When is a cause the “same”? Incoherent generalization across contexts

A theory or model of cause such as Cheng's power (p) allows people to predict the effectiveness of a cause in a different causal context from the one in which they observed its actions. Liljeholm and Cheng demonstrated that people could detect differences in the effectiveness of the cause when causal power varied across contexts of different outcome base rates, but that they did not detect similar changes when only the cause–outcome contingency, ?p, but not power, varied. However, their procedure allowed participants to simplify the causal scenarios and consider only a subsample of observations with a base rate of zero. This confounds p, ?p, and the probability of an outcome (O) given a cause (C), P(O|C). Furthermore, the contingencies that they used confounded p and P(O|C) in the overall sample. Following the work of Liljeholm and Cheng, we examined whether causal induction in a wider range of situations follows the principles suggested by Cheng. Experiments 1a and 1b compared the procedure used by Liljeholm and Cheng with one that did not allow the sample of observations to be simplified. Experiments 2a and 2b compared the same two procedures using contingencies that controlled for P(O|C). The results indicated that, if the possibility of converting all contexts to a zero base rate situation was avoided, people were sensitive to changes in P(O|C), p, and ?p when each of these was varied. This is inconsistent with Liljeholm and Cheng's conclusion that people detect only changes in p. These results question the idea that people naturally extract the metric or model of cause from their observation of stochastic events and then, reasonably exclusively, use this theory of a causal mechanism, or for that matter any simple normative theory, to generalize their experience to alternative contexts.     

A Study of low scores in Canadian children and adolescents on the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children,Fourth Edition (WISC-IV)

Knowing the prevalence of low neurocognitive scores for the WISC-IV Canadian normative sample (WISC-IV^CDN) is an important supplement for clinical interpretation of test performance. On the WISC-IV^CDN, it is uncommon for children and adolescents to have 4 or more subtest scores or 2 or more Index scores ≤ 9th percentile when all scores on the battery are considered simultaneously. As the level of the child's intelligence increases or the number of years of parental education increases, the prevalence of low scores decreases. These results are consistent with existing studies of the base rates of low scores in children and adolescents on pediatric cognitive batteries, including the WISC-IV American normative sample. Tables provided are ready for clinical use.     

Replacement—A Sheffer Stroke for Belief Change

By replacement is meant an operation that replaces one sentence by another in a belief set. Replacement can be used as a kind of Sheffer stroke for belief change, since contraction, revision, and expansion can all be defined in terms of it. Replacement can also be defined either in terms of contraction or in terms of revision. Close connections are shown to hold between axioms for replacement and axioms for contraction and revision. Partial meet replacement is axiomatically characterized. It is shown that this operation can have outcomes that are not obtainable through either partial meet contraction or partial meet revision.     

Differential information use for near and distant decisions

Whether choosing a cell phone, a senator, or a kitchen appliance, consumers today quickly find themselves awash in information from commercials, magazines, and websites. Whereas some of this information is broad, decontextualized, and abstracted across multiple individuals and instances, other information is more closely tied to a single experience within one specific context. The present research asks: under what circumstances do people rely on abstracted averages, and when are they swayed by another individual’s particular experience? Across three studies, we show that temporal distance increases the relative weight placed on aggregate vs. individualized information when participants are asked to choose between two sleeping pills, migraine medications, or kitchen appliances, and that this process impacts not only evaluation but also willingness to pay and choice. Potential implications for evaluation, decision-making, and base-rate utilization are discussed.     

Dynamic stability during running gait termination: Predictors for successful control of forward momentum in children and adults

Reported differences between children and adults with respect to COM horizontal and vertical position to maintain dynamic stability during running deceleration suggest that this relationship may not be as important in children. This study challenged the current dynamic stability paradigm by determining the features of whole body posture that predicted forward velocity and momentum of running gait termination in adults and children. Sixteen adults and 15 children ran as fast as possible and stopped at pre-determined location. Separate regression analyses determined whether COM posterior and vertical positions and functional limb length (distance between COM and stance foot) predicted velocity and momentum for adults and children. COM posterior position was the strongest predictor of forward velocity and momentum in both groups supporting the previously established relationship during slower tasks. COM vertical position also predicted momentum in children, not adults. Higher COM position in children was related to greater momentum; consistent with previously reported differences between children and adults in COM position across running deceleration. COM vertical position was related to momentum but not velocity in children suggesting that strategies used to terminate running may be driven by demands imposed not just by velocity, but also the mass being decelerated.     

A case study of expert judgment: Economists' probabilities versus base-rate model forecasts

In this case study of economists' forecasts concerning economic downturn, we examine key issues concerning the psychology of prediction and the controversy surrounding the value of expertise in forecasting. We examine when experts' knowledge promotes forecast accuracy and whether biases found in psychological studies (including underutilization of relevant base rates and tendencies to extreme prediction) occur in these economic forecasts. Experts' forecasts were compared to forecasts derived from base-rate models that relied on the historical frequencies of economic downturns. The performance patterns of the experts and models crossed over the forecast horizon. Experts outperformed models in shorter-term forecasting, whereas models outperformed experts in longer-term forecasting. These results highlight the abilities and limits of experts and models in prediction and the sources of their inaccuracy.     

Claiming a moral minority, saccades help create a biased majority: Tracking eye movements to base rates in social predictions

How do people hold erroneous views about their own moral behavior? This study investigated the use of distributional information in self and social predictions by measuring eye movements to base rates. Across 15 scenarios, participants claimed moral superiority over a comparison peer by predicting that base rates would be less predictive of one’s own behaviors than a comparison peer’s. In support of the differential use of distributional information hypothesis, participants looked less often to base rate information when making self rather than social predictions. Eye movements mediated the relationship between target of the prediction and the strength of the relationship between base rates and behavioral likelihood estimates. Implications for self-deception in self and social judgment are discussed.     

Une base de données en sémantique du verbe : Semasit

In this article, we present Semasit, a semantic database for French verbs developed for the purposes of experimental research in psycholinguistics and neuropsychology. This database features the distribution of the agents and patients of 96 verbs of interpersonal relations, and 60 verbs of change of state, based on their probability of occurence for 100 participants. It also provides the free-association norms of these 156 verbs. The degree of imagery is also presented for some of them. For 24 verbs of interpersonal relations, this semantic database is completed by the distribution of the patients, when an agent and a verb are presented together. It also provides the free association norms of the patients in this case. This database in freely accessible and can be downloaded from the Internet: http://www.mshs.univ-poitiers.fr/lmdc/semasit/frame-index.htm.