Adaptive Anchoring Model: How Static and Dynamic Presentations of Time Series Influence Judgments and Predictions

When attempting to predict future events, people commonly rely on historical data. One psychological characteristic of judgmental forecasting of time series, established by research, is that when people make forecasts from series, they tend to underestimate future values for upward trends and overestimate them for downward ones, so‐called trend‐damping (modeled by anchoring on, and insufficient adjustment from, the average of recent time series values). Events in a time series can be experienced sequentially (dynamic mode), or they can also be retrospectively viewed simultaneously (static mode), not experienced individually in real time. In one experiment, we studied the influence of presentation mode (dynamic and static) on two sorts of judgment: (a) predictions of the next event (forecast) and (b) estimation of the average value of all the events in the presented series (average estimation). Participants' responses in dynamic mode were anchored on more recent events than in static mode for all types of judgment but with different consequences; hence, dynamic presentation improved prediction accuracy, but not estimation. These results are not anticipated by existing theoretical accounts; we develop and present an agent‐based model—the adaptive anchoring model (ADAM)—to account for the difference between processing sequences of dynamically and statically presented stimuli (visually presented data). ADAM captures how variation in presentation mode produces variation in responses (and the accuracy of these responses) in both forecasting and judgment tasks. ADAM's model predictions for the forecasting and judgment tasks fit better with the response data than a linear‐regression time series model. Moreover, ADAM outperformed autoregressive‐integrated‐moving‐average (ARIMA) and exponential‐smoothing models, while neither of these models accounts for people's responses on the average estimation task.     

Gathering Diverse Perspectives to Tackle “Wicked Problems”: Racial/Ethnic Disproportionality in Educational Placement

Among students receiving behavioral health and special education services, racial/ethnic minority students are consistently overrepresented in settings separate from general classrooms. Once separated, many young people struggle to improve academically and face significant difficulty upon trying to return to a general education setting. Given the complex, ongoing, and multifaceted nature of this challenge, racial/ethnic disproportionality can be identified as a “wicked problem,” for which solutions are not easily identified. Here, we describe our community-engaged research efforts, eliciting perspectives from relevant partners in an ongoing dialogue, to better integrate diverse stakeholders’ perspectives when attempting to address such disparities. We conducted focus groups and qualitative interviews with members of three stakeholder groups: community-serving organizations, individuals with lived experience of behavioral health conditions, and state-level policymakers, with a shared interest in addressing racial and ethnic disparities. Participant responses illustrated the “wickedness” of this problem and highlighted the need for additional supports for students, families, and school personnel, increased collaboration across relevant systems and agencies, and reduced barriers related to funding. Overall, this methodology bridged differing perspectives to develop, in concert with our partners, a shared language of the problem and a core set of issues to consider when seeking to effect change.     

How,and for whom,will activity patterns be modified by self-driving cars? Expectations from the state of Georgia

Many studies have explored travelers’ perceptions of self-driving cars (or autonomous vehicles, AVs) and their potential impacts. However, medium-term modifications in activity patterns (such as increasing trip frequencies and changing destinations) have been less explored. Using 2017–2018 survey data collected in the US state of Georgia, this paper (1) measures (at a general level) how people expect their activity patterns to change in a hypothetical all-AV era; (2) identifies population segments having similar profiles of expected changes; and (3) further profiles each segment on the basis of attitudinal, sociodemographic, and geographic characteristics. In the survey, respondents were asked to express their expectations regarding 16 potential activity modifications induced by AVs. We first conducted an exploratory factor analysis (EFA) to reduce the dimensionality of the activity-change vector characterizing each individual, and estimated non-mean-centered (NMC) factor scores (which have been rarely used in applied psychology). The EFA solution identified four dimensions of activity change: distance, time flexibility, frequency, and long distance/leisure. Next, we clustered Georgians with respect to these four-dimensional expectation vectors. The cluster solution uncovered six segments: no change, change unlikely, more leisure/long distance, longer trips, more travel, and time flexibility & more leisure/long distance. Using NMC factor scores identified considerably more inertia with respect to expectations for change than would have been apparent from the usual mean-centered scores. Finally, the various segments exhibit distinctive demographics and general attitudes. For example, those in the more leisure/long distance cluster tend to be higher income and are more likely to be Atlanta-region residents compared to other clusters, while those in the no change and change unlikely clusters tend to be older and are more likely to be rural residents.     

Contributions of Behavioral Systems Science to Leadership for a New Progressive Movement

We argue in this paper that we are in the midst of a period in which fundamental global change will be required if societies and many species, perhaps even our own, are to survive. The realities are inescapable, and the potential implications are likely to affect nearly every dimension of human life in the USA and globally. Current trends are discouraging and will be extraordinarily difficult to shift, given global structural realities. It is hard to imagine a time when effective leadership is more necessary or will be more challenging. Our thesis here is that behavioral systems science can contribute in meaningful ways to shaping and sustaining such leadership, leadership required to advance a new progressive movement.     

Mix or Match? Consumer Spending Decisions in Conditional Promotions

Conditional multi‐item promotions are a prevalent marketing tactic whereby consumers have to buy a certain number of products to get a discount. This paper examines how framing a multi‐item promotion in terms of savings on multiple items versus a single item (e.g., “buy two, get X% off on both” vs. “buy two, get 2X% off on the cheaper item”) affects consumers’ decision‐making and product choices. Two laboratory studies and a field study at a boutique clothing store demonstrate that the “2X% on cheaper” framing makes consumers more likely to select similarly priced primary and secondary items. This strategy is driven by increased focus on promotional savings under the “2X% on cheaper” framing, which leads consumers to spend more on their secondary items. Overall, this research shows how a subtle change in the framing of multi‐item promotions changes consumers’ product selection strategies and shopping basket composition.     

Exercise schema and motivational regulation of college students: A person-centered analysis

To further understand the complex psychological processes involved with motivating health behavior, we sought to examine how one's exercise schema may align with self-determined exercise motivation regulations. Few studies have examined patterns of motivation regulations that may be associated with exercise schema in order to better identify unique motivation-based profiles. We conducted a latent profile analysis on responses from 427 college-aged adults to an exercise self-schema measure (schema identification and schema strength) and five exercise regulation subscales (external, introjected, identified, integrated, intrinsic). A three-class latent profile model fit this data best considering both the fit indices and theoretical implications and confirmed previous research grouping individuals into pre-exerciser schematics, aschematics, and exerciser schematics. However, the model also captured individuals that would have been unclassifiable in the original scoring analysis. Future research may examine the stability of these profiles and methods to better understand schema-regulation profiles and exercise behavior.     

How are social-emotional and behavioral competences and problems at age 1 year associated with infant motor development? A general population study

Based on limitations in previous research evidence, we concluded that more research is needed for deeper understanding of how social-emotional and behavioral (SEB) outcomes among infant-toddler-aged children in the general population are associated with early motor development. In this study, we investigated associations between early competencies and problems, as measured by the Brief Infant-Toddler Social and Emotional Assessment (BITSEA), and the timing of achievement of the main gross and fine motor milestones usually attained during the first year of life in a general population context. The study sample consisted of 515 infants (mean age 12.9 [SD 0.9] months) and their parents (514 mothers, 434 fathers), who were recruited in child health centers in Northern Finland. The infants were divided into two groups, based on their BITSEA screen status, and motor milestone achievement ages were compared across BITSEA screen status No Concern and Of-Concern infants. An Of-Concern screen status on the maternal and paternal Competence scale and Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) item cluster was associated with later infant achievement ages for gross motor milestones. By contrast, infants who were screened to be in the Of-Concern range on the maternal Problem scale achieved gross motor milestones earlier than infants with the corresponding No Concern screen status. No significant associations were found between the paternal Problem scale screen status and infant motor development. In further analyses, the strongest associations were found between an Of-Concern screen status on the paternal Competence scale and ASD item cluster and infant motor development. The findings indicate that the inclusion of infant motor developmental information may assist early identification and the clinical interpretation of parental reports of early SEB problems. Clinical implications of the current findings are discussed in the paper.     

Exploring predictors of change in behavioral problems over a 1-year period in preterm born preschoolers

ObjectiveAlthough predictors of the prevalence of behavioral problems in preterm-born children have been frequently studied, predictors of behavioral change in these children remain unknown. Therefore, in this study we explore predictors of short-term changes in problem behavior in preterm-born preschoolers, an age period characterized by rapid behavioral change.MethodTwo- to 5-year-old children born with a gestational age <32 weeks and/or birth weight <1500 g were eligible, because of their high risk for behavioral problems. Following screening, 59 children with a t-score ≥60 on either the internal, external or total problem scale of the Child Behavior Checklist were included in the study. Linear mixed modeling was used to investigate predictors of change in behavior over a 1-year period.ResultsHigher levels of parenting stress, parent perceived child vulnerability, and parental hostility towards the child and lower educational levels of the mother significantly predicted increases in externalizing behavior. The higher the age of the child, the more internalizing problems decreased.ConclusionsParenting stress, parent perceived child vulnerability and parental hostility towards the child were the only modifiable predictors of increases in externalizing behavior, whilst no modifiable predictors of internalizing behavior were found. There may be a reciprocal interaction between stress in parents and child externalizing problems. Furthermore, stress and worries may directly influence parents’ reports on behavioral measures, because it could cause them to be concerned by behavior otherwise perceived as normal. Therefore, future interventions for parents of preterm-born children should primarily address parental stress and concerns regarding their child.