Expectation theories of decision making for duplex gambles

Complete tests of subjectively expected utility (SEU), subjectively expected value (SEV), expected utility (EU) and expected value (EV) theories were made for duplex gambles without measuring subjective probability or subjective utility. All gambles were hypothetical and offered on booklets. The duplex gambles consisted of winning gambles, which offered a chance to win a certain amount of money or to break even; and losing gambles, which offered a chance to lose a certain amount of money or break even.The results indicated that SEU, SEV and EU theories could not account for the strategies of 33%, 53% and 86% of the Ss respectively in the losing form of gambles, while EV theory accounted for 78% of the behavior of Ss.In the winning form of gambles, SEU, SEV and EU theory held for 77%, 65%, and 54% of the Ss respectively, while EV theory held for only 40% of the Ss. Suggestions for further research were made.     

On the study of statistical intuitions

The study of intuitions and errors in judgment under uncertainty is complicated by several factors: discrepancies between acceptance and application of normative rules; effects of content on the application of rules; Socratic hints that create intuitions while testing them; demand characteristics of within-subject experiments; subjects' interpretations of experimental messages according to standard conversational rules. The positive analysis of a judgmental error in terms of heuristics may be supplemented by a negative analysis, which seeks to explain why the correct rule is not intuitively compelling. A negative analysis of non-regressive prediction is outlined.     

Illusory conjunctions in the perception of objects

In perceiving objects we may synthesize conjunctions of separable features by directing attention serially to each item in turn (A. Treisman and G. Gelade, Cognitive Psychology, 1980, 12, 97–136). This feature-integration theory predicts that when attention is diverted or overloaded, features may be wrongly recombined, giving rise to “illusory conjunctions.” The present paper confirms that illusory conjunctions are frequently experienced among unattended stimuli varying in color and shape, and that they occur also with size and solidity (outlined versus filled-in shapes). They are shown both in verbal recall and in simultaneous and successive matching tasks, making it unlikely that they depend on verbal labeling or on memory failure. They occur as often between stimuli differing on many features as between more similar stimuli, and spatial separation has little effect on their frequency. Each feature seems to be coded as an independent entity and to migrate, when attention is diverted, with few constraints from the other features of its source or destination.     

Levels in the identifying of orientation by preschool children

A new approach to understanding the perception of orientation proposes that the first level in the processing of orientation information results in perceiving whether a shape is upright or nonupright; nonupright orientations are not distinguished from each other. As predicted, children of 3 and 4 years discriminated upright from nonupright pictures more readily than they discriminated the nonuprights (upside down and sideways) from each other. The angular differences between the pairs of discriminanda (whether 90 or 180°) had no effect on performance. the difficulty of distinguishing between nonuprights could not be attributed simply to a lack of attention to the dimension of orientation. The theory appears to have considerable generality, and provides a basis for understanding (1) perception of the orientation of both realistic and geometric shapes, and (2) similarities in orientation perception observed between children and adults.     

Layoffs,self-esteem,and survivor guilt: Motivational,affective, and attitudinal consequences

The present study explored the effect of layoffs on the subsequent productivity of “survivors”. All participants performed a proofreading task either after witnessing the dismissal of a co-worker (Layoff condition) or not (No-Layoff condition). Consistent with equity theory, the quantity of workers' performance was greater in the Layoff than in the No-Layoff condition. A Worker Self-Esteem × Layoff interaction effect revealed that the Layoff effect was entirely attributable to the low, rather than the medium or high, self-esteem participants. Additional analyses revealed that the layoff caused participants to (1) experience increased feelings of remorse and (2) develop more negative attitudes toward their co-worker, both of which are also consistent with equity theory. Practical and theoretical implications are discussed.