风险决策中的参照点效应研究

本研究以展望理论和社会决策范式模型为基础,着重探讨三种参照点对个体和群体风险决策产生的影响。３００名被试经实验者设置参照点后分别在个体和群体条件下对不同风险度的博弈方案进行选择。结果表明：（１）个体决策中,损失参照点的被试和无得失经验者比得益者更冒险;（２）得益被试的决策受到社会比较的影响;（３）损失参照点的被试并未对群体决策有更大影响,决定群体决策结果的主要是多数原则。     

Predecision conflict and different patterns of postdecision attractiveness restructuring: empirical illustrations from an important real-life decision

This study presents different postdecision consolidation patterns following decisions made under value conflicts. The different patterns were illustrated by case studies of real-life decisions concerning university programs. There were five program alternatives each of which branched into a different professional area. These decisions were very important to the students. The subjects were followed during a year, from a couple of months before they made their choice of program and during several months after the start of the programs. Different postdecision strategies for consolidating a prior decision were derived from Differentiation and Consolidation Theory (Svenson, 1992). The strategies involved the following postdecision attractiveness restructuring patterns. (1) Reversing an attractiveness disadvantage into an advantage on a conflict attribute, (2) Compensating for a disadvantage through increase of an advantage of another attribute, (3) Reversing disadvantage on a conflict and decreasing advantage on non-conflict attribute(s), and (4) Increasing advantage for chosen alternative on all attributes. In addition, (5) downgrading of importance of the conflict attribute or a complete elimination of this attribute is also a possible way of consolidating the prior decision. The results illustrated the above consolidation patterns. A comparison with subjects who made the same decisions but with no value conflict indicated that postdecision consolidation was largely driven by value conflicts at the time of decision in conjunction with the outcome of the decision.     

Integration and segregation of prior outcomes in risky decisions

Two experiments were conducted to test if a prior outcome influences the likelihood to accept a current gamble. Undergraduate students participating as subjects imagined that they on a fictitious betting day at a horse-race track did not gamble in the prior race, that they gambled and won, or that they gambled and lost. Subjects rated in one session the likelihood of gambling in the current race. In another session they rated how satisfied they would be with not gambling, with winning, and with losing, respectively. The results of Experiment 1 showed that as compared to no prior outcome the ratings of likelihood of gambling increased after a gain and decreased after a loss. This was explained by the assumption, supported by the ratings of satisfaction, that the prior outcome only affected the satisfaction with the expected loss of the current choice, making it less negative after a gain and more negative after a loss. These results were replicated in Experiment 2. In addition, if subjects did not know with certainty the outcome of a previous choice to gamble, the likelihood to accept the current gamble and the ratings of the satisfaction with its expected outcomes were largely unaffected.     

The effect of constant outcome value on judgments and decision making given linguistic probabilities

Two experiments were performed to determine whether judgments of the relative chances of two independent events occurring are biased by constant outcome values contingent on the events when the uncertainties are specified by linguistic expressions (e.g. doubtful). In Experiment 1, subjects directly judged the relative chances of the two events, of which one was represented by a spinner and the other by a linguistic probability expression. In Experiment 2, only linguistic probability expressions were used to describe the two events and a betting procedure was used. A bias was evident in both studies, such that the relative judgments tended to favour the event with the positive rather than the negative contingent outcome. The bias was smaller for the low- than for the high-probability phrases. Individual differences were great, with the bias appearing strongly in only about one-third of the population. Theoretical implications of the present and related results are discussed.     

Adolescent Development and Juvenile Justice

The central question examined in this address is, “Do children's crimes make them adults?” I begin by focusing on the concept and history of adolescence in our society, I then examine the development and philosophy of the juvenile justice system. Adolescent development and juvenile justice are brought together around the concepts of maturity, judgment, and competence, followed by a brief introduction to some current research that we are engaged in regarding the issues of adjudicatory and culpability competence. I conclude with suggested directions for future work.     

Sex differences in functional cerebral asymmetries in a repeated measures design

The aim of the present study was to analyze whether task repetitions which are an inevitable part of repeated measures designs might induce performance alterations specific for gender and hemisphere. Male and female subjects conducted twice a lexical decision, a polygon recognition, and a face discrimination task as a visual half field paradigm with the two experimental sessions repeated by 2 weeks. The results show that only in female subjects can a session effect for the lexical decision and the polygon recognition task be demonstrated which is hemisphere specific. Thus, repeated measures designs seem to have a gender- and hemisphere-specific effects of their own which could confound with other variables under study.     

Development and Evaluation of a Decision Aid About Prenatal Testing for Women of Advanced Maternal Age

Objective: To develop and evaluate a decision aid designed to prepare patients of advanced maternal age for counseling about prenatal diagnostic testing. Setting: A regional genetics center. Design: A before/after study. Interventions: Participants used an audioguided workbook to learn about options and outcomes and to clarify personal risks, values, questions, and predispositions. Subjects: 21 women of advanced maternal age and 17 spouses. Main outcome measures: Knowledge of prenatal testing alternatives, decisional conflict, level of anxiety, and acceptability of the decision aid. Results: After using the decision aid, participants had significantly reduced decisional conflict (uncertainty) and a significant increase in knowledge. There was no effect on state or trait anxiety. More than three-quarters of participants were satisfied with the length, clarity, balance, and acceptability of the decision aid. Conclusions: The decision aid shows promise as a useful aid for preparing couples for counseling.     

The Dream of Consensus: Finding Common Ground in a Bioethical Context

Consensus is the holy grail of bioethics, the lynch pin of the assumption that well informed, well intentioned people may reach generally acceptable positions on ethically contentious issues. It has been especially important in bioethics, where advancing technology has assured an increasing field of complex medical dilemmas. This paper results on the use of a multicriterion decision making system (MCDM) analyzing group process in an attempt to better define hospital policy. In a pilot program at The Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, a series of small scale focus groups was constituted to examine criteria defining organ transplant eligibility. Criteria were organized hierarchically using the Analytic Hierarchy Process, an MCDM approach, and the resulting data was analyzed using Expert Choice 9.0, software designed to facilitate AHP analysis. Qualitative and quantitative analysis map barriers to practical consensus in a way not previously possible.     

Impacts of artificial intelligence on organizational decision making

Of all of the new technologies emerging in the late 20th century, the production of artificial intelligence may provide the most profound impacts on organizational decision making. Because the development of artificial intelligence technologies and models has largely been based on psychological models of human cognition, the effects of their implementation in complex social settings have not been thoroughly examined. This paper is an attempt to generate research which will develop a comprehensive understanding of the impacts of artificial intelligence and its role in complex organizations. A set of 11 hypotheses has been developed which examine the relationships between artificial intelligence technologies and the dimensions of organizational decision making. It is argued here that the implementation of expert systems will lead to less complex and political decision processes, while the implementation of natural language systems will lead to more complex and political decision processes.     

Maximizing the coefficient of generalizability under the constraint of limited resources

A procedure for maximizing the coefficient of generalizability under the constraint of limited resources is presented. The procedure uses optimization techniques that offer an investigator or test constructor the possibility of employing practical constraints. The procedure is illustrated for the two-facet random-model crossed design.