Probabilities,causation, and logic programming in conditional reasoning: reply to Stenning and Van Lambalgen (2016)

Oaksford and Chater (2014 Oaksford, M., &; Chater, N. (2014). Probabilistic single function dual process theory and logic programming as approaches to non-monotonicity in human vs. artificial reasoning. Thinking and Reasoning, 20, 269–295. doi:10.1080/13546783.2013.877401[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], Thinking and Reasoning, 20, 269–295) critiqued the logic programming (LP) approach to nonmonotonicity and proposed that a Bayesian probabilistic approach to conditional reasoning provided a more empirically adequate theory. The current paper is a reply to Stenning and van Lambalgen's rejoinder to this earlier paper entitled ‘Logic programming, probability, and two-system accounts of reasoning: a rejoinder to Oaksford and Chater’ (2016) in Thinking and Reasoning. It is argued that causation is basic in human cognition and that explaining how abnormality lists are created in LP requires causal models. Each specific rejoinder to the original critique is then addressed. While many areas of agreement are identified, with respect to the key differences, it is concluded the current evidence favours the Bayesian approach, at least for the moment.     

Cultural worldviews and climate change: A view from China

We investigated the association between cultural worldviews and climate change risk perceptions, support for climate friendly policies and climate change mitigation behaviours in a large Chinese sample. Items from Dake's cultural theory scales and Kahan's cultural cognition scale were presented to a Qualtrics online panel consisting of 515 Mandarin‐speaking residents of Beijing. A series of factor analyses revealed that the combined item sets were best represented by four‐dimensions: hierarchism, individualism, egalitarianism and fatalism. Mediation analysis revealed that respondents with egalitarian and non‐fatalist worldviews perceived greater risk associated with climate change, which in turn predicted greater support for policies to manage climate change and increased mitigation behaviour. In addition, respondents who scored high on individualism were less likely to support climate change policies, but this effect was not mediated by risk perceptions. Overall, our results suggest cultural worldviews may influence policy support both directly and indirectly through risk perceptions.     

Masculine Ideology,Sexual Communication,and Sexual Self‐Efficacy Among Parenting Adolescent Couples

This study examined the relationship between traditional masculine role norms (status, toughness, anti‐femininity) and psychosocial mechanisms of sexual risk (sexual communication, sexual self‐efficacy) among young, low‐income, and minority parenting couples. Between 2007 and 2011, 296 pregnant adolescent females and their male partners were recruited from urban obstetrics clinics in Connecticut. Data regarding participants' beliefs in masculine role norms, frequency of general sex communication and sexual risk communication, and sexual self‐efficacy were collected via computer‐assisted self‐interviews. Generalized estimating equation (GEE) models were used to test for actor effects (whether a person's masculine role norms at baseline influence the person's own psychosocial variables at 6‐month follow‐up) and partner effects (whether a partner's masculine role norms at baseline influence an actor's psychosocial variables at 6‐month follow‐up). Results revealed that higher actor status norms were significantly associated with more sexual self‐efficacy, higher actor toughness norms were associated with less sexual self‐efficacy, and higher actor anti‐femininity norms were significantly associated with less general sex communication, sexual risk communication, and sexual self‐efficacy. No partner effects were found. These results indicate a need for redefining masculine role norms through family centered approaches in pregnant or parenting adolescent couples to increase sexual communication and sexual self‐efficacy. Further research is needed to understand partner effects in the context of a relationship and on subsequent sexual risk behavior.     

Drugs,Sex, and Condoms: Identification and Interpretation of Race‐Specific Cultural Messages Influencing Black Gay and Bisexual Young Men Living with HIV

Black gay and bisexual young men carry a disproportionate burden of HIV in the United States. This study explored Black gay and bisexual young men living with HIV's identification and interpretation of race‐specific cultural messages regarding substance use, sexual activity, and condom use. A total of 36 Black gay and bisexual young men living with HIV (ages 16–24, mean = 20.6 years) from four geographically diverse regions of the United States participated in qualitative in‐depth interviews. Results from this study elucidate the ways in which these young men interpret various forms of race‐specific cultural messages and experiences regarding substance use, sexual activity, and condom use. Participants discussed cultural messages and experiences promoting and discouraging condoms and substance use. Regarding sexual activity, only messages and experiences promoting sex were reported. Across all three categories, messages and experiences promoting risk were predominant. Data further revealed that socially transmitted cultural messages received by young men emanated from multiple sources, such as family, peers, sexual partners, community/neighborhood, and the broader society. Race‐specific cultural messages and experiences should be addressed in interventions for this population, and programs should assist young men in developing a critical consciousness regarding these messages and experiences in order to promote health and well‐being.     

青少年抑郁情绪的发展轨迹:界定亚群组及其影响因素

本研究意在分性别考察中国青少年抑郁情绪的发展轨迹及其影响因素。785名男生和859名女生参加了3轮追踪研究,初始测量阶段的年龄跨度为10~16岁,平均年龄分别为12.99±1.84和12.96±1.87岁。采用流调中心抑郁量表(CES-D)简版测量青少年的抑郁情绪。模型拟合的结果显示男女生的抑郁情绪在10~19岁时段皆呈线性增长趋势,其中男生分为两个亚群组,人际关系解释了部分变异;女生分为4个亚群组,学业压力和人际关系均解释了部分变异。     

Fetal Risks,Relative Risks,and Relatives' Risks

Several factors related to fetal risk render it more or less acceptable in justifying constraints on the behavior of pregnant women. Risk is an unavoidable part of pregnancy and childbirth, one that women must balance against other vital personal and family interests. Two particular issues relate to the fairness of claims that pregnant women are never entitled to put their fetuses at risk: relative risks and relatives' risks. The former have been used—often spuriously—to advance arguments against activities, such as home birth, that may incur risk; the latter implicate the nature of relationships in determining the acceptability of coercing or precluding activities. Motivated reasoning by clinicians and judges leads to inaccurate risk assessments, and judgments based on false claims to objectivity. Such judgments undermine the moral and legal standing of pregnant women and do not advance the interests of fetuses, pregnant women, families, or states.     

Who Is at Risk for Psychological Distress in Genetic Testing Programs for Hereditary Cancer Disorders?

Presymptomatic identification of disease gene carriers is becoming an increasingly common part of the clinical management of hereditary cancer disorders. With an expected increase in the number of requests for DNA testing and the limited resources for counseling, the amount of time genetic counselors are able to spend with test candidates will decrease. It is therefore important for counselors to identify persons at risk for psychological distress. Based on a review of experiences with Huntington disease and cancer patients, we describe factors likely to evoke distress in genetic cancer candidates. We also discuss the sometimes widely different ways that test candidates and their partners respond to genetic testing. By exploring risk factors for distress in relevant domains of the research, we can offer counselors guidelines for determining who may need extra counseling.     

求偶动机对男性冒险行为倾向的影响

基于风险行为的性选择理论, 通过内隐启动的方法探讨了求偶线索与奖赏线索对两性风险行为报告的影响。研究结果显示, 男性接触求偶线索, 与接触奖赏线索相比, 更有可能进行娱乐领域、健康领域与社会领域的风险行为活动; 而女性接触奖赏线索后, 与求偶线索相比, 更有可能会从事社会领域的风险行为活动; 两性接触求偶线索与奖赏线索后都较少可能从事经济领域的风险行为活动。这些结果符合性选择理论, 说明与求偶有关的信息线索能够诱导男性进行高风险活动, 因为在进化过程中冒险行为可以作为好基因的标志增加男性获得配偶的机会。这些结果还揭示了, 求偶动机对男性冒险行为的诱发作用远胜于外部动机(如金钱奖赏), 因为求偶是人类在长期进化过程中形成的本能需求。     

Assessing risky public investments with MUSTARD

This paper presents a practical implementation of multicriteria methodologies based on the UTA model by Jacquet‐Lagrèze and Siskos and Quasi‐UTA model by Beuthe and Scannella, which are specified with a non‐linear, but piecewise linear, additive utility function. In contrast with the general UTA model, the Quasi‐UTA specification structures the partial utilities as recursive exponential functions of only one curvature parameter. This allows for a reduction of the quantity of information necessary to build the utility function. The software MUSTARD implements different variants of these models. Firstly, it offers the basic deterministic UTA model of disaggregation, but also its first programmed stochastic version. In both cases, the software proceeds stepwise and interactively helping the decision maker to formulate the problem and state preferences between projects; in the stochastic case, the decision maker is even helped to build the criteria distributions. The Quasi‐UTA specification can be introduced in this disaggregation model. Secondly, the software offers an aggregation model whereby the Quasi‐UTA partial utility functions are built separately through specific questioning processes. The questions relating to deterministic criteria are of the ‘direct rating type’, while those of the stochastic criteria are either of the ‘variable probability’ or the ‘variable outcome’ type. The criteria weights can be assessed by the ‘swing weight’ method or by a UTA‐II side‐program. As an example as well as a test of the Quasi‐UTA aggregation approach, the paper presents its application to a real problem of selecting road investment projects in Belgium. Several experts and civil servants were interviewed, and their individual utility functions derived. The projects are ranked according to their rate of return, which is computed on the basis of the projects certain equivalent money value. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.