Trait anger and anger expression style in children's risky decisions

In this study, 104 children completed a task, measuring risk decision-making, and the State-Trait Anger Expression Inventory for Children and Adolescents. Subjects were also asked to evaluate the degree of danger, benefit, fun and fear perceived for each risky choice. Analyses indicated that (a) risk decision-making was predicted by both trait anger and outward expression of anger; (b) appraisal of danger fully mediated the relationship between trait anger and risk; (c) perceptions of benefit, scare and fun partially mediated the relationship between trait anger and risk; and (d) appraisal of danger partially mediated the relationship between outward expression of anger and risk decision-making. The results provide evidence for a relationship between dispositional anger and risk decision-making during childhood, suggesting a possible explanation of the mechanisms below. In particular, risk decision-making can be viewed as the output of cognitive and emotive processes, linked to dispositional anger that leads children to be amused, optimistic and fearless in potentially risky situations. These findings substantiate the importance of incorporating cognitive and emotive factors in theories that seek to explain the relationship between personality traits and risk decision-making across a broad age range.     

Reasoning about the future: Doom and Beauty

According to the Doomsday Argument we have to rethink the probabilities we assign to a soon or not so soon extinction of mankind when we realize that we are living now, rather early in the history of mankind. Sleeping Beauty finds herself in a similar predicament: on learning the date of her first awakening, she is asked to re-evaluate the probabilities of her two possible future scenarios. In connection with Doom, I argue that it is wrong to assume that our ordinary probability judgements do not already reflect our place in history: we justify the predictive use we make of the probabilities yielded by science (or other sources of information) by our knowledge of the fact that we live now, a certain time before the possible occurrence of the events the probabilities refer to. Our degrees of belief should change drastically when we forget the date—importantly, this follows without invoking the “Self Indication Assumption”. Subsequent conditionalization on information about which year it is cancels this probability shift again. The Doomsday Argument is about such probability shifts, but tells us nothing about the concrete values of the probabilities—for these, experience provides the only basis. Essentially the same analysis applies to the Sleeping Beauty problem. I argue that Sleeping Beauty “thirders” should be committed to thinking that the Doomsday Argument is ineffective; whereas “halfers” should agree that doom is imminent—but they are wrong.     

Community-Based Interventions to Reduce Low Income, African American Women's Risk of Sexually Transmitted Diseases: A Randomized Controlled Trial of Three Theoretical Models

A community-based sample of disadvantaged African American women (n = 445) was recruited to participate in 1 of 3 theoretically driven experimental interventions based on either the theory of gender and power, social learning theory, or cognitive behavioral theory. Intervention outcomes were compared with a waiting list control condition. From baseline to postintervention, women in the experimental interventions showed differential change on cognitive indices (knowledge and attitudes) and skill acquisition (partner negotiation skills, correct condom application, lubricant selection, and information-provision to social networks) whereas control participants were unchanged. Women in the 3 experimental interventions also completed follow-up assessments for 1 year following the interventions. In all 3 experimental conditions, condom use increased relative to the control group and there were no differences between the experimental interventions. Women who participated in one of the theoretically grounded interventions continued to increase condom use over the following year. Women entering new relationships reported significantly more condom use than did women who remained in ongoing relationships. The findings suggest that intervention models that have proven effective for women who engage in high-risk behavior may be less effective for women in established relationships for whom risk is primarily derived from the extrarelationship behavior of their partners.     

Resilience in the Face of Maternal Psychopathology and Adverse Life Events

Maternal psychopathology has long been recognized as a risk factor for psychopathology in offspring; however, some resilient youth achieve a favorable outcome in the presence of maternal psychopathology. We identified factors that predicted resilience among youth who were exposed to adverse life events, and also examined whether the same factors protected youth against maternal psychopathology and adverse life events. Main and interaction effects of child and family factors were examined employing cross-sectional data from a household probability sample of 1285 youth aged 9 through 17 collected at four sites. On average, children exhibited a greater degree of resilience when they had higher IQ, closer parental monitoring, better family functioning, higher educational aspiration, and were female. Interaction between maternal psychopathology and IQ was significant, and there was a trend between maternal psychopathology and gender. A higher IQ is a protective factor against both maternal psychopathology and adverse life events; whereas being a girl seems to be a protective factor against maternal psychopathology, but not adverse life events.     

Thin-Ideal Internalization: Mounting Evidence for a New Risk Factor for Body-Image Disturbance and Eating Pathology

Body-image disturbance and eating disorders are a significant physical and mental health problem in Western countries. We describe emerging work on one newly identified variable that appears to be a potent risk factor for the development of these problems internalization of societal standards of attractiveness. Work conducted independently in our labs over the past decade has included scale development, correlational studies, prospective risk-factor studies, randomized experiments, and randomized prevention trials. Findings collectively suggest that internalization is a causal risk factor for body-image and eating disturbances, and that it appears to operate in conjunction with other established risk factors for these outcomes, including dieting and negative affect. Future research is needed to examine the specific familial, peer, and media influences that promote internalization and to replicate and extend our prospective and experimental studies.     

心理距离与后果严重性对人身安全决策的影响

已有研究发现决策者在为自己与不同他人决策时,其风险偏好存在差异。但是当对后果严重性不同的事件进行决策时,上述结果也并不总是如此。为了探究在人身安全情境中决策者面对后果严重程度不同的任务时,为自己和为他人决策时风险偏好的差异,实验一采用人际亲密度和决策所带来消极结果的严重程度分别操纵心理距离与后果严重性,结果发现决策者在后果严重任务中的决策比后果不严重任务更保守,为自己和为陌生人决策均比为最好朋友决策更冒险。这可能是由于决策者知觉到的决策责任不同所致。因此在实验一的基础上实验二引入决策责任这一变量,考察其在心理距离对风险决策影响中的作用,研究结果证明了我们的假设。     

Extensions of Rasch's multiplicative poisson model

Consideration will be given to a model developed by Rasch that assumes scores observed on some types of attainment tests can be regarded as realizations of a Poisson process. The parameter of the Poisson distribution is assumed to be a product of two other parameters, one pertaining to the ability of the subject and a second pertaining to the difficulty of the test. Rasch's model is expanded by assuming a prior distribution, with fixed but unknown parameters, for the subject parameters. The test parameters are considered fixed. Secondly, it will be shown how additional between- and within-subjects factors can be incorporated. Methods for testing the fit and estimating the parameters of the model will be discussed, and illustrated by empirical examples.     

Statistical inference based on latent ability estimates

The quality of approximations to first and second order moments (e.g., statistics like means, variances, regression coefficients) based on latent ability estimates is being discussed. The ability estimates are obtained using either the Rasch, or the two-parameter logistic model. Straightforward use of such statistics to make inferences with respect to true latent ability is not recommended, unless we account for the fact that the basic quantities are estimates. In this paper true score theory is used to account for the latter; the counterpart of observed/true score being estimated/true latent ability. It is shown that statistics based on the true score theory are virtually unbiased if the number of items presented to each examinee is larger than fifteen. Three types of estimators are compared: maximum likelihood, weighted maximum likelihood, and Bayes modal. Furthermore, the (dis)advantages of the true score method and direct modeling of latent ability is discussed.