Estimation of the Coefficient of Variation with Minimum Risk: A Sequential Method for Minimizing Sampling Error and Study Cost

The coefficient of variation is an effect size measure with many potential uses in psychology and related disciplines. We propose a general theory for a sequential estimation of the population coefficient of variation that considers both the sampling error and the study cost, importantly without specific distributional assumptions. Fixed sample size planning methods, commonly used in psychology and related fields, cannot simultaneously minimize both the sampling error and the study cost. The sequential procedure we develop is the first sequential sampling procedure developed for estimating the coefficient of variation. We first present a method of planning a pilot sample size after the research goals are specified by the researcher. Then, after collecting a sample size as large as the estimated pilot sample size, a check is performed to assess whether the conditions necessary to stop the data collection have been satisfied. If not an additional observation is collected and the check is performed again. This process continues, sequentially, until a stopping rule involving a risk function is satisfied. Our method ensures that the sampling error and the study costs are considered simultaneously so that the cost is not higher than necessary for the tolerable sampling error. We also demonstrate a variety of properties of the distribution of the final sample size for five different distributions under a variety of conditions with a Monte Carlo simulation study. In addition, we provide freely available functions via the MBESS package in R to implement the methods discussed.     

Temporal dynamics of need satisfaction and need frustration. Two sides of the same coin?

We study the dynamics of need satisfaction and need frustration by examining how need satisfaction and need frustration change over time and how these changes relate to changes in motivation. To investigate this, volunteers were assessed daily during a delineated activity, resulting in a total sample of 77 volunteers and 467 completed daily diaries. Bayesian confirmatory factor analysis on the within-person level confirmed a bifactor solution: autonomy, competence, and relatedness were distinguished by three specific factors, but the majority of variance was explained by two strongly correlated (need satisfaction and need frustration) factors. The strong correlation between need satisfaction and need frustration further translated in the development of their relationship over time. That is, Bayesian latent growth curve modelling revealed a simultaneous, yet opposite, growth curve. Contrary to our expectations, neither of them could be related to behavioural internalization or externalization. These results imply that, at the within-person level, momentary need satisfaction and frustration are difficult to distinguish, and affecting one may automatically affect the other. Also, the relationships within the self-determination framework, such as the proposed link between need satisfaction and behavioural internalization may be better reframed with attention to the time-frame in which they occur.     

Counterfactual thinking as an issue between language and pretend play / El pensamiento contrafactual como un problema entre el lenguaje y el juego de simulación

Discussions on counterfactual thinking (CT) have been focused on whether it is a language skill or it emerges spontaneously before language acquisition. This paper surveys the most compelling arguments regarding these frameworks: (1) the approach ‘CT as a language skill’; (2) those who claim that pretending shows that children have CT; (3) those who consider pretend play is a rehearsal for cognitive dispositions. I shall point out that the three approaches on CT are incomplete: (1) neglects pretend play (which prelinguistic children perform) as an instantiation of the CT; (2) puts too much emphasis on the linguistic dimension of pretense; (3) is highly demanding on the cognitive architecture that we ought to have by nature — the so-called children as scientists.     

Leaping to Conclusions: Why Premise Relevance Affects Argument Strength

Everyday reasoning requires more evidence than raw data alone can provide. We explore the idea that people can go beyond this data by reasoning about how the data was sampled. This idea is investigated through an examination of premise non‐monotonicity, in which adding premises to a category‐based argument weakens rather than strengthens it. Relevance theories explain this phenomenon in terms of people's sensitivity to the relationships among premise items. We show that a Bayesian model of category‐based induction taking premise sampling assumptions and category similarity into account complements such theories and yields two important predictions: First, that sensitivity to premise relationships can be violated by inducing a weak sampling assumption; and second, that premise monotonicity should be restored as a result. We test these predictions with an experiment that manipulates people's assumptions in this regard, showing that people draw qualitatively different conclusions in each case.     

无均值结构的潜变量交互效应模型的标准化估计

潜变量交互效应建模研究近年来有两项重要进展, 一是提出了潜变量交互效应模型的标准化估计及其计算公式; 二是发现无均值结构模型可以取代传统的有均值结构模型, 建模大为简化。但标准化估计是在传统的有均值结构模型中建立的, 在简化的模型中同样适用吗？本文在无均值结构模型的框架内, 给出了潜变量交互效应模型的标准化形式、计算公式和建模步骤, 并通过模拟研究比较了极大似然和广义最小二乘两种估计方法、配对乘积指标和全部乘积指标两种指标类型, 结果表明, 在计算交互效应的标准化估计时, 应当使用配对乘积指标建模, 并且首选极大似然估计。     

Adding Types,But Not Tokens,Affects Property Induction

The extent to which we generalize a novel property from a sample of familiar instances to novel instances depends on the sample composition. Previous property induction experiments have only used samples consisting of novel types (unique entities). Because real-world evidence samples often contain redundant tokens (repetitions of the same entity), we studied the effects on property induction of adding types and tokens to an observed sample. In Experiments 1–3, we presented participants with a sample of birds or flowers known to have a novel property and probed whether this property generalized to novel items varying in similarity to the initial sample. Increasing the number of novel types (e.g., new birds with the target property) in a sample produced tightening, promoting property generalization to highly similar stimuli but decreasing generalization to less similar stimuli. On the other hand, increasing the number of tokens (e.g., repeated presentations of the same bird with the target property) had little effect on generalization. Experiment 4 showed that repeated tokens are encoded and can benefit recognition, but appear to be given little weight when inferring property generalization. We modified an existing Bayesian model of induction (Navarro, Dry, & Lee, 2012) to account for both the information added by new types and the discounting of information conveyed by tokens.     

A latent topic model with Markov transition for process data

We propose a latent topic model with a Markov transition for process data, which consists of time-stamped events recorded in a log file. Such data are becoming more widely available in computer-based educational assessment with complex problem-solving items. The proposed model can be viewed as an extension of the hierarchical Bayesian topic model with a hidden Markov structure to accommodate the underlying evolution of an examinee's latent state. Using topic transition probabilities along with response times enables us to capture examinees' learning trajectories, making clustering/classification more efficient. A forward-backward variational expectation-maximization (FB-VEM) algorithm is developed to tackle the challenging computational problem. Useful theoretical properties are established under certain asymptotic regimes. The proposed method is applied to a complex problem-solving item in the 2012 version of the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA).     

Composite Deep Belief Network approach for enhanced Antepartum foetal electrocardiogram signal

Antepartum Foetal surveillance is the most vital epoch of investigation during the pregnancy period. This surveillance would provide an opening to plan and manage the Foetus during Intrapartum and Antepartum stages of pregnancy. Moreover, it will help to identify high risk Foetuses during pregnancies which are complicated by maternal health conditions like diabetes mellitus, intrauterine growth restriction, etc. The foetal electrocardiogram (fECG) signal can be detected in the course of pregnancy from the Antepartum stage. Generally, fECG signal analysis is not carried out for Foetal surveillance. Rather, the traditional methodologies like phonocardiogram, etc. are being utilized. The reason is the unavailability of an effective methodology for providing good quality fECG signal. The proposal of a hybrid tactic called Bayesian Deep Belief Network (BDBN) for fECG signal enhancement is presented in this article. The proposed BDBN technique involves Baye’s filtering methodology in amalgamation with Deep Belief Network. The Baye’s filtering was employed to eliminate undesired signal components. Deep learning (DL) technique was utilized with Deep belief network (DBN) to extract high quality fECG signal. The methodology resulted with good quality fECG signal which is indeed valuable for timely Physician analysis.