Prediction has been central in the development of both science and society. Chaos theory, however, has given rise to the widespread belief that in all but the most stable situations prediction of the future is impossible. But this belief is contradicted by theory and findings over many years of the psychology of prediction as well as by the findings of the new field of chaos psychology and the experience of entrepreneurs in business and political leaders. At stake is a belief central to an enormous body of “law” in all scientific fields as well as to business, political, and governmental managers and leaders concerned with governance of economic and political systems in a time of global social chaos. At its core, the problem is a critical one for the development of a General Evolution Theory that can span the findings of natural science and social science to find “laws” consonant with systems requirements at both pre‐human and human evolutionary levels. This paper analyzes the problem in terms of chaos theoretical views of the limits of predictability, evidence from the fields of psychology and brain research of human predictive abilities that transcend these limits, and the practical consequence of a resolution of this conflict for science and society. 相似文献
The possibility of long wave economic cycles are considered under both market capitalism and command socialism. Capitalist long waves can be generated by a two‐stage multiplier‐accelerator model and socialist long waves can be generated by an equivalent model strictly for investment cycles. Under certain conditions chaotic dynamics can occur at turning points in both cases. It is argued that a systemic crisis leading to a systemic transformation is most likely to occur at such a point. 相似文献
The argument of this paper—'an ecology of goods'—could be summarized as follows: Goods exist only in relation to each other. Goods form groups, and in time higher organizational levels, groups of groups, i.e. networks of artifacts emerge. Mass consumption society is the most developed manifestation of this organizing process. The process of association and dissociation of goods is only partly controllable through human decisions. Human beings making decisions about buying, using and disposing of goods are constrained by the “logic” of the general organizing process. This process emerges out of different kinds interactions between commodities and feedback cycles with unintended consequences. In routinization and institutionalization processes commodity interactions become stabilized, i.e. the fidelity of replicative cycles increases. From this perspective, a system of commodities could be seen as an entity, which reproduces itself in a continuous resource exchange with its co‐actors and environment. In a system there is both a tendency toward functional differentiation and integration with other systems. Accordingly, systems of goods are cyclic processes within processes rather than given stable entities. This approach places many theoretical and practical problems of consumer society in a new perspective. 相似文献
There are very significant conceptual links between theories of social macroevolution and theories of the World System development. It is shown that the growth of the World System complexity and integrity can be traced through a system of phase transitions of macroevolution. The first set of phase transition is connected with the agrarian, industrial, and information-scientific revolutions (that are interpreted as changes of “production principles”). The second set consists of phase transitions within one production principle. These phase transitions are analyzed on the basis of the World System urbanization dynamics, but they can be traced with respect to the other (cultural, economic, technological, demographic, political, etc.) dimensions of the World System development. 相似文献
The growth of the modern corporation from local and nationally centered origins to the multinational and then the global level is traced on the one hand to global flows of matter, energy, and information, and on the other to the geographic and political constraints exercised by nation-states. The emergence of the global corporation follows basic laws of evolution applicable to all complex systems, whether in nature or in society. Thus the global corporation is a new but not an anomalous phenomenon on the stage of history. 相似文献
The evolution of artifacts has been accretive in ideas, materials, energy, and function, resulting in increasing numbers and kinds of artifacts, whereas ideological and social evolution has largely been substitutive and slower. Innovations in caloric, chemic and biologic energies may have been initiated by women, with elaborations by men resulting in specialization. Evolution of materials used in the manufacture of the food, shelter, tool, and toy functions now puts us firmly in the Synthetic Stage, preceded by half a million years of the Natural Stage of human artifact evolution. The toy function is being increasingly interwoven with other functions. Trade in techniques, materials, and finished artifacts has resulted in artifactual similarities around the world, giving hope for a true unification of mankind. 相似文献
Here I discuss the basic elements, major stages, and completion of progressive evolution. The cosmic world of self-realization is based on extensive self-development within a closed contour: temporal counter-transitions of spatial counter-elements (energy bonds and media and, basically, substance structures) form of local worlds within it through evolution of informational structures.
The organic world of reproduction develops through the open informational path: the initial substance, through energy exchange and metabolism, reproduces similar substance; the latter interacts with the environment and, subsequently, reproduces its like, and so on.
The animal world of self-regulation builds up a closed informational contour in the environment through the informational input and command output.
The human world of self-cognition forms the intensive type of development within the internal closed informational contour of cognition. Counter-transitions of ideal images and signs relate to their real prototypes. In the course of cognition, abstractive thinking develops and brings man to the possibility of reflection of the initial world in its integrity (thus, elevates man to the infinite, by Hegel).
Attempts to create a coherent scientific picture of the world as a whole on the basis of quantum physics has sped up at the turn of the millennium. There particularly seem to be expectations that the development of a new kind of quantum mechanics could make it possible to describe both matter and consciousness in one frame of reference (“dual aspect approach”). These ideas are often results of brilliant intuitive visions but as yet not able to produce testable hypotheses. Maybe “wave mechanics” is not very suitable in the study of consciousness from the quantum mechanical point of view. The aim of this article is to show how both the matter and the mind systems can be described with one coherent mathematical model if we assume both space and time to be discrete. 相似文献