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91.
Probabilistic models of expected information gain require integrating prior knowledge about causal hypotheses with knowledge about possible actions that might generate data relevant to those hypotheses. Here we looked at whether preschoolers (mean: 54 months) recognize “action possibilities” (affordances) in the environment that allow them to isolate variables when there is information to be gained. By manipulating the physical properties of the stimuli, we were able to affect the degree to which candidate variables could be isolated; by manipulating the base rate of candidate causes, we were able to affect the potential for information gain. Children’s exploratory play was sensitive to both manipulations: given unambiguous evidence children played indiscriminately and rarely tried to isolate candidate causes; given ambiguous evidence, children both selected (Experiment 1) and designed (Experiment 2) informative interventions. 相似文献
92.
We used a new method to assess how people can infer unobserved causal structure from patterns of observed events. Participants were taught to draw causal graphs, and then shown a pattern of associations and interventions on a novel causal system. Given minimal training and no feedback, participants in Experiment 1 used causal graph notation to spontaneously draw structures containing one observed cause, one unobserved common cause, and two unobserved independent causes, depending on the pattern of associations and interventions they saw. We replicated these findings with less-informative training (Experiments 2 and 3) and a new apparatus (Experiment 3) to show that the pattern of data leads to hidden causal inferences across a range of prior constraints on causal knowledge. 相似文献
93.
Frederick Eberhardt 《Synthese》2008,163(3):433-442
We consider the problems arising from using sequences of experiments to discover the causal structure among a set of variables,
none of whom are known ahead of time to be an “outcome”. In particular, we present various approaches to resolve conflicts
in the experimental results arising from sampling variability in the experiments. We provide a sufficient condition that allows
for pooling of data from experiments with different joint distributions over the variables. Satisfaction of the condition
allows for an independence test with greater sample size that may resolve some of the conflicts in the experimental results.
The pooling condition has its own problems, but should—due to its generality—be informative to techniques for meta-analysis. 相似文献
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Aaron L. Wichman Ryan P. Brunner Gifford Weary 《Journal of experimental social psychology》2008,44(4):1106-1113
Previous research has focused on enhanced processing as a response to causal uncertainty (CU), but relatively little empirical attention has been given to how CU is activated and the temporal unfolding of this activation. The current research investigates the counterintuitive idea that people inhibit causal uncertainty immediately after its activation. We find that this inhibition weakens over time. Study 1 demonstrates this inhibition effect with self-report uncertainty. Study 2 demonstrates this effect with an implicit accessibility measure. Temporary inhibition of uncertainty may be a general response when uncertainty is activated. 相似文献
97.
This article provides the first demonstration of a reliable second-order conditioning (SOC) effect in human causal learning tasks. It demonstrates the human ability to infer relationships between a cause and an effect that were never paired together during training. Experiments 1a and 1b showed a clear and reliable SOC effect, while Experiments 2a and 2b demonstrated that first-order extinction did not affect SOC. These results were similar to those found in animal and human conditioning and suggested that a similar associative mechanism could explain these effects. However, they can also be used to look into the underlying causal mental model people build and store while they are learning this task. From a cognitive view, overall results suggest that an independent rather than a chain causal mental model is stored after second-order learning in human causal tasks. 相似文献
98.
探讨回指距离、干扰词的精细描述、干扰词的典型性 对回指推理(先行词通达)的影响。包括2个实验,被试是华南师范大学一二年级本科生164名。采用移动窗口技术,要求被试阅读一定篇数(如,实验1a每个被试阅读15篇)的文章,对不同条件的探测词的反应时进行统计。实验1探讨干扰词精细描述类型(精细描述高和精细描述低)对回指推理的影响。结果表明,干扰的精细描述并非是影响回指推理的主要因素。实验2探讨干扰词和先行词的典型性类型的相对变化对回指推理的影响。结果表明高典型干扰在不同回指距离条件下都会对回指推理产生影响。本研究结果初步证明在影响回指推理的干扰典型性和干扰精细描述的二个因素中,起主要作用的是干扰的典型性 相似文献
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100.
Conditionals in natural language are central to reasoning and decision making. A theoretical proposal called the Ramsey test implies the conditional probability hypothesis: that the subjective probability of a natural language conditional, P(if p then q), is the conditional subjective probability, P(q/p). We report three experiments on causal indicative conditionals and related counterfactuals that support this hypothesis. We measured the probabilities people assigned to truth table cases, P(pq), P(p notq), P( notpq) and P( notp notq). From these ratings, we computed three independent predictors, P(p), P(q/p) and P(q/ notp), that we then entered into a regression equation with judged P(if p then q) as the dependent variable. In line with the conditional probability hypothesis, P(q/p) was by far the strongest predictor in our experiments. This result is inconsistent with the claim that causal conditionals are the material conditionals of elementary logic. Instead, it supports the Ramsey test hypothesis, implying that common processes underlie the use of conditionals in reasoning and judgments of conditional probability in decision making. 相似文献