Heuristics versus direct calculation,and age-related differences in multiplication: an evidence accumulation account of plausibility decisions in arithmetic

We offer a new theoretical angle for cognitive arithmetic, which is that evidence accumulation may play a role in problem plausibility decisions. We build upon previous studies that have considered such a hypothesis, and here formally evaluate the paradigm. We develop the finding that performance differences, due to variations in strategy use and aging effects, can indeed be reasonably explained through these accumulation-to-bound cognitive models. Results suggest that these models may be effectively used to learn more about the underlying cognitive processes. In this study, we modelled young (18–24) and older (68–82) adults’ solution times in performing arithmetic verification (e.g. whether 8?×?5?=?41 is true/false). The domain-relevant factors in strategy use (problem-verification heuristics) and aging differences (older/younger adult groups) were analyzed by a response process model of the latency data, that is fit by participant and item. Lower thresholds accounted for the faster response times (RTs) for problems solved with heuristics (arithmetic rule-violation checking strategies), as opposed to problems solved by calculation approaches. A more rapid accumulation accounted for faster RTs on problems in which two arithmetic rules were violated (strategy combination) rather than one. Third, higher thresholds (i.e. preferring to have greater certainty before responding) accounted for older adults’ slower speed. These findings are in support of accumulation models being relevant for more complex cognitive tasks, as well as to account for the age-related differences therein.     

A comparison of positive vicarious learning and verbal information for reducing vicariously learned fear

Research with children has demonstrated that both positive vicarious learning (modelling) and positive verbal information can reduce children's acquired fear responses for a particular stimulus. However, this fear reduction appears to be more effective when the intervention pathway matches the initial fear learning pathway. That is, positive verbal information is a more effective intervention than positive modelling when fear is originally acquired via negative verbal information. Research has yet to explore whether fear reduction pathways are also important for fears acquired via vicarious learning. To test this, an experiment compared the effectiveness of positive verbal information and positive vicarious learning interventions for reducing vicariously acquired fears in children (7–9 years). Both vicarious and informational fear reduction interventions were found to be equally effective at reducing vicariously acquired fears, suggesting that acquisition and intervention pathways do not need to match for successful fear reduction. This has significant implications for parents and those working with children because it suggests that providing children with positive information or positive vicarious learning immediately after a negative modelling event may prevent more serious fears developing.     

Discounting model selection with area‐based measures: A case for numerical integration

A novel method for analyzing delay discounting data is proposed. This newer metric, a model‐based Area Under Curve (AUC) combining approximate Bayesian model selection and numerical integration, was compared to the point‐based AUC methods developed by Myerson, Green, and Warusawitharana (2001) and extended by Borges, Kuang, Milhorn, and Yi (2016). Using data from computer simulation and a published study, comparisons of these methods indicated that a model‐based form of AUC offered a more consistent and statistically robust measurement of area than provided by using point‐based methods alone. Beyond providing a form of AUC directly from a discounting model, numerical integration methods permitted a general calculation in cases when the Effective Delay 50 (ED50) measure could not be calculated. This allowed discounting model selection to proceed in conditions where data are traditionally more challenging to model and measure, a situation where point‐based AUC methods are often enlisted. Results from simulation and existing data indicated that numerical integration methods extended both the area‐based interpretation of delay discounting as well as the discounting model selection approach. Limitations of point‐based AUC as a first‐line analysis of discounting and additional extensions of discounting model selection were also discussed.     

The natural mathematics of behavior analysis

Models that generate event records have very general scope regarding the dimensions of the target behavior that we measure. From a set of predicted event records, we can generate predictions for any dependent variable that we could compute from the event records of our subjects. In this sense, models that generate event records permit us a freely multivariate analysis. To explore this proposition, we conducted a multivariate examination of Catania's Operant Reserve on single VI schedules in transition using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme for Approximate Bayesian Computation. Although we found systematic deviations between our implementation of Catania's Operant Reserve and our observed data (e.g., mismatches in the shape of the interresponse time distributions), the general approach that we have demonstrated represents an avenue for modelling behavior that transcends the typical constraints of algebraic models.     

Integrating Covariates into Social Relations Models: A Plausible Values Approach for Handling Measurement Error in Perceiver and Target Effects

The Social Relations Model (SRM) is a conceptual and analytical approach to examining dyadic behaviors and interpersonal perceptions within groups. In an SRM, the perceiver effect describes a person's tendency to perceive other group members in a certain way, whereas the target effect measures the tendency to be perceived by others in certain ways. In SRM research, it is often of interest to relate these individual SRM effects to covariates. However, the estimated individual SRM effects might not provide a very reliable measure of the true, unobserved SRM effects, resulting in distorted estimates of associations with other variables. This article introduces a plausible values approach that allows users to correct for measurement error when assessing the association of individual SRM effects with other individual difference variables. In the plausible values approach, the latent, true individual SRM effects are treated as missing values and are imputed from an imputation model by applying Bayesian estimation techniques. In a simulation study, the statistical properties of the plausible values approach are compared with two approaches that have been used in previous research. A data example from educational psychology is presented to illustrate how the plausible values approach can be implemented with the software WinBUGS.     

Doubling‐down on deprivation: Using latent profile analysis to evaluate an age‐old assumption in relative deprivation theory

Theorists have long argued that two forms of relative deprivation exist: individual‐based relative deprivation (IRD) whereby a person feels deprived relative to other individuals and group‐based relative deprivation (GRD) whereby a person feels his/her ingroup is deprived relative to other groups. Combinations of IRD and GRD are therefore assumed to produce four response profiles: (i) high on IRD and GRD (i.e. ‘doubly deprived’); (ii) high on IRD, low on GRD; (iii) low on IRD, high on GRD; or (iv) low on IRD and GRD. The existence of these profiles, however, has never been assessed. We address this oversight by using latent profile analysis to identify distinct response patterns to measures of IRD and GRD. Across two studies, we found no support for this typology, nor the oft‐assumed doubly deprived profile. Rather, response patterns showed moderate levels of IRD across discrete profiles accompanied by considerable variability in GRD.     

Non‐Bayesian Noun Generalization in 3‐ to 5‐Year‐Old Children: Probing the Role of Prior Knowledge in the Suspicious Coincidence Effect

It is unclear how children learn labels for multiple overlapping categories such as “Labrador,” “dog,” and “animal.” Xu and Tenenbaum (2007a) suggested that learners infer correct meanings with the help of Bayesian inference. They instantiated these claims in a Bayesian model, which they tested with preschoolers and adults. Here, we report data testing a developmental prediction of the Bayesian model—that more knowledge should lead to narrower category inferences when presented with multiple subordinate exemplars. Two experiments did not support this prediction. Children with more category knowledge showed broader generalization when presented with multiple subordinate exemplars, compared to less knowledgeable children and adults. This implies a U‐shaped developmental trend. The Bayesian model was not able to account for these data, even with inputs that reflected the similarity judgments of children. We discuss implications for the Bayesian model, including a combined Bayesian/morphological knowledge account that could explain the demonstrated U‐shaped trend.     

Motor imagery ability and internal representation of movement in children with probable developmental coordination disorder

It has been hypothesised that deficits in the functioning of the mirror neuron system (MNS) and internal modelling may contribute to the motor impairments associated with DCD. These processes can be explored behaviourally through motor imagery paradigms. Motor imagery proficiency of children with and without probable DCD (pDCD) was examined using a complex hand rotation task to explore whether motor imagery strategies could be used during more complex tasks. Forty-four boys aged 7–13 years participated, 22 with pDCD (mean = 9.90 years ± 1.57) and 22 controls (mean = 9.68 years ± 1.53). Participants completed the task twice: with and without motor imagery instructions. Stimuli were presented in two rotational axes – palm/back, and eight 45° rotational steps. Both groups showed evidence of following the biomechanical and postural constraints of actual movements. Responses of children with pDCD were slower and less accurate than controls, with group differences increasing alongside task complexity. A greater impact of biomechanical constraints for accuracy was observed in the DCD group. The response characteristics of children with pDCD likely reflects a reduced capacity to mentally manipulate a body schema and reduced visuo-motor processing capabilities. Behaviourally, these processes are linked to MNS and internal modelling function, suggesting deficits in these systems may contribute to the movement difficulties characteristic of DCD.     

Examining the association between psychological wellbeing with daily and intra-individual variation in subjective wellbeing

A number of studies identify distinct dimensions of psychological and subjective wellbeing. However, few investigations have examined how these distinctive wellbeing dimensions may be related over time. The present study aimed to contribute to this growing body of research by adopting a measurement burst design to examine the association between psychological functioning with daily and intra-individual variation in affect over a 14-day period, controlling for personality. Participants (N = 45) comprised a sample of Australian adults from Canberra, Australia who were observed on up to 14 days over a 2-week period (Mobs = 10.9 (SD = 3.1)). Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimates from a multi-level structural equation model identified psychological functioning as only weakly associated with daily positive affect, and unrelated to daily levels of negative affect and intra-individual variation in both affect domains when adjusting for demographic, personality and daily stressors. Positive and negative daily events were most strongly associated with positive and negative feelings, respectively. Post-hoc analysis within a Bayesian context confirmed our ML results whilst a Monte Carlo simulation identified sufficient statistical power of significant parameters. Overall, evidence for an association between psychological functioning and daily affect was not identified.     

Do Bettors Correctly Perceive Odds? Three Studies of How Bettors Interpret Betting Odds as Probabilistic Information

This paper reports on three studies investigating how accurately bettors (=people who regularly bet on sports events) interpret the probabilistic information implied by betting odds. All studies were based on data collected by web surveys prompting a total of 186 experienced bettors to convert sets of representative odds into frequency judgments. Bayesian statistical methods were used to analyze the data. From the results, the following conclusions were made: (i) On the whole, the bettors produced well‐calibrated judgments, indicating that they have realistic perceptions of odds. (ii) Bettors were unable to consciously adjust judgments for different margins. (iii) Although their interval judgments often covered the estimates implied by the odds, the bettors tended to overestimate the variation of expected profitable bets between months. The results are consistent with prior research showing that people tend to make accurate probability judgments when faced with tasks characterized by constant and clear feedback. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.