Expectation theories of decision making for duplex gambles

Complete tests of subjectively expected utility (SEU), subjectively expected value (SEV), expected utility (EU) and expected value (EV) theories were made for duplex gambles without measuring subjective probability or subjective utility. All gambles were hypothetical and offered on booklets. The duplex gambles consisted of winning gambles, which offered a chance to win a certain amount of money or to break even; and losing gambles, which offered a chance to lose a certain amount of money or break even.The results indicated that SEU, SEV and EU theories could not account for the strategies of 33%, 53% and 86% of the Ss respectively in the losing form of gambles, while EV theory accounted for 78% of the behavior of Ss.In the winning form of gambles, SEU, SEV and EU theory held for 77%, 65%, and 54% of the Ss respectively, while EV theory held for only 40% of the Ss. Suggestions for further research were made.     

Performance expectancies and affect associated with outcomes as a function of time perspective

An experiment was conducted to investigate the effects of time perspective on performance expectancies and the subjective evaluation of outcomes in regard to a task at which subjects had previously succeeded or failed. Prior research has produced conflicting findings on the subjective evaluation of positive and negative outcomes, but some of the research has dealt with tangible rewards and punishments while other work has been concerned with performance outcomes involving tasks with which subjects were unfamiliar. In the current study subjects first succeeded or failed on either an easy or difficult task. They then stated performance expectancies and made evaluations of the affect associated with success and failure in regard to performing the task again immediately, in 3 wk, or in 21 wk. Results indicated a significant decrease over time for both the satisfaction associated with passing and the dissatisfaction associated with failure. Performance expectancies were significantly higher for the testing period of 21 wk in the future than for either the immediate or 3-wk testing period, but this difference was evidenced only for subjects who initially passed the test.     

Effect of locus of control,expectancy confirmation-disconfirmation,and type of goal on causal attributions of failure

Two experiments demonstrated interactive effects between locus of control and expectancy confirmation-disconfirmation in determining attribution of failure. Experiencing an expected versus an unexpected failure significantly influenced the performance attributions of internals but not externals. The first experiment also demonstrated an interaction between locus of control and type of performance goal (self-determined versus other-determined) in determining failure attribution. When the performance goal was other-determined, there were significant differences between internals and externals in their attributions of failure, but these differences did not materialize when the performance goals were selfdetermined, in the absence of any externally defined standard. Interpretation of results focused on the differences between internals and externals in regard to information processing and certain cognitive characteristics as they are related to the attribution of outcomes.     

On the study of statistical intuitions

The study of intuitions and errors in judgment under uncertainty is complicated by several factors: discrepancies between acceptance and application of normative rules; effects of content on the application of rules; Socratic hints that create intuitions while testing them; demand characteristics of within-subject experiments; subjects' interpretations of experimental messages according to standard conversational rules. The positive analysis of a judgmental error in terms of heuristics may be supplemented by a negative analysis, which seeks to explain why the correct rule is not intuitively compelling. A negative analysis of non-regressive prediction is outlined.     

Illusory conjunctions in the perception of objects

In perceiving objects we may synthesize conjunctions of separable features by directing attention serially to each item in turn (A. Treisman and G. Gelade, Cognitive Psychology, 1980, 12, 97–136). This feature-integration theory predicts that when attention is diverted or overloaded, features may be wrongly recombined, giving rise to “illusory conjunctions.” The present paper confirms that illusory conjunctions are frequently experienced among unattended stimuli varying in color and shape, and that they occur also with size and solidity (outlined versus filled-in shapes). They are shown both in verbal recall and in simultaneous and successive matching tasks, making it unlikely that they depend on verbal labeling or on memory failure. They occur as often between stimuli differing on many features as between more similar stimuli, and spatial separation has little effect on their frequency. Each feature seems to be coded as an independent entity and to migrate, when attention is diverted, with few constraints from the other features of its source or destination.     

The development of grapheme-phoneme correspondence in normal and dyslexic readers

The present experiment was concerned with the development of grapheme-phoneme conversion ability in normal and reading-age matched dyslexic readers. The use of grapheme-phoneme correspondences was observed in a recognition memory task for pronounceable nonwords. The nonwords were presented in either the visual or auditory modality and had to be recognized immediately from the converse modality, thus necessitating decoding of stimuli across modalities. The use of grapheme-phoneme correspondences increased with reading age in the normal readers but not in the dyslexics. It was postulated that dyslexics have a specific difficulty in grapheme-phoneme conversion. For them an increase in reading age is attributable mainly to an increase in size of sight vocabulary.     

Power and social context in superior-subordinate interaction

Power differences are thought to interfere with superiors' interaction with subordinates. However, it is also argued that superiors with considerable power are most supportive of their subordinates. To explore these opposing positions, 90 undergraduates became managers with either high or low power who believed their goals were cooperatively, individualistically, or competitively related to their subordinate. Results support the hypothesis that social context affects how superiors use their power to interact with subordinates. High- and low-power superiors in cooperation had positive expectations, interacted constructively, restated the task, responded to requests for assistance, and developed a positive relationship compared to high- and low-power superiors in individualistic and competitive situations. In addition, only the high-power superiors in cooperation used their expertise to give direct aid to the subordinate. Results indicate that in cooperation superiors are likely to use their power constructively; however, in competitive and individualistic contexts, superiors are apt to fail to use their resources to facilitate subordinate performance. Results were also interpreted as suggesting that it is not so much the extent of superiors' power but the social context that affects their use of power and interaction with subordinates.     

RELIGION AND FRANCIS BACON'S SCIENTIFIC UTOPIANISM

Francis Bacon often is depicted as a patriarch of modernity who promotes human rational action over faith in divine Providence and as a secular humanitarian who realized that improvement of the human condition depended on human action and not on God's saving acts in history. Bacon's New Atlantis is usually described as a “scientific utopia” because its ideal order, harmony, and prosperity are the result of the investigations of nature conducted by the members of Solomon's House. I challenge these characterizations by showing that Bacon's so‐called scientific utopianism is grounded in his religious convictions that his age was one of Providential intervention and that he was God's agent for an apocalyptic transformation of the human condition. I examine the centrality of these religious themes in two of his philosophical works, The Advancement of Learning and The Great Instauration, which are well known for setting out Bacon's critique of the state of learning and for presenting the principles of his epistemology. Analysis of The Advancement of Learning demonstrates Bacon's conviction that his reform of natural philosophy was part of a Providentially guided, twofold restoration of the knowledge of nature and the knowledge of God. Examination of The Great Instauration reveals that Bacon sees his age as one of apocalyptic transformation of the human condition that restores humanity to a prelapsarian state. Analysis of the New Atlantis shows that utopian perfection can be achieved only through a combination of right religion and the proper study of nature. Moreover, when the “scientific” work of Solomon's House is recontextualized within the religious themes of salvation and deliverance that permeate the New Atlantis, the full scope of Bacon's “scientific utopianism” can be seen, and this project is not the one usually portrayed in scholarly treatments. Bacon's program for rehabilitating humanity and its relation to nature is not a secular, scientific advance through which humanity gains dominion over nature and mastery of its own destiny but rather one guided by divine Providence and achieved through pious human effort.     

Transport risk evaluations associated with past exposure to adverse security events in public transport

The current study aims to examine differences in risk evaluations according to whether individuals have been exposed to adverse security events in transport during the last five years. In addition, a path model is tested where risk evaluations predict intentions to use public transport and use of such transport in these groups. The results are based on a survey conducted in a randomly obtained representative sample of the Norwegian urban public (n = 1043). The results showed that individuals who had been exposed to adverse security events in public transport reported substantially higher risk perception of experiencing security issues in such transport than those who were not exposed. Exposed individuals also reported higher probability judgements and more worry of experiencing injury in public transport. The path model showed that high probability judgements of experiencing injury in public transport were related to a lower intention of using such transport, whereas corresponding worry in the private motorized sector predicted a stronger intention to use public transport. Demand for risk mitigation in the public transport sector was found to be more relevant for intentions to use public transport than similar demands in the private motorized sector. The path model and coefficients were not found to differ significantly according to exposure to security events in public transport. The findings are discussed in relation to the role of negative risk experiences for risk evaluations in transport.     

A Survival Analysis of Communal-Living, Self-Help, Addiction Recovery Participants

We examined individual and group characteristics associated with the duration of community involvement (i.e., length of residence) in 11 Illinois Oxford Houses for 129 male recovering addicts. Survival analyses indicated that the best predictor of duration of community involvement from demographic items was age (i.e., older age and older age of fellow residents were associated with being more likely to continue residence). Among psychological measures, the best survival predictor was lack of pessimism of the future. Although the relationship between longer length of residence and treatment outcomes are complex, because it is often difficult to keep people involved in treatment programs, knowledge that we can gain about those factors that might lead to greater lengths of stay are of importance.