Motivated Reasoning in an Explore-Exploit Task

The current research investigates how prior preferences affect causal learning. Participants were tasked with repeatedly choosing policies (e.g., increase vs. decrease border security funding) in order to maximize the economic output of an imaginary country and inferred the influence of the policies on the economy. The task was challenging and ambiguous, allowing participants to interpret the relations between the policies and the economy in multiple ways. In three studies, we found evidence of motivated reasoning despite financial incentives for accuracy. For example, participants who believed that border security funding should be increased were more likely to conclude that increasing border security funding actually caused a better economy in the task. In Study 2, we hypothesized that having neutral preferences (e.g., preferring neither increased nor decreased spending on border security) would lead to more accurate assessments overall, compared to having a strong initial preference; however, we did not find evidence for such an effect. In Study 3, we tested whether providing participants with possible functional forms of the policies (e.g., the policy takes some time to work or initially has a negative influence but eventually a positive influence) would lead to a smaller influence of motivated reasoning but found little evidence for this effect. This research advances the field of causal learning by studying the role of prior preferences, and in doing so, integrates the fields of causal learning and motivated reasoning using a novel explore-exploit task.     

Children's Ideas About What Can Really Happen: The Impact of Age and Religious Background

Five- to 11-year-old U.S. children, from either a religious or secular background, judged whether story events could really happen. There were four different types of stories: magical stories violating ordinary causal regularities; religious stories also violating ordinary causal regularities but via a divine agent; unusual stories not violating ordinary causal regularities but with an improbable event; and realistic stories not violating ordinary causal regularities and with no improbable event. Overall, children were less likely to judge that religious and magical stories could really happen than unusual and realistic stories although religious children were more likely than secular children to judge that religious stories could really happen. Irrespective of background, children frequently invoked causal regularities in justifying their judgments. Thus, in justifying their conclusion that a story could really happen, children often invoked a causal regularity, whereas in justifying their conclusion that a story could not really happen, they often pointed to the violation of causal regularity. Overall, the findings show that children appraise the likelihood of story events actually happening in light of their beliefs about causal regularities. A religious upbringing does not impact the frequency with which children invoke causal regularities in judging what can happen, even if it does impact the type of causal factors that children endorse.     

Identifying Causal Estimands for Time-Varying Treatments Measured with Time-Varying (Age or Grade-Based) Instruments

This commentary discusses causal estimands of same-age and same-grade comparisons for assessing grade-retention effects on student ability and performance. Using potential outcomes notation, we show that same-age and same-grade comparisons refer to different retention–promotion contrasts and therefore assess different causal questions. We also comment on deleting versus censoring records of students who dropped out of the study or do not belong to the treatment regimes under investigation. Whereas deleting entire student records potentially induces collider bias, censoring circumvents bias if censoring is ignorable given the observed pretreatment covariates.     

A Bayesian Theory of Sequential Causal Learning and Abstract Transfer

Two key research issues in the field of causal learning are how people acquire causal knowledge when observing data that are presented sequentially, and the level of abstraction at which learning takes place. Does sequential causal learning solely involve the acquisition of specific cause‐effect links, or do learners also acquire knowledge about abstract causal constraints? Recent empirical studies have revealed that experience with one set of causal cues can dramatically alter subsequent learning and performance with entirely different cues, suggesting that learning involves abstract transfer, and such transfer effects involve sequential presentation of distinct sets of causal cues. It has been demonstrated that pre‐training (or even post‐training) can modulate classic causal learning phenomena such as forward and backward blocking. To account for these effects, we propose a Bayesian theory of sequential causal learning. The theory assumes that humans are able to consider and use several alternative causal generative models, each instantiating a different causal integration rule. Model selection is used to decide which integration rule to use in a given learning environment in order to infer causal knowledge from sequential data. Detailed computer simulations demonstrate that humans rely on the abstract characteristics of outcome variables (e.g., binary vs. continuous) to select a causal integration rule, which in turn alters causal learning in a variety of blocking and overshadowing paradigms. When the nature of the outcome variable is ambiguous, humans select the model that yields the best fit with the recent environment, and then apply it to subsequent learning tasks. Based on sequential patterns of cue‐outcome co‐occurrence, the theory can account for a range of phenomena in sequential causal learning, including various blocking effects, primacy effects in some experimental conditions, and apparently abstract transfer of causal knowledge.     

The Invisible Hand: Toddlers Connect Probabilistic Events With Agentive Causes

Children posit unobserved causes when events appear to occur spontaneously (e.g., Gelman & Gottfried, 1996). What about when events appear to occur probabilistically? Here toddlers (M = 20.1 months) saw arbitrary causal relationships (Cause A generated Effect A; Cause B generated Effect B) in a fixed, alternating order. The relationships were then changed in one of two ways. In the Deterministic condition, the event order changed (Event B preceded Event A); in the Probabilistic condition, the causal relationships changed (Cause A generated Effect B; Cause B generated Effect A). As intended, toddlers looked equally long at both changes (Experiment 1). We then introduced a previously unseen candidate cause. Toddlers looked longer at the appearance of a hand (Experiment 2) and novel agent (Experiment 3) in the Deterministic than the Probabilistic conditions, but looked equally long at novel non‐agents (Experiment 4), suggesting that by 2 years of age, toddlers connect probabilistic events with unobserved agents.     

The Experience of Minorities Under Pakistan's Blasphemy Laws

Human rights activists repeatedly assert that the blasphemy laws of Pakistan are discriminatory and violate human rights guaranteed by both the Constitution of Pakistan and international treaties. However, supporters of the blasphemy laws vehemently disagree with this view. They argue that Pakistan's blasphemy laws are not discriminatory and apply equally to all citizens of Pakistan. In support of this, they offer the evidence that the majority of those accused of blasphemy belong to the Muslim community. This article examines this argument in the light of the experience of minorities living under Pakistan's blasphemy laws. While the blasphemy laws have undoubtedly affected all the minority groups in Pakistan to a greater or lesser extent, this article will focus on Christians and Ahmadis as these are the two minorities most affected by the blasphemy laws.     

Self–Other Relations in Biodiversity Conservation in the Community: Representational Processes and Adjustment to New Actions

This research explores the simultaneous role of two Self–Other relations in the elaboration of representations at the micro‐ and ontogenetic levels, assuming that it can result in acceptance and/or resistance to new laws. Drawing on the Theory of Social Representations, it concretely looks at how individuals elaborate new representations relevant for biodiversity conservation in the context of their relations with their local community (an interactional Other) and with the legal/reified sphere (an institutional Other). This is explored in two studies in Portuguese Natura 2000 sites where a conservation project calls residents to protect an at‐risk species. Study 1 shows that (i) agreement with the institutional Other (the laws) and meta‐representations of the interactional Other (the community) as approving of conservation independently help explain (at the ontogenetic level) internalisation of conservation goals and willingness to act; (ii) the same meta‐representations operating at the micro‐genetic level attenuate the negative relation between ambivalence and willingness to act. Study 2 shows that a meta‐representation of the interactional Other as showing no clear position regarding conservation increases ambivalence. Findings demonstrate the necessarily social nature of representational processes and the importance of considering them at more than one level for understanding responses to new policy/legal proposals. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Le droit à la protection de la santé dans la jurisprudence du Conseil constitutionnel

The establishment of constitutional review a posteriori did not fundamentally inflected jurisprudence of the Constitutional Council in the field of health protection. Decisions rendered in QPC material confirms that if the judge agrees to give priority to public health in the exercise of his office, he still refuses to recognize the subjective dimension of the right to individual health.     

汉字阅读的语义神经回路及其与语音回路的协作机制

从神经网络的角度研究词汇阅读的大脑神经机制, 需要揭示语义和语音神经回路的动态协作机制, 而语义加工神经回路是探讨该问题的一个亟待解决的瓶颈问题。利用汉字表义的独特性, 以形旁语义作用的神经机制为切入点, 计划开展的4个fMRI实验拟探讨汉字阅读的语义神经回路及其与语音回路的动态协作机制。实验1利用多参数相关分析技术, 识别与汉字语义和语音属性相关的功能脑区; 实验2和实验3集中考察形旁语义加工的大脑神经机制, 深入探讨形旁语义作用的实质, 揭示汉字阅读中语义加工的神经回路; 实验4通过建构汉字阅读的动态因果模型, 考察在刺激驱动和任务调节下, 阅读相关脑区联结模式的动态变化, 阐明语义和语音神经回路的相互协作机制。研究结果将从跨语言的角度, 阐明阅读神经网络的内部动态机制, 为联结主义理论提供神经生理方面的直接证据; 并为基于脑科学的教育教学和阅读障碍矫治等实践应用提供理论依据。     

The Logical Structure of Classical Genetics

We present a reconstruction of so-called classical, formal or Mendelian genetics using a notation which we believe is more legible than that of earlier accounts, and lends itself easily to computer implementation, for instance in PROLOG. By drawing from, and emending, earlier work of Balzer and Dawe (1986,1997), the present account presents the three most important lines of development of classical genetics: the so-called Mendel's laws, linkage genetics and gene mapping, in the form of a theory-net. This shows that the set theoretic representation format used in the structuralist approach to the philosophy of science also applies to the domain of genetic theories. There construction is intended to lend more clarity to theme thodological, philosophical and didactical discussions of the foundations of genetics, and on the other hand to defend a formally, logically minded view of theories which seems to have become contested through the work of Feyerabend, Kuhn and Kitcher. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.