重症急性胰腺炎并发急性呼吸窘迫综合征危险因素的分析

为了探讨重症急性胰腺炎（SAP）并发急性呼吸窘迫综合征（ARDs）的危险因素,回顾性分析了我院76例SAP患者入ICU时的年龄、血糖、APACHEⅡ评分等17项指标,根据是否合并ARDS对各项指标进行单因素及多因素Logistic回归分析。单因素分析显示两组在年龄、呼吸频率、血糖、感染、APACHEⅡ评分、Ranson评分、CT评分、ICU住院日方面差异有显著性（P〈0．05）,多因素Logistic回归分析显示年龄、血糖、感染、APACHEⅡ、Ranson、CT评分与SAP并发ARDS有关。故得出结论,年龄、血糖、感染、APACHEⅡ、Ranson与CT评分是SAP并发ARDS的独立危险因素。     

浅谈心血管疾病预防的重要性和可操作性

心血管疾病是人类死亡的主要病因,其危险因素包括吸烟、血脂异常、糖尿病、高血压、肥胖等。目前我国医务工作者限于治疗疾病,忽视疾病预防,这种模式过于被动,需要高昂的医疗支出。如果不做好心血管疾病的预防工作,将会极大影响国民经济增长。因此改善生活方式、预防心血管疾病发生,形成疾病预防模式就显得尤为重要,并具有可操作性。     

糖尿病防治的策略转变——从关注糖化血红蛋白到着眼心血管事件

通过对2型糖尿病心血管终点事件的观察,更多的临床证据提示,糖尿病的治疗目标应该以减少心血管事件为主。糖尿病防治从策略上发生了两个转变,即以血糖为中心转向以防治心血管事件为中心的多危险因素综合防治策略;以糖化血红蛋白检测作为血糖评价的金标准转向以血糖量、质、时程控制的全面评价策略。     

中国人群脂肪肝主要影响因素的荟萃分析

为系统评价中国居民脂肪肝发病的主要危险因素,检索文献数据库,收集国内1997年～2008年有关脂肪肝发病危险因素的16篇文献,利用Meta分析方法,进行综合统计分析,累计病例7200例,对照11884例。结果超重（23≤BMI〈25）、肥胖（BMI≥25）、过量饮酒、吸烟、高脂饮食、食用蔬菜、饮绿茶、爱好运动、运动少、高脂血症、高HDL—Ch、低HDL-Ch、高血压、高血糖、高血总胆固醇（≥6．5mmol／L）及糖尿病合并0R值（95％CI）分别为1．68（0．68～3．90）、5．01（3．23～7．76）、3．52（1．52～8．15）、1．18（1．01～1．37）、2．82（1．50～5．31）、0．45（0．37～0．55）、0．52（0．43～0．64）、0．32（0．14～O．74）、3．49（1．26～9．65）、4．91（2．69～8．96）、0．31（0．17～0．57）、2．14（1．50～3．03）、2．19（1．43～3．35）、2．75（1．66～4．58）、2．96（0．26～32．98）、2．29（1．30～4．01）。结论为目前影响中国人群脂肪肝发生的危险因素依次为肥胖、高脂血症、饮酒、运动少、高脂饮食、高血糖、糖尿病、高血压、低HDL—Ch和吸烟;保护因素为饮用绿茶,食用蔬菜,以及高HDL—ch;尚不能确定与中国人脂肪肝发生的相关性因素为超重和高血胆固醇。     

他汀类降低心血管危险作用模式的探讨

大量临床实验结果及流行病学资料已证实3-羟基3-甲基戊二酰辅酶A（HMG-CoA）还原酶抑制剂（简称他汀类）,在冠心病防治中能显著降低心血管危险。但他汀类是通过何种模式产生这一作用,至今仍未得出定论。四种模式可用来描述他汀类降低心血管危险可能的作用机制。通过对这四种模式的探讨,能使我们对他汀类的作用机理有更为全面的认识,也为临床工作者进一步研究及确定他汀类降低心血管危险的作用模式奠定基础。     

Delay, Probability, and Social Discounting in A Public Goods Game

A human social discount function measures the value to a person of a reward to another person at a given social distance. Just as delay discounting is a hyperbolic function of delay, and probability discounting is a hyperbolic function of odds-against, social discounting is a hyperbolic function of social distance. Experiment 1 obtained individual social, delay, and probability discount functions for a hypothetical $75 reward; participants also indicated how much of an initial $100 endowment they would contribute to a common investment in a public good. Steepness of discounting correlated, across participants, among all three discount dimensions. However, only social and probability discounting were correlated with the public-good contribution; high public-good contributors were more altruistic and also less risk averse than low contributors. Experiment 2 obtained social discount functions with hypothetical $75 rewards and delay discount functions with hypothetical $1,000 rewards, as well as public-good contributions. The results replicated those of Experiment 1; steepness of the two forms of discounting correlated with each other across participants but only social discounting correlated with the public-good contribution. Most participants in Experiment 2 predicted that the average contribution would be lower than their own contribution.     

Trait anger and anger expression style in children's risky decisions

In this study, 104 children completed a task, measuring risk decision-making, and the State-Trait Anger Expression Inventory for Children and Adolescents. Subjects were also asked to evaluate the degree of danger, benefit, fun and fear perceived for each risky choice. Analyses indicated that (a) risk decision-making was predicted by both trait anger and outward expression of anger; (b) appraisal of danger fully mediated the relationship between trait anger and risk; (c) perceptions of benefit, scare and fun partially mediated the relationship between trait anger and risk; and (d) appraisal of danger partially mediated the relationship between outward expression of anger and risk decision-making. The results provide evidence for a relationship between dispositional anger and risk decision-making during childhood, suggesting a possible explanation of the mechanisms below. In particular, risk decision-making can be viewed as the output of cognitive and emotive processes, linked to dispositional anger that leads children to be amused, optimistic and fearless in potentially risky situations. These findings substantiate the importance of incorporating cognitive and emotive factors in theories that seek to explain the relationship between personality traits and risk decision-making across a broad age range.     

计划行为模型在HIV性风险行为领域的应用与发展*

整理和回顾了计划行为模型在HIV性风险行为领域的应用与进展。该模型在不同文化背景、不同样本中,对于HIV性风险行为呈现良好的解释力,但是其整体预测力及内部变量的显著程度仍不时波动。21世纪以来,通过核心变量操作化、新变量引入和结构关系调整,模型获得了较大的扩展和完善。但在模型效度再检验、纳入社会性别视角、克服个体行为模型缺陷,以及强化模型的干预适用性方面仍有较大的发展空间     

Reasoning about the future: Doom and Beauty

According to the Doomsday Argument we have to rethink the probabilities we assign to a soon or not so soon extinction of mankind when we realize that we are living now, rather early in the history of mankind. Sleeping Beauty finds herself in a similar predicament: on learning the date of her first awakening, she is asked to re-evaluate the probabilities of her two possible future scenarios. In connection with Doom, I argue that it is wrong to assume that our ordinary probability judgements do not already reflect our place in history: we justify the predictive use we make of the probabilities yielded by science (or other sources of information) by our knowledge of the fact that we live now, a certain time before the possible occurrence of the events the probabilities refer to. Our degrees of belief should change drastically when we forget the date—importantly, this follows without invoking the “Self Indication Assumption”. Subsequent conditionalization on information about which year it is cancels this probability shift again. The Doomsday Argument is about such probability shifts, but tells us nothing about the concrete values of the probabilities—for these, experience provides the only basis. Essentially the same analysis applies to the Sleeping Beauty problem. I argue that Sleeping Beauty “thirders” should be committed to thinking that the Doomsday Argument is ineffective; whereas “halfers” should agree that doom is imminent—but they are wrong.     

我国民众对SARS信息的风险认知及心理行为

采用分层抽样的调查方法,对全国17个城市的4231名市民进行了SARS疫情中风险认知特征和心理行为的研究。结果发现：（1）负性信息,包括患病信息和与自身关系密切的信息,更易引起民众的高风险认知; 正性信息,包括治愈信息和政府防范措施的信息,能降低个体风险认知水平。（2）我国民众5月中旬风险认知因素空间位置分析结果表明, SARS病因处于不熟悉和难以控制一端,“愈后对身体的影响和有无传染性”处于不熟悉一端,这是引起民众风险意识的主要因素。（3）结构方程分析结果表明,SARS疫情信息是通过风险认知对个体的应对行为、心理健康产生影响的, 并初步验证了风险评估、心理紧张度、应对行为和心理健康等指标对于危机事件中民众心理行为的预测作用