先前情绪和过度自信对灾难事件后继风险决策的影响

研究考察了先前情绪和过度自信对灾难事件后继风险决策的影响。结果发现：(1)先前情绪的主效应显著, 积极情绪比消极情绪的个体在灾后风险决策时更加倾向于风险寻求;过度自信的主效应显著, 高过度自信比低过度自信个体在灾后风险决策时更加倾向于风险寻求。(2)先前情绪和过度自信水平交互影响灾难事件后继风险决策。高过度自信者在积极情绪状态下比在消极情绪状态下更倾向于风险寻求; 消极情绪状态下过度自信水平不同的个体之间没有显著差异。     

从对框架效应的分析看风险决策的神经基础

对风险决策的研究近年来一直是微观经济学和心理学的热门,但是从传统的决策理论到主张有限理性的预期理论大多是对决策行为的研究,决策的心理机制一直是无法解释的黑箱子。令人兴奋的是近几年来神经科学家及其他领域的学者开始用先进的神经心理学的方法来研究风险决策,试图理解神经过程调节风险决策行为的方式。文章从分析违背“不变性”原则的框架效应入手,从正反框架、确定选择和风险选择、风险规避和风险寻求、高估小概率事件几个方面,全面分析风险决策可能的神经基础。在总结已有研究的基础上提出了把风险决策研究扩展到不确定决策,把风险决策中的一次决策研究扩展到多次决策的研究思路     

Does it matter whether friends,parents, or peers drink walk? Identifying which normative influences predict young pedestrian’s decisions to walk while intoxicated

Drink walking, that is walking in a public place while intoxicated, is associated with increased risk of injury and fatality. Young people and males are especially prone to engaging in this behaviour, yet little is known about the factors associated with individual’s decisions to drink walk. The present research explores the role of different normative influences (friendship group norm, parent group norm, university peer group norm) and perceived risk, within an extended theory of planned behaviour (TPB) framework, in predicting young people’s self-reported drink walking intentions. One hundred and eighteen young people (aged 17–25 years) completed a survey including sociodemographic measures and extended TPB measures related to drink walking. Overall the extended TPB explained 72.8% of the variance in young people’s intentions to drink walk in the next six months with attitude, perceived behavioural control, friendship group norm, and gender (male) emerging as significant predictors. Males, as compared with females, had higher intentions to drink walk and lower perceptions of risk regarding drink walking. Together, these findings provide a clearer indication of the salient normative influences and gender differences in young pedestrian’s decisions to walk while intoxicated. Such findings can be used to inform future interventions designed to reduce injuries and fatalities associated with drink walking.     

元认知视野中的气候变化风险研究

气候变化已经成为全球面临的最紧迫问题之一。近期研究发现,个体对于气候变化风险的元认知和其亲环境行为之间关系密切。对元认知知识、元认知来源、元认知确定性及元认知重要性四个维度相关研究的分析表明,公众元认知知识与实际知识的偏离、以分析系统为主导的风险认知来源、对气候变化后果确定性的低估以及对气候变化重要性的忽视都会抑制环境友好行为的发生,并指出了气候变化风险元认知研究的未来趋势。     

MEDIATING ROLE OF MATERNAL SENSITIVITY: ENHANCING LANGUAGE DEVELOPMENT IN AT‐RISK FAMILIES

Home‐visiting programs have gained increasing importance in family‐centered prevention and intervention. However, few studies have examined the mechanisms underlying early intervention treatment effects. The goal of this study is to analyze the mediating role of maternal sensitivity in enhancing language development with the home‐visiting program Parents as Teachers (PAT). Data were collected and analyzed within the ongoing, long‐term ZEPPELIN study, a randomized controlled trial with 251 participating at‐risk families. Via longitudinal mediation analysis, we examined whether effects of the PAT on receptive and expressive language outcomes at 24 and 36 months were mediated by maternal sensitivity at 12 months. Within a moderated mediation framework, we investigated whether the level of family psychosocial stress affects this mediation. Results showed that intervention effects on language outcomes are mediated by maternal sensitivity—weakly and through specific pathways. Moderation and moderated mediation analyses indicated that effects of the PAT and also specific mediation effects increase with the level of psychosocial stress. Implications of the results for practice are discussed.     

Does message framing affect changes in behavioural intentions in people with psoriasis? A randomized exploratory study examining health risk communication

Message framing is important in health communication research to encourage behaviour change. Psoriasis, a long-term inflammatory skin condition, has additional comorbidities including high levels of anxiety and cardiovascular disease (CVD), making message framing particularly important. This experimental study aimed to: (1) identify whether health messages about psoriasis presented as either gain- or loss-framed were more effective for prompting changes in behavioural intentions (BI), (2) examine whether BI were driven by a desire to improve psoriasis or reduce CVD risk; (3) examine emotional reactions to message frame; and (4) examine predictors of BI. A two by two experiment examined the effects on BI of message frame (loss vs. gain) and message focus (psoriasis symptom reduction vs. CVD risk reduction). Participants with psoriasis (n = 217) were randomly allocated to one of four evidence-based health messages related to either smoking, alcohol, diet or physical activity, using an online questionnaire. BI was the primary outcome. Analysis of variance tests and hierarchical multiple regression analyses were conducted. A significant frame by focus interaction was found for BI to reduce alcohol intake (p = .023); loss-framed messages were more effective for CVD risk reduction information, whilst gain-framed messages were more effective for psoriasis symptom reduction information. Message framing effects were not found for BI for increased physical activity and improving diet. High CVD risk was a significant predictor of increased BI for both alcohol reduction (β = .290, p < .01) and increased physical activity (β = ?.231, p < .001). Message framing may be an important factor to consider depending on the health benefit emphasised (disease symptom reduction or CVD risk reduction) and patient-stated priorities. Condition-specific health messages in psoriasis populations may increase the likelihood of message effectiveness for alcohol reduction.     

Participants' perceptions of smartphone travel surveys

Smartphone travel surveys are becoming of central importance in collecting detailed, accurate data of people’s travel activities. As with their conventional survey counterparts, the quality of data collected through these surveys is adversely affected by participants’ non-response and resulting biases. However, little is known about the factors affecting people’s perceptions and intentions to continue participating in such surveys. Although literature has investigated the associations between individuals’ socio-demographic attributes and their likelihood of survey participation, the impact of their subjective perceptions and attitudes on their survey participation intentions and behaviour is underexplored. Hence, through a model of participants’ perceptions of smartphone travel survey applications (survey apps), this study aims to reveal such impacts and how they affect the participants’ intentions to continue participating in these surveys. In this study, a survey is designed and used to collect data in a smartphone travel survey before the participants are asked about their personal perceptions and attitudes. Partial least squares path modelling (PLS-PM) is applied to analyse the data, as it allows simultaneous estimation of the relationships between multiple latent constructs as well as the indicators of each construct. The results showed a significant, positive impact of the perceived “ease of use” and “usefulness” of the survey app as the technological medium of data collection on the participants’ “satisfaction” and “intention” to continue participating in the corresponding survey. The study also found that participants’ perceived “risk” associated with privacy concerns did not have any significant impact on their intention to continue participating in the survey.     

Pedestrian behaviour of 6th grade Estonian students: Implications of social factors and accident-prevention education at school

Children as pedestrians are one of the most vulnerable groups of road users. Therefore factors associated with risky pedestrian behaviour should be carefully studied. The aim of this article is to clarify how the traffic behaviour of 6th grade students as pedestrians is associated with the behaviour of their traffic companions and prevention activities at school, also taking gender into consideration. The research was conducted based on a randomly-selected sample of 1033 6th-grade students with the mean age of 12.77 ± 0.38 (SD) years. The results showed that compared to girls boys take significantly more risks as pedestrians: they rarely use reflectors during periods of darkness and often cross the road against the red light. The most important role models for adolescents in traffic behaviour are their parents. The role model behaviour with the strongest effect on adolescent high-risk behaviour in traffic is the role model not using crosswalks to cross the street. The results also showed that higher-risk traffic behaviour by adolescent pedestrians is predicted by higher-risk behaviour on the part of their companions (parents, teachers), walking alone on the street, as well as by an adolescent’s lower involvement in the less active prevention activities in the classroom. To improve adolescent pedestrians’ traffic behaviour social environment and school-based factors should be considered more thoroughly in prevention work at school.     

Enterprise credit risk evaluation based on neural network algorithm

To explore the enterprise credit risk evaluation, the application effect of several common neural network models in Chinese small and medium-sized enterprise data sets was compared and the optimal parameters for each model were determined. In addition, the classification accuracy and the applicability of the model were compared, and finally the common problem of optimization neural network algorithm based on population was solved: need to determine the dimensions in advance. The experimental results showed that the probabilistic neural network (PNN) had the minimum error rate and second types of errors, while the PNN model had the highest AUC value and was robust. To sum up, the algorithm makes some contributions to solve the financing problem of small and medium-sized enterprises in China.     

Sexual risk behaviour among HIV-infected women in the first twelve months after delivery in South Africa

This study aimed to assess sexual risk behaviour and its social correlates in HIV-infected women living in rural South Africa at six and twelve months post-partum. Participants were 699 HIV-positive women recruited prenatally by systematic sampling from twelve community health centres in Mpumalanga province, South Africa (mean age = 28.4 years, SD = 5.7; married =41.1%; serodiscordant or unknown partner status = 74.9%). They self-reported on their sexual activity six to twelve months after delivery; including use of condoms and partner involvement. Generalised linear mixed models were utilised to estimate unsafe sex outcomes from a prevention of mother to child transmission (PMTCT) intervention, socio-demographic factors, disclosure, and male involvement. About 20% of sexually active women in the past week had used condoms inconsistently at six and twelve months after delivery. Moreover, 16% and 18% of the women had not used a condom at last sex and 11% and 13% had unprotected sex with HIV-uninfected or unknown-status partners following delivery at six and twelve months, respectively. Higher inconsistent condom use was likely with lower male involvement. Promotion of condom use post-partum, as well as male involvement in sexual decisions, are important for safer sex post-partum by seropositive women.