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21.
In a series of three behavioral experiments, we found a systematic distortion of probability judgments concerning elementary visual stimuli. Participants were briefly shown a set of figures that had two features (e.g., a geometric shape and a color) with two possible values each (e.g., triangle or circle and black or white). A figure was then drawn, and participants were informed about the value of one of its features (e.g., that the figure was a “circle”) and had to predict the value of the other feature (e.g., whether the figure was “black” or “white”). We repeated this procedure for various sets of figures and, by varying the statistical association between features in the sets, we manipulated the probability of a feature given the evidence of another (e.g., the posterior probability of hypothesis “black” given the evidence “circle”) as well as the support provided by a feature to another (e.g., the impact, or confirmation, of evidence “circle” on the hypothesis “black”). Results indicated that participants’ judgments were deeply affected by impact, although they only should have depended on the probability distributions over the features, and that the dissociation between evidential impact and posterior probability increased the number of errors. The implications of these findings for lower and higher level cognitive models are discussed. 相似文献
22.
“Semi-controlled” crosswalks are unsignalized, but have clear pavement markings and “yield to pedestrian” signs. At these locations, pedestrians and motorists frequently interact to determine who should proceed first. When interacting with drivers, pedestrian crossing decisions are complex events that involve a variety of human responses, as well as vehicle dynamics, traffic characteristics, and environmental conditions. In addition, these complexities can be subject to temporal effects. Without considering temporal variations in pedestrian-motorist interaction, statistical methods could lead to biased coefficient estimates and inaccurate conclusions.The study developed a Bayesian multilevel logistic regression (BMLR) model to capture heterogeneities in pedestrian interaction behavior during four different time periods. The proposed method incorporates time-specific effects that vary randomly between time-periods based on a weakly informative prior. The results indicate significant factors, some of which confirm previous research and some that are new ways to explain pedestrian behavior at the individual level. The identification of variables such as FlowOn and FlowWait sheds light on the interactions between pedestrians – providing more information than the single GroupSize measure.Some consequent safety implications are discussed from the perspectives of vehicle dynamics, vehicle flow rate and pedestrian volume. The more detailed metrics developed in this paper will provide a valuable starting point. for the design of crosswalk controls that will foster a higher degree of compliance and less delay. 相似文献
23.
Physical exercise is an effective tool for improving public health, but the general population exercises too little. Drawing on recent theorizing on the combined role of boredom and self-control in guiding goal-directed behavior, we test the hypothesis that individual differences in boredom and self-control differentiate high from low exercisers. The role of boredom as a non-adaptive disposition is of particular interest, because research on boredom in sports is scarce. Here, we investigate the role of such individual differences in self-reported weekly exercise behavior (in minutes) in a sample of N = 507 participants (n = 200 female, Mage = 36.43 (±9.54)). We used the robust variant of Mahalanobis distance to detect and remove n = 51 multivariate outliers and then performed latent profile analysis to assess if boredom (boredom proneness; exercise-related boredom) and self-control (trait self-control; if-then planning) combine into identifiable latent profiles. In line with theoretical considerations, the Bayesian Information Criterion favored a solution with two latent profiles. One profile was characterized by higher-than-average exercise-related boredom and boredom proneness and lower-than-average self-control and if-then planning values. This pattern was reversed for the second profile. A one-sided Bayesian two-sample t-test supported the hypothesis that the first profile is associated with less exercise behavior than the second profile, BF = 16.93. Our results foster the notion of self-control and if-then planning as adaptive dispositions. More importantly, they point to an important role of boredom in the exercise setting: exercise-related boredom and getting easily bored in general are associated with less exercise activity. This is in line with recent theorizing on boredoms' and self-controls’ function in guiding goal-directed behavior. 相似文献
24.
During professional shooting tournaments, which typically last multiple hours, athletes must stay focused at all times in order to perform at their highest levels. Sustaining attention over extended periods of time relies on self-control. Crucially, perceived state self-control strength appears to wane as a function of task duration, which ultimately can impair shooting performance. In the present study, we tested the assumption that the level of self-reported self-control strength decreases over the course of a 1-h shooting task measured twice during a regular training day and separated by a 2-h break. Additionally, we assumed that shooting performance would be linked with fluctuations in self-control. A total of 21 shooters (14 elite and 7 sub-elite) took part in this study and were asked to perform a series of 10 shots at a standardized target, five times in the morning and five times in the afternoon (i.e., 100 shots total). The participants also reported their perceived state self-control strength at the baseline (prior to the start of the morning session as well as the afternoon session) and after a series of 10 shots each in the morning and afternoon (i.e., 12 measurements in total). In line with our hypotheses, we observed that perceived state self-control diminished with the number of shots performed, and that perceived state self-control could explain shooting performance. Additionally, these observations could explain the difference in shooting performance between elite and sub-elite athletes. The results suggest that the perception of self-control strength is highly important for optimal shooting performance. Practical implications are discussed. 相似文献
25.
Seeing oneself as a physically active person is one of the strongest predictors of physical activity behaviour and self-regulatory strategies. Determining whether and how physical activity self-perceptions can be stimulated may help low-active individuals who do not see themselves as a physically active person become more active. Cross-sectional research has tested the Physical Activity Self-Definition (PASD) model among active samples; longitudinal studies among low-active adults have yet to be done. The purpose of this study was to test the predictive power of the PASD model among low-active adults over a 16-week physical activity intervention. Participants completed surveys of validated questionnaires in-person at baseline (pre-intervention) and at 16-weeks (end of intervention) at one of two primary care facilities. The final sample included 119 low-active adults. Partial least squares-structural equation modeling indicated that the original model had small-medium predictive power (Q2 = 0.22; SRMR = 0.13 [0.05, 0.07]; RMSE = 1.13; MAE = 0.9; BIC = 1348.40). Two paths were added in the revised model (perceived wanting—PASD; perceived ability—perceived commitment), which explained an additional 4% and 5% of the variance in perceived commitment (R2 = 0.62 [0.48, 0.72]) and PASD (R2 = 0.74 [0.64, 0.80]; all p’s < 0.001), respectively. The revised model had medium predictive power (Q2 = 0.25; SRMR = 0.11 [0.05, 0.06]; RMSE = 1.1; MAE = 0.87; BIC = 1332.84) All path coefficients remained positive and significant at p ≤ .001. Among low-active adults, perceived wanting and perceived ability may be more salient when engaging in physical activity and regarding themselves as a physically active person. Findings may support practitioners and health care professionals in designing physical activity interventions to foster PASD among low-active adult populations. 相似文献
26.
标准化估计对模型的解释和效应大小的比较有重要作用。虽然潜变量交互效应的恰当标准化估计公式已经面世超过10年, 国内外都在使用和引用, 但至今未见到关于不同估计方法得到的恰当标准化估计的系统比较。通过模拟实验, 比较了乘积指标法、潜调节结构方程(LMS)、无先验信息和有先验信息的贝叶斯法的潜变量交互效应标准化估计在不同条件下的表现。结果发现, 在正态条件下, LMS和有信息贝叶斯法表现较好; 而在非正态条件下, 乘积指标法比较稳健, 但需要较大的样本(不小于500), 小样本且外生潜变量之间相关很低时可使用无信息贝叶斯法。 相似文献
27.
多级属性是将诊断测验中传统的二值(即两种水平, 通常定义为0和1)属性定义为多值(多个水平可以为0, 1, …), 它不但可以描述学生对于知识属性是否掌握, 而且可以描述学生在属性上的掌握程度, 这样使得诊断测验能提供给被试更丰富的知识掌握详情。本文将适用于二级属性Q矩阵的统计量(S统计量)拓展到多级属性下的Q矩阵验证和估计, 在两种常见的条件下, 设计了两种估计算法：联合估计算法和在线估计算法。模拟实验结果表明：联合估计算法适用于对专家界定的初始Q矩阵进行验证, 当初始Q矩阵中包含较少的错误时, 通过联合估计算法有很大可能恢复正确的Q矩阵; 在线估计算法适用于对“新项目”进行属性向量和项目参数的在线标定, 基于一定数量的“基础项目”, 在线估计算法对于新项目的估计也能达到较满意的成功率。实证数据分析则进一步展示了该方法的使用。 相似文献
28.
Shawn P. Gilroy Donald A. Hantula 《Journal of the experimental analysis of behavior》2018,109(2):433-449
A novel method for analyzing delay discounting data is proposed. This newer metric, a model‐based Area Under Curve (AUC) combining approximate Bayesian model selection and numerical integration, was compared to the point‐based AUC methods developed by Myerson, Green, and Warusawitharana (2001) and extended by Borges, Kuang, Milhorn, and Yi (2016). Using data from computer simulation and a published study, comparisons of these methods indicated that a model‐based form of AUC offered a more consistent and statistically robust measurement of area than provided by using point‐based methods alone. Beyond providing a form of AUC directly from a discounting model, numerical integration methods permitted a general calculation in cases when the Effective Delay 50 (ED50) measure could not be calculated. This allowed discounting model selection to proceed in conditions where data are traditionally more challenging to model and measure, a situation where point‐based AUC methods are often enlisted. Results from simulation and existing data indicated that numerical integration methods extended both the area‐based interpretation of delay discounting as well as the discounting model selection approach. Limitations of point‐based AUC as a first‐line analysis of discounting and additional extensions of discounting model selection were also discussed. 相似文献
29.
Don Li Michael J. Hautus Douglas Elliffe 《Journal of the experimental analysis of behavior》2018,109(3):451-474
Models that generate event records have very general scope regarding the dimensions of the target behavior that we measure. From a set of predicted event records, we can generate predictions for any dependent variable that we could compute from the event records of our subjects. In this sense, models that generate event records permit us a freely multivariate analysis. To explore this proposition, we conducted a multivariate examination of Catania's Operant Reserve on single VI schedules in transition using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme for Approximate Bayesian Computation. Although we found systematic deviations between our implementation of Catania's Operant Reserve and our observed data (e.g., mismatches in the shape of the interresponse time distributions), the general approach that we have demonstrated represents an avenue for modelling behavior that transcends the typical constraints of algebraic models. 相似文献
30.
Oliver Lüdtke Alexander Robitzsch Ulrich Trautwein 《Multivariate behavioral research》2018,53(1):102-124
The Social Relations Model (SRM) is a conceptual and analytical approach to examining dyadic behaviors and interpersonal perceptions within groups. In an SRM, the perceiver effect describes a person's tendency to perceive other group members in a certain way, whereas the target effect measures the tendency to be perceived by others in certain ways. In SRM research, it is often of interest to relate these individual SRM effects to covariates. However, the estimated individual SRM effects might not provide a very reliable measure of the true, unobserved SRM effects, resulting in distorted estimates of associations with other variables. This article introduces a plausible values approach that allows users to correct for measurement error when assessing the association of individual SRM effects with other individual difference variables. In the plausible values approach, the latent, true individual SRM effects are treated as missing values and are imputed from an imputation model by applying Bayesian estimation techniques. In a simulation study, the statistical properties of the plausible values approach are compared with two approaches that have been used in previous research. A data example from educational psychology is presented to illustrate how the plausible values approach can be implemented with the software WinBUGS. 相似文献