Biased belief in the Bayesian brain: A deeper look at the evidence

A recent critique of hierarchical Bayesian models of delusion argues that, contrary to a key assumption of these models, belief formation in the healthy (i.e., neurotypical) mind is manifestly non-Bayesian. Here we provide a deeper examination of the empirical evidence underlying this critique. We argue that this evidence does not convincingly refute the assumption that belief formation in the neurotypical mind approximates Bayesian inference. Our argument rests on two key points. First, evidence that purports to reveal the most damning violation of Bayesian updating in human belief formation is counterweighted by substantial evidence that indicates such violations are the rare exception—not a common occurrence. Second, the remaining evidence does not demonstrate convincing violations of Bayesian inference in human belief updating; primarily because this evidence derives from study designs that produce results that are not obviously inconsistent with Bayesian principles.     

Preliminary exploration of secondhand smoke exposure in youth with Sickle Cell Disease: biochemical verification,pulmonary functioning,and health care utilization

Exposure to secondhand smoke (SHSe) can compound an already challenging set of health problems for youth with Sickle Cell Disease (SCD). Exposure to electronic cigarettes may also impact SCD symptomology and respiratory functioning. This study built on these previous findings by a) utilizing two objective measures of SHSe, salivary cotinine and exhaled carbon monoxide and b) examining the association of SHSe with emergency department utilization, physician-reported sickle cell crises, and pulmonary functioning. Caregivers (N = 31 dyads; M_age = 37.6 years; SD = 8.5 years) of youth with SCD (M_age = 9.0 years; SD = 4.5 years) completed self-report measures of tobacco/nicotine use. Youth provided a saliva sample to assess cotinine levels, and performed pulmonary function tests. Dyads provided breath samples for measurement of eCO. A chart review was conducted to obtain medical history and utilization. Majority of youth (88%) were exposed to SHS via salivary cotinine. Interestingly, no significant associations were observed between youth cotinine levels and emergency department utilization, physician-reported sickle cell crises, or pulmonary functioning. Present findings indicate a need to assess for SHSe using objective assessment measures. Future research should investigate which specific factors contribute to increase SHSe/SHVe in youth with SCD.     

Care,play and lifelong learning

In this paper, links between the concepts of long-term care and lifelong learning are suggested, and notions of care and the author’s construction of the Pedagogic Third will be proposed. The psychoanalysis of children stresses the importance of symbolic play, during which the child uses games to master internal conflicts. Analogous results might emerge from play that engages adult learners. However, where play helps children define roles and accept rule-regulated behaviour, we consider to what extent an adult learner is addressing desires which cannot be satisfied because they are too threatening, or desires which cannot be satisfied in reality and which are represented symbolically in play as an alternative. In order to work through these ideas, we consider a comedic representation of a hospital ward and an extract from the diary of a midwife who was also a long-term patient. The author’s contribution to the conference was a workshop and not the presentation of a paper. As such, this paper has been written in retrospect and is consequently reflective in stance. Much of the work described in this paper is connected to a larger piece of work, a monograph in progress, due to be published in 2019.     

Logic,Pragmatics, and Types of Conditionals

Johnson-Laird and Byrne distinguished ten kinds of conditionals. Their framework was the mental models theory and they attributed different combinations of semantic possibilities to those ten types of conditionals. Based on such combinations, the mental models theory has clear predictions for reasoning tasks, including those kinds of conditionals and involving reasoning schemata such as Modus Ponens, Modus Tollens, the affirming the consequent fallacy, and the denying the antecedent fallacy. My aim in this paper is to show that the predictions of the mental logic theory for those reasoning tasks are exactly the same as those of the mental models theory, and that, therefore, such tasks are not useful to decide which of the two theories is correct.     

Indexicals: what they are essential for

Abstract

Cappelen and Dever have recently defended the view that indexicals are not essential: They do not signify anything philosophically deep and we do not need indexicals for any important philosophical work. This paper contests their view from the point of view of an account of intentional agency. It argues that we need indexicals essentially when accounting for what it is do something intentionally and, as a consequence, intentional action, and defends a view of intentional action as a possible conclusion of practical reasoning where the indexical is essential for the content of such a conclusion.     

When Fairness Clashes with Personal Autonomy and Parental Authority: A Comparison of Daughters' and Mothers' Reasoning in Two Cultural Contexts in Turkey

The author examined religious and secular daughters' and mothers' reasoning about personal autonomy, maternal authority, and moral concepts in family decision-making situations in urban Turkey. Sixty-eight daughters and 34 mothers were individually interviewed about decision-making autonomy in general issues and hypothetical daughter–mother conflicts. Results indicated participants regardless of their family status and religious background assigned more decision-making autonomy to mothers when evaluating general issues. Analysis of controversial issues as hypothetical conflicts indicated that daughters and mothers do not hold unitary social judgments about the social world that were always consistent with the norms of their community and family status. There were some religious background differences in evaluations of some conflict stories as a function of whether they evaluated the choices as moral, conventional, personal, and prudential matters. Although secular and religious participants conceptualized daughters and mothers in relational terms rather than characterizing the relations and social issues by harmony, obedience to authority, and acceptance of norms findings suggested that secular women evaluated the hypothetical adolescent–mother conflicts more consistently when the issue entails violation of a moral principle such as justice, fairness, and well-being of the other.     

Matthews Model of Clinical Reasoning: A Systematic Approach to Conceptualize Evaluation and Intervention

Clinical reasoning is a complex process required for effective therapeutic encounters. Its development is poorly understood. The clinical reasoning process is placed in a historical context based on the occupational therapy literature. An emerging model of clinical reasoning is proposed. This model of clinical reasoning provides a unique perspective in order to compartmentalize the person, environment, and occupation constructs around the person’s life story, connect it directly to the occupational therapy practice framework, and determine treatment priorities, emphasizing a client-centered perspective. A client-centered model of clinical reasoning supports efforts to provide effective intervention.     

Extending SME to Handle Large‐Scale Cognitive Modeling

Analogy and similarity are central phenomena in human cognition, involved in processes ranging from visual perception to conceptual change. To capture this centrality requires that a model of comparison must be able to integrate with other processes and handle the size and complexity of the representations required by the tasks being modeled. This paper describes extensions to Structure‐Mapping Engine (SME) since its inception in 1986 that have increased its scope of operation. We first review the basic SME algorithm, describe psychological evidence for SME as a process model, and summarize its role in simulating similarity‐based retrieval and generalization. Then we describe five techniques now incorporated into the SME that have enabled it to tackle large‐scale modeling tasks: (a) Greedy merging rapidly constructs one or more best interpretations of a match in polynomial time: O(n²log(n)); (b) Incremental operation enables mappings to be extended as new information is retrieved or derived about the base or target, to model situations where information in a task is updated over time; (c) Ubiquitous predicates model the varying degrees to which items may suggest alignment; (d) Structural evaluation of analogical inferences models aspects of plausibility judgments; (e) Match filters enable large‐scale task models to communicate constraints to SME to influence the mapping process. We illustrate via examples from published studies how these enable it to capture a broader range of psychological phenomena than before.     

Causal Models Drive Preference between Drugs that Treat a Focal versus Multiple Symptoms

This research examines the effects of causal beliefs on drug preference. In three studies, 374 undergraduate participants imagined that they suffered from a focal symptom and then indicated their preference between a drug claiming to treat only the focal symptom (single treatment) and a drug claiming to treat the focal symptom and a nonfocal symptom (dual treatment) they thought resulted from a common‐cause or from a different cause. Participants who thought that the symptoms resulted from different causes significantly preferred the single treatment drug more and the dual treatment drug less than participants who thought the symptoms resulted from a common‐cause. Process analysis yielded a significant mediation effect. Specifically, an individual's causal model determines preference by affecting the estimates of the potential gain and loss associated with using each drug. Participants who held a common‐cause model concerning the source of the symptoms thought they would be more likely to need the nonfocal treatment provided by the dual treatment drug and less likely to suffer from side effects when taking this drug, than those with a different‐cause model. The results demonstrate the influence of causal structure on judgment and choice. © 2017 The Authors Journal of Behavioral Decision Making Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Set size,assertion form,thematic content and sampling in the selection task

Participants attempted to solve a modified version of Wason's (1966) selection task. Variables were: (1) sizes of the sets referenced by a specified assertion, (2) form of the assertion (conditional or categorical), (3) thematic content of the assertion (letters and numbers or makes and owners of taxicabs), and (4) the need for sampling or not. In Experiment 1, participants were given enough information to determine the truth or falsity of the specified assertion with certainty; in Experiment 2, they had to rely on sampling and could not determine the assertion's truth or falsity with certainty. Performance was better in Experiment 1 than in Experiment 2, but in both cases much better than what is typically obtained with the conventional selection task. The results support the hypothesis that performance of the selection task is sensitive to the sizes of the sets involved, add credence to the conclusion that framing the task in a thematically meaningful way can facilitate performance, and demonstrate that facilitation does not require deontic reasoning or a well-known convention being involved. The relationship between expressed confidence and level of performance is consistent with other studies showing the former to be a good predictor of the latter.