不同概率表征的贝叶斯推理试题形式结构的同质性研究

研究从先验概率、概率表征、推理任务等方面探讨了经典贝叶斯推理研究中存在的不足,试图在＂知识和试题双重模型＂框架下,探索现实和标准贝叶斯试题的形式结构的同质性,结果表明：1）自然频次表征比百分比表征的贝叶斯推算题正确率高,这是因为试题的形式结构不同,与概率表征无关;2）贝叶斯判断题与贝叶斯推算题的试题形式结构存在显著差异;3）贝叶斯推算题中,概率词表征与其它两种表征的试题形式结构存在显著差异,其实质是贝叶斯判断。     

对归纳推理贝叶斯模型的检验

作者用实验比较检验特征归纳的贝叶斯模型、关联相似性模型、基于特征的归纳推理模型和相似性覆盖模型这四种模型。以大学生为被试的实验结果表明：1）在强关联强度一致时,被试的归纳推理基本符合贝叶斯模型和关联相似性模型的预测,在弱关联强度一致时,不符合这四种模型预测;2）在关联强度不一致时,关联强度效应不符合贝叶斯模型的预测;3）在关联强度一致时,贝叶斯模型和关联相似性模型的预测结果是一致的,不能区分两个模型。实验结果较多地支持贝叶斯模型和关联相似性模型。     

Global Model Analysis of Cognitive Variability

Residual fluctuations produced in typical experimental methodologies are examined as correlated noises. The effective range of the correlations was assessed by determining whether the decay over look-back time is better described as a power law or exponential. Both of these decay laws contain free parameters and it is argued that it is not possible to distinguish their models on the basis of simple measures of goodness-of-fit. Global analyses that evaluate models on the basis of how well they generalize are conducted. The models are examined in terms of three constructs that all bear on generalization: cross-validity, flexibility, and representativeness. Quantitative assessment of a large ensemble of data suggests that the correlations decay over time as a power law. The conclusion is that human residual fluctuation is a correlated fractal.     

A Bayesian Nonparametric Approach to Test Equating

A Bayesian nonparametric model is introduced for score equating. It is applicable to all major equating designs, and has advantages over previous equating models. Unlike the previous models, the Bayesian model accounts for positive dependence between distributions of scores from two tests. The Bayesian model and the previous equating models are compared through the analysis of data sets famous in the equating literature. Also, the classical percentile-rank, linear, and mean equating models are each proven to be a special case of a Bayesian model under a highly-informative choice of prior distribution.     

A causal model theory of the meaning of cause, enable, and prevent

The verbs cause , enable , and prevent express beliefs about the way the world works. We offer a theory of their meaning in terms of the structure of those beliefs expressed using qualitative properties of causal models, a graphical framework for representing causal structure. We propose that these verbs refer to a causal model relevant to a discourse and that "A causes B" expresses the belief that the causal model includes a link from A to B. "A enables/allows B" entails that the model includes a link from A to B, that A represents a category of events necessary for B, and that an alternative cause of B exists. "A prevents B" entails that the model includes a link from A to B and that A reduces the likelihood of B. This theory is able to account for the results of four experiments as well as a variety of existing data on human reasoning.     

Bayesian journey-to-crime modelling of single and multiple crime-type series in Baltimore County,MD

This study tested different Bayesian Journey-to-Crime (JTC) models on a sample group of 850 serial offenders apprehended in Baltimore County, MD from 1993 to 1997. In this research, Bayesian JTC models were being used to predict the home locations of the offenders. The sample group data included 133 assaults, 90 burglaries, 497 larcenies, 81 robberies, and 49 vehicle thefts. The main question this research aimed to answer was whether the addition of crimes of a different type to an existing crime series of a single type would result in more accurate and/or precise Bayesian JTC models. The standard practice by law enforcement has been to consider the same-type crime series only when modelling the anchor point of the offender. Similarly, in research, geographic profiles have been constructed exclusively with the same-type crime series. The results of this study clearly indicated that the inclusion of crimes of a different type into a single crime-type series will result in significantly more accurate and more precise Bayesian JTC models. In contrast, crime series with predominantly assault and burglary showed results that were inconclusive or indicated no significant differences. These results should encourage law enforcement agencies to re-evaluate their standard practice of constructing geographic profiles with only the same-type crime series. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A bayesian approach to confirmatory factor analysis

Confirmatory factor analysis is considered from a Bayesian viewpoint, in which prior information on parameter is incorporated in the analysis. An iterative algorithm is developed to obtain the Bayes estimates. A numerical example based on longitudinal data is presented. A simulation study is designed to compare the Bayesian approach with the maximum likelihood method.Computer facilities were provided by the Computer Services Center, The Chinese University of Hong Kong.     

数量对时间知觉的影响-来自抽象数量和实际数量的证据

本研究采用抽象数量和实际数量叠加的方式呈现刺激,进一步探讨数量对时间知觉的影响。两个实验都运用时间的系列比较任务,以抽象数量和实际数量这两种数量的一致和不一致为条件,将阿拉伯数字和其字体大小叠加及阿拉伯数字和其呈现个数叠加的方式系列呈现在屏幕中央,要求被试比较判断刺激呈现的时间长短。结果显示被试均依靠实际数量的大小判断时间长短,而似乎忽略了抽象数量的存在。这一结果表明实际数量对时间知觉的影响要比抽象数量大,支持并扩展了数量理论。     

CAT选题策略分类概述

选题是计算机化自适应测验（CAT）测试过程的关键环节,选题策略的目标是要达到较高的测量精度,同时也实现试题曝光率控制及其他测验目标的实现.本文根据选题策略的基本原理和衍生发展,将众多CAT选题策略分为五大选题策略系列：Fisher函数系列、K-LI函数系列、α分层系列、贝叶斯系列、b匹配系列;并根据测验目标（测验精度、试题曝光率控制、内容平衡、多条件约束）对这些选题策略进行了细分,并对CAT选题策略的选择思路进行归纳.     

Is Disgust Prepared? A Preliminary Examination in Young Children

Children may be prepared to associate adult disgust reactions with adult disgust elicitors. To test this, three-year olds (and adults) were presented with two images and an emotive vocalization. The images and vocalizations included stimuli adults found disgusting, fear-provoking, and sad. On one set of trials, the main dependent variable (DV) was time spent looking at each image and on a second set of repeat trials the DV was knowledge of image-sound matches. Fear and disgust vocalizations were both more effective at orienting a child's attention to adult fear and disgust images, than sad vocalizations. Parental disgust sensitivity was associated with this effect, moderated by explicit matching knowledge. Matching knowledge was poor in children and good in adults. These data suggest that in children, fear and disgust vocalizations may both promote attention to stimuli that adults find disgusting and/or fear-provoking, suggesting that “preparedness” may not be wholly emotion-specific.