Uncovering unknown unknowns: Towards a Baconian approach to management decision-making

Bayesian decision theory and inference have left a deep and indelible mark on the literature on management decision-making. There is however an important issue that the machinery of classical Bayesianism is ill equipped to deal with, that of “unknown unknowns” or, in the cases in which they are actualised, what are sometimes called “Black Swans”. This issue is closely related to the problems of constructing an appropriate state space under conditions of deficient foresight about what the future might hold, and our aim is to develop a theory and some of the practicalities of state space elaboration that addresses these problems. Building on ideas originally put forward by Bacon (1620), we show how our approach can be used to build and explore the state space, how it may reduce the extent to which organisations are blindsided by Black Swans, and how it ameliorates various well-known cognitive biases.     

THE IMAGO DEI AS THE MIND OF JESUS CHRIST

In this essay I examine David Clough's interpretation of the imago Dei and his use of “creaturely” language in his book On Animals: Volume 1, Systematic Theology. Contrary to Clough, I argue that the imago Dei should be interpreted as being uniquely human. Using a neuroscientific approach, I elaborate on my claim that while Jesus is the image of God perfected, the imago Dei is best understood as having the mind of Christ. In regards to language, I make the case that using terms such as “creature” when referring to nonhuman animals is problematic in that it can serve to alienate human beings from their capacity to image God. In addition I argue that “creaturely” language raises concerns for the African American community given Western Christianity's history as it relates to their valuation of black bodies and human enslavement.     

浅谈美国自由文化的具体体现

美国人崇尚自由民主,自美国独立以来近三百年时间里一直贯彻自由民主思想,并以此作为执政理念。本文将从美国人日常生活、自由创词、接纳外来词汇三方面,结合美国历史来分析美国自由文化,并从中吸取优点,发展中国文化。     

From Mourning to Action: African American Women's Grief,Pain, and Activism

The Movement for Black Lives has brought particular attention to the experience of grief in the lives of African American mothers and its use in their advocacy for social reform. Grief-inspired activism is historically significant in the African American community. By highlighting the historical connections between Mamie Bradley Till and present-day African American mothers’ grief over their deceased children, we will discuss the role of grief and mourning in the lives of African American mothers and the way in which their grief is pivotal in shaping their involvement in social justice movements. Furthermore, we will provide suggestions on how to promote social activism among African American mothers.     

Adaptation of the Coping With Stress Course for Black Adolescents in Low-Income Communities: Examples of Surface Structure and Deep Structure Cultural Adaptations

Black adolescents in low-income communities are at increased risk of developing mental health problems due to the impact of cumulative poverty-related stressors and racial discrimination, yet Black youth have relatively low rates of mental health service utilization, resulting in significant unmet need. The Coping With Stress (CWS) Course is an evidence-based, cognitive behavioral intervention that has been shown to reduce the incidence of anxiety, mood, and conduct problems among predominantly White samples, as well as Asian and Latinx youth. In the past 25 years since the CWS Course was introduced, Black adolescents have either been severely underrepresented or conspicuously absent from program evaluation research on the CWS Course, with few exceptions. The purpose of this article is threefold: (1) to justify the need for cultural adaptations to the CWS Course for Black adolescents from low-income communities, (2) to describe the scientific basis for the specific surface structure and deep structure modifications made to the culturally adapted version of the CWS Course, known as Resilient In spite of Stressful Events or RISE, and (3) to illustrate the deep structure adaptations with a vignette drawn from implementation of the RISE program with Black adolescents in a low-income, urban community.     

Families and Schools Together: an experimental analysis of a parent-mediated multi-family group program for American Indian children

The goals of this randomized intervention study were to: (a) increase academic performance among American Indian children ages 4-9 years and (b) reduce classroom problem behaviors. To achieve these goals, the multi-family group program called Families and Schools Together (FAST) was adapted with three American Indian Nations in Wisconsin. Over 3 years, seven multi-family group cycles of FAST were implemented, each lasting 8 weeks. In collaboration with the College of Menominee Nation, this parent intervention approach was adapted to express tribal values while maintaining its core components. Fifty pairs of universally recruited American Indian students at three schools who were assessed, matched on five variables, and then randomly assigned to either the FAST or non-FAST control condition. Pretest, posttest, and 9- to 12-month follow-up data were collected by American Indian staff and university students on multiple indicators of academic and behavioral performance. Of the 50 families that attended FAST meetings at least once, 40 graduated (80%) from the 7 FAST cycles. On the immediate posttest, statistically significant differences in improvement, favoring FAST participants were found on the Aggressive Behavior scale of the teacher-rated Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) and on the parent-rated Withdrawn scale of the same instrument. On the 1-year follow-up assessment, parent CBCL ratings indicated that FAST students had maintained their less withdrawn status and teacher ratings on the Social Skills Rating Scale (SSRS) revealed that FAST participants had exhibited relatively greater improvement in their academic competence. Parent surveys of the graduated students generally showed satisfaction with the program. Implications of the present results and future research directions are discussed.     

Environmental Influences on Fighting Versus Nonviolent Behavior in Peer Situations: A Qualitative Study with Urban African American Adolescents

This qualitative study explored environmental factors that influence adolescents’ responses to problem situations involving peers. Interviews were conducted with 106 middle school students (97% African American) from an urban school system. Participants were asked to describe factors that would make it easier and those that would make it more difficult for adolescents to make specific responses to problem situations. Two types of responses were presented: nonviolent responses identified as effective in a previous study, and fighting responses. Qualitative analysis identified 24 themes representing family, peer, school, and neighborhood and broader social factors that were related to both nonviolent behavior and fighting. The identification of environmental influences on fighting and nonviolent responses has important implications for efforts to reduce aggression and promote effective nonviolent responses to problem situations encountered by adolescents.     

Psychosocial Correlates of Medical Mistrust Among African American Men

The current study proposed and tested a conceptual model of medical mistrust in a sample of African American men (N = 216) recruited primarily from barbershops in the Midwest and Southeast regions of the United States. Potential psychosocial correlates were grouped into background factors, masculine role identity/socialization factors, recent healthcare experiences, recent socioenvironmental experiences (e.g., discrimination), and healthcare system outcome expectations (e.g., perceived racism in healthcare). Direct and mediated relationships were assessed. Results from the hierarchical regression analyses suggest that perceived racism in healthcare was the most powerful correlate of medical mistrust even after controlling for other factors. Direct effects were found for age, masculine role identity, recent patient–physician interaction quality, and discrimination experiences. Also, perceived racism in healthcare mediated the relationship between discrimination experiences and medical mistrust. These findings suggest that African American men’s mistrust of healthcare organizations is related to personal characteristics, previous negative social/healthcare experiences, and expectations of disparate treatment on the basis of race. These findings also imply that aspects of masculine role identity shape the tone of patient–physician interactions in ways that impede trust building processes.     

犹太教在当代北美的表现

犹太教的本质体现为对上帝的信仰和对其律法的遵从。由于对上帝的信仰只是被视为是犹太教的前提,犹太教一向不注重对上帝本质的论述,因此,对其律法的遵从便成为犹太教事实上的主体。在日常生活中是否践行律法是犹太教有别于其他一神信仰的主要标准,也是判断一个犹太人是否守教的主要标准。当今北美犹太人在践行犹太律法中表现出的"多样性"突出体现了犹太教这一"自由"解读律法以及在自身内容上添加新思维的传统。了解犹太教在当代北美的新表现有助于认识犹太教在当代的发展趋势。