考试评分缺失数据的概化理论分析

考试评分缺失数据较为常见,如何有效利用现有数据进行统计分析是个关键性问题。在考试评分中,题目与评分者对试卷得分的影响不容忽视。根据概化理论原理,按考试评分规则推导出含有缺失数据双侧面交叉设计（p×i×r）方差分量估计公式,用Matlab7.0软件模拟多组缺失数据,验证此公式的有效性。结果发现：（1）推导出的公式较为可靠,估计缺失数据的方差分量偏差相对较小,即便数据缺失率达到50％以上,公式仍能对方差分量进行较为准确地估计;（2）题目数量对概化理论缺失数据方差分量的估计影响最大,评分者次之,当题目和评价者数量分别为6和5时,公式能够趋于稳定地估计;（3）学生数量对各方差分量的估计影响较小,无论是小规模考试还是大规模考试,概化理论估计缺失数据的多个方差分量结果相差不大。     

常见肺栓塞评分方法及临床应用

肺栓塞评分方法是国际上肺栓塞诊断策略的重要基础。本文简要介绍国际上常用肺栓塞评分方法,即Wells法、Geneva法、Geneva改良法、Pisa法和Claudia法,并评价和比较这些方法在临床上的应用,建议建立并规范使用适合我国国情的肺栓塞评分方法。     

On Enhancing the Cross‐Cultural Comparability of Likert‐Scale Personality and Value Measures: A Comparison of Common Procedures

This study aims to evaluate a number of procedures that have been proposed to enhance cross‐cultural comparability of personality and value data. A priori procedures (anchoring vignettes and direct measures of response styles (i.e. acquiescence, extremity, midpoint responding, and social desirability), a posteriori procedures focusing on data transformations prior to analysis (ipsatization and item parcelling), and two data modelling procedures (treating data as continuous vs as ordered categories) were compared using data collected from university students in 16 countries. We found that (i) anchoring vignettes showed lack of invariance, so they were not bias‐free; (ii) anchoring vignettes showed higher internal consistencies than raw scores where all other correction procedures, notably ipsatization, showed lower internal consistencies; (iii) in measurement invariance testing, no procedure yielded scalar invariance; anchoring vignettes and item parcelling slightly improved comparability, response style correction did not affect it, and ipsatization resulted in lower comparability; (iv) treating Likert‐scale data as categorical resulted in higher levels of comparability; (v) factor scores of scales extracted from different procedures showed similar correlational patterning; and (vi) response style correction was the only procedure that suggested improvement in external validity of country‐level conscientiousness. We conclude that, although no procedure resolves all comparability issues, anchoring vignettes, parcelling, and treating data as ordered categories seem promising to alleviate incomparability. We advise caution in uncritically applying any of these procedures. Copyright © 2017 European Association of Personality Psychology     

Effects of Differential Item Functioning on Examinees' Test Performance and Reliability of Test

Simulations were conducted to examine the effect of differential item functioning (DIF) on measurement consequences such as total scores, item response theory (IRT) ability estimates, and test reliability in terms of the ratio of true-score variance to observed-score variance and the standard error of estimation for the IRT ability parameter. The objective was to provide bounds of the likely DIF effects on these measurement consequences. Five factors were manipulated: test length, percentage of DIF items per form, item type, sample size, and level of group ability difference. Results indicate that the greatest DIF effect was less than 2 points on the 0 to 60 total score scale and about 0.15 on the IRT ability scale. DIF had a limited effect on the ratio of true-score variance to observed-score variance, but its influence on the standard error of estimation for the IRT ability parameter was evident for certain ability values.     

探索性因子分析及其在应用中存在的主要问题

探索性因子分析的发展非常迅速,已成为教育与社会心理学领域中最常用的统计方法之一。本文全面介绍了探索性因子分析的基本原理,阐述了其发生的机制及基本过程,对其在教育、心理领域应用中存在的问题进行了总结,并针对应用中样本容量和观测变量数目不够、因子求解方法的误用、因子数目的确定标准及因子旋转中存在的问题、因子值缺乏重复验证性、研究结果呈现形式不规范、过于依赖SPSS、缺乏主动性等问题提出了一些相应的建议。     

ABCD2评分法预测短暂性脑缺血发作后脑卒中发病风险的研究

为探讨APCD2评分法在短暂性脑缺血发作（T1A）后脑卒中发生风险的预测价值,选择发病48小时内的颈内动脉系统TIA患者112例进行ABCD2评定并分为0分、低危、中危、高危组并随访6个月。结果显示,高危组血管狭窄和软斑块程度较0分组、低危组、中危组显著严重;7天时高危组较中危、低危组卒中发生率显著增高;30天、60天...     

Robust inference with binary data

In this paper robustness properties of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and several robust estimators for the logistic regression model when the responses are binary are analysed. It is found that the MLE and the classical Rao's score test can be misleading in the presence of model misspecification which in the context of logistic regression means either misclassification's errors in the responses, or extreme data points in the design space. A general framework for robust estimation and testing is presented and a robust estimator as well as a robust testing procedure are presented. It is shown that they are less influenced by model misspecifications than their classical counterparts. They are finally applied to the analysis of binary data from a study on breastfeeding.The author is partially supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation. She would like to thank Rand Wilcox, Eva Cantoni and Elvezio Ronchetti for their helpful comments on earlier versions of the paper, as well as Stephane Heritier for providing the routine to compute the OBRE.     

小学优生与差生完成系列回忆任务错误类型发展的实验研究

主要探讨了小学优生与差生在完成系列回忆记忆任务时出现错误的发展情况。实验以小学一、三、五年级的学生作为被试,每年级优生与差生各10名。以普通(不形似,不近音)、形似和近音三种类型汉字为实验材料,要求被试按材料呈现的顺序进行回忆。结果发现：在完成系列回忆任务时,小学生表现出四种错误类型,错误率从高到低依次是：移动错误、遗漏错误、侵入错误、重复错误。每一类型的错误率都是优生显著少于差生。研究还发现四种错误受材料特点的影响,即各年级小学生错误率从高到低近音字、形似字、普通字。     

The Long‐Term Impact of Natural Mentoring Relationships: A Counterfactual Analysis

Previous research suggests that youth's natural mentoring relationships are associated with better academic, vocational, and psychosocial functioning. However, little is known about the extent to which the impact of mentoring endures beyond adolescence and early adulthood. Furthermore, most natural mentoring research is confounded by selection bias. In this study, we examined the long‐term impact of mentoring using the nationally representative, longitudinal Add Health dataset. We conducted counterfactual analysis, a more stringent test of causality than regression‐based approaches. Compared to their unmentored counterparts, adults (ages 33–42) who had a natural mentor during adolescence or emerging adulthood reported higher educational attainment, more time spent volunteering, and more close friends, after controlling for a range of confounding factors. However, outcomes differed when mentors were classified as “strong ties” (e.g., grandparents, friends) or “weak ties” (e.g., teachers, coaches, employers). Having a strong‐tie mentor was associated with having more close friends and a lower income. In contrast, having a weak‐tie mentor was associated with higher educational attainment, higher income, and more time spent volunteering. These findings suggest that natural mentoring relationships can exert lasting influence on young people's developmental trajectories, providing strong rationale for efforts to expand their availability and scope.     

A Scanpath Analysis of the Risky Decision‐Making Process

In the field of eye tracking, scanpath analysis can reflect the sequential and temporal properties of the cognitive process. However, the advantages of scanpath analysis have not yet been utilized in the study of risky decision making. We explored the methodological applicability of scanpath analysis to test models of risky decision making by analyzing published data from the eye‐tracking studies of Su et al. (2013); Wang and Li (2012), and Sun, Rao, Zhou, and Li (2014). These studies used a proportion task, an outcome‐matched presentation condition, and a multiple‐play condition as the baseline for comparison with information search and processing in the risky decision‐making condition. We found that (i) the similarity scores of the intra‐conditions were significantly higher than those of the inter‐condition; (ii) the scanpaths of the two conditions were separable; and (iii) based on an inspection of typical trials, the patterns of the scanpaths differed between the two conditions. These findings suggest that scanpath analysis is reliable and valid for examining the process of risky decision making. In line with the findings of the three original studies, our results indicate that risky decision making is unlikely to be based on a weighting and summing process, as hypothesized by the family of expectation models. The findings highlight a new methodological direction for research on decision making. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.