判断与决策中的基线比例忽略

基线比例忽略是指在事件的判断中忽略相关事件统计学上的信息, 而只关注当前呈现的案例信息, 从而造成判断和决策偏差的一种现象。目前对这一现象的解释主要包括双加工理论和线性整合理论, 而影响基线比例忽略的因素有许多方面, 如信息特征、认知能力等等。在未来研究中, 应该深入分析双加工理论的作用机制以及依据模糊痕迹理论提出新的研究视角, 同时拓展在团体和公共领域中的应用性研究。     

四卡问题的视角效应发生机制：领域一般性还是领域特殊性？

视角效应（Perspective Effects)是指四卡问题解决中,当被试从不同的角度对条件规则进行检验时,其选择偏向会在卡片p,q和-p,q之间发生稳定变化的现象。视角效应对四卡问题的解决有重要影响,但其存在条件及发生机制仍存在争议。本研究通过3个实验,探讨四卡问题中的视角效应。实验1和实验2采用混合实验设计,结果表明,转换社会契约、因果规则的四卡问题中,发现视角效应,抽象规则中,提供反例比提供充分必要条件更有利于产生视角效应。实验3在不同视角下研究四卡问题与条件推理的关系。结果表明,四卡问题与条件推理之间不具有逻辑一致性,产生分离现象。总之,视角效应在抽象规则和特定规则中均存在,而提供反例更有利于视角效应的产生。领域一般性或领域特殊性均不能有效解释视角效应的产生,两种机制的综合调节为解释视角效应提供新的角度。     

推理方向与规则维度对儿童因果推理的影响

采用Frye和Zelazo等（1996）所设计的“二进二出”装置（斜面滚球装置）,设置了不同的推理方向、规则维度的因果推理任务,采用个别实验法,研究了60名3.5～4.5岁儿童因果推理能力的发展。结果发现：（1）儿童在不同方向的因果推理任务上成绩差异显著,因→果推理成绩要好于果→因推理;（2）不同维度下儿童的推理成绩有极显著的差异性,一维的因果推理更容易,三维合取规则的因果推理任务更难;（3）3.5～4岁左右是儿童因果推理能力发展的快速期。     

Rejecting the Urge to Theorise in Fallacy Inquiry

In this paper, I examine the incessant call to theory that is evident in fallacy inquiry. I relate the motivations for this call to a desire to attain for fallacy inquiry certain attributes of the theoretical process in scientific inquiry. I argue that these same attributes, when pursued in the context of philosophical inquiry in general and fallacy inquiry in particular, lead to the assumption of a metaphysical standpoint. This standpoint, I contend, is generative of unintelligibility in philosophical discussions of rationality. I claim that this same unintelligibility can be shown to characterise fallacy inquiry, an example of the study of argumentative rationality. The context for my claim is an examination of the theoretical pronouncements of two prominent fallacy theorists, John Woods and Douglas Walton, in relation to the argument from ignorance fallacy. My conclusion takes the form of guidelines for the post-theoretical pursuit of fallacy inquiry.     

Evidence coverage and argument skills: cognitive factors in a juror's verdict choice

Juror reasoning and verdict choice have been explored variously as functions of argument skill and the overall story representation of the evidence on which verdict choices are based. This study investigates the proportion of testimony covered in the justification of a verdict choice and its relationship with argument skill, narrative explanation or evidence‐based argument, and certainty about verdict choice. Each of these variables was also compared with the verdict choice. People serving jury duty justified verdict choices in two abridged jury trials. Individuals were consistent in the relative amount of evidence used in both trials. Argument skills, evidence evaluation type, and evidence synthesis type all accounted for variance in the amount of evidence covered. Evidence coverage, along with argument skills, predicted verdict choice. As expected, those most certain about verdict choice did not use the most evidence. Implications regarding mediating factors in story construction and juror decision making are discussed. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Infants' Physical World

Abstract— Investigations of infants' physical world over the past 20 years have revealed two main findings. First, even very young infants possess expectations about physical events. Second, these expectations undergo significant developments during the first year of life, as infants form event categories, such as occlusion, containment, and covering events, and identify the variables relevant for predicting outcomes in each category. A new account of infants' physical reasoning integrates these findings. Predictions from the account are examined in change-blindness and teaching experiments.     

情绪对不同智力水平学生推理操作的影响

本研究试图探讨三种情绪状态(喜悦、中性、悲伤)对13岁不同智力水平学生思维推理操作(简单、一般、复杂)的影响及相互关系。研究表明,在简单和中等推理中,喜悦对优等、中等智力组的推理起更大的促进作用;在较高难度推理中,优等智力组受喜悦情绪的干扰,悲伤对不同智力组都产生干扰作用。对优等智力组而言,情绪强度(由负到正的变化)与智能操作活动效果之间的关系符合耶尔克斯—道森定律,即优等智力组在完成较复杂推理中以中性情绪为最佳;中等智力组和中下等智力组的操作效果不符合该定律。     

Common-sense reasoning as proto-scientific agent activity

We wish to model common-sense reasoning in situations where it contains some of the ingredients typical of proto-scientific reasoning, with a view to future elaboration and proof of concept. To model this proto-scientific narrative, we employ the integrative formal computational machinery we have been developing and implementing for rational cooperative epistemic agents. In our logic-based framework, agents can update their own and each other's theories, which are comprised of knowledge, active rules, integrity constraints, queries, abducibles, and preferences; they can engage in abductive reasoning involving updatable preferences; set each other queries; react to circumstances; plan and carry out actions; and revise their theories and preferences by means of concurrent updates on self and others.     

工作记忆容量和加工速度在归纳推理能力老化中的作用

利用结构方程模型考察了工作记忆容量和加工速度在归纳推理老化中的作用。样本为217名社区老人。结果发现：(1)工作记忆容量在归纳推理老化中具有重要作用．语音环路和视空问初步加工系统在推理过程巾参与程度相当。(2)在年龄和归纳推理能力之问存在年龄——加工速度——工作记忆容量——归纳推理这样一条层级关系。年龄、加工速度和工作记忆容量共同解释归纳推理中57％的变异。     

错觉研究:从狭义到广义的演进

心理学家对错觉现象的关注由来已久,以往的错觉研究大部分关注与知觉过程相联系的错觉。近十几年来,当代错觉研究呈现出新的热点,并从狭义向广义演进。这一研究对象扩展的基础,是错觉现象的本质特征,即认知过程的一致性偏差。广义错觉研究的对象涉及知觉、记忆、思维、推理等各种心理过程。