survival rate (percentage scale versus the ratio of the predicted/observed rates) and presentation formats (individual hospital versus all hospitals shown) for outcomes data presented relative to prediction intervals generated by a risk model that adjusts for case mix. Our data highlight how easily inappropriate comparisons can influence evaluations of complex data: for instance, both a survival ratio of 1 and the presence of other hospitals seemingly provided reference points that resulted in inappropriately harsh evaluations of some hospitals. By drawing on evaluability theory, we demonstrate how to enhance people's understanding of these complex data while also discouraging inappropriate comparisons, which has implications for communicating risk and uncertainty and for choice architecture design in a range of contexts. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Emotional processes in risky and multiattribute health decisions

Objective: Here, we develop an integrative account of the roles of emotion in decision-making. In Part I, we illustrate how emotional inputs into decisions may rely on physiological signals from emotions experienced while making the decision, and we review evidence suggesting that the failure to represent the emotional meaning of options can often reduce decision quality. We propose that health-related decrements in the ability to generate emotional reactions lead people to inaccurately represent emotional responses and compromise decisions, particularly about risk. Part II explores complex decisions in which choice options involve trade-offs between positive and negative attributes. We first review evidence showing that difficult trade-off decisions generate negative affect and physiological arousal. Next, we propose that medical decision-making will be linked to short- and long-term stress and health outcomes.

Conclusion: In sum, this article proposes and reviews initial evidence supporting the effective use and management of emotional inputs as important to both clinical and non-clinical populations. Our approach will contribute to the understanding of patient-centred emotional decision-making and will inform medical decision aids.     

Modeling effects of risk and social distance on vaccination choice

Despite vaccines' consistently demonstrated effectiveness, vaccination rates remain suboptimal due to vaccine refusal. Low vaccination rates are particularly problematic for individuals who cannot be vaccinated for medical reasons and thus must rely on herd immunity (i.e., protection of vulnerable individuals due to the high rate of vaccination of other—often socially distant—individuals). The current study uses a novel decision‐making task to examine how three variables impacted participants' highest acceptable probability of side effects to their children: 1) the severity of the side effects their children experience, 2) the social distance to the beneficiary of the vaccination, and 3) the probability that the vaccine will prevent disease for that designated beneficiary. Participants' willingness to risk potential side effects of vaccination systematically decreased as the 1) effectiveness of the vaccination decreased, 2) the beneficiary of the vaccination became more socially distant, and 3) the severity of side effects increased. These data were well‐described by behavioral economic models used to examine the discounting of other health behavior.