Interpreting effect sizes when controlling for stability effects in longitudinal autoregressive models: Implications for psychological science

Effect sizes in longitudinal studies often are dramatically smaller than effect sizes in cross-sectional studies. Indeed, autoregressive models (which are often used in longitudinal studies but not in cross-sectional studies) control for past levels on the outcome (i.e., stability effects) in order to predict change in levels of the outcome over time and thus may greatly reduce the magnitude of the effect of a predictor on the outcome. Unfortunately, however, there have been no attempts to differentiate guidelines for interpreting effect sizes for longitudinal studies versus cross-sectional studies. Consequently, longitudinal effect sizes that fall below the universal guidelines for “small” may be incorrectly dismissed as trivial, when they might be meaningful. In the current paper, we first review the present guidelines for interpreting effect sizes. Next, we discuss several examples of how controlling for stability effects can dramatically attenuate effect sizes of other predictors, in order to support our argument that the current guidelines may be misleading for interpreting longitudinal effects. Finally, we conclude by making recommendations for researchers regarding the interpretation of effect sizes in longitudinal autoregressive models.     

Dolphin pointing is linked to the attentional behavior of a receiver

In 2001, Xitco et al. (Anim Cogn 4:115–123) described spontaneous behaviors in two bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) that resembled pointing and gaze alternation. The dolphins spontaneous behavior was influenced by the presence of a potential receiver, and the distance between the dolphin and the receiver. The present study adapted the technique of Call and Tomasello [(1994) J Comp Psychol 108:307–317], used with orangutans to test the effect of the receivers orientation on pointing in these same dolphins. The dolphins directed more points and monitoring behavior at receivers whose orientation was consistent with attending to the dolphins. The results demonstrated that the dolphins pointing and monitoring behavior, like that of apes and infants, was linked to the attentional behavior of the receiver.     

On the fate of distractor stimuli in rapid serial visual presentation

Observers demonstrate an impaired ability to report the second of two targets in a rapid serial visual presentation (RSVP) stream if it appears within 500 ms of the first target--a phenomenon known as the attentional blink. This study investigated the fate of stimuli in dual-target RSVP streams that do not require report--the distractors. In five experiments, observers viewed dual-target RSVP streams where the items flanking Target 1 either had the same identity (repeats) or a different identity (non-repeats). Repeated distractors reduced the attentional blink, but only if two conditions were met (1) the items flanking Target 1 were featurally identical and (2) the distractors were drawn from a different alphanumeric category to the targets (e.g. digits vs. letters). We interpret this reduced blink magnitude in the repeat trials as evidence that in RSVP streams distractor items that appear in close temporal proximity to Target 1 are inhibited and we propose that this inhibition occurs both at the level of alphanumeric features and abstract identities.     

The effect of emotional context on cognitive inhibition and attentional processing in dissociative identity disorder

In light of previous research, the current study tested the hypothesis that dissociative identity disorder (DID) would be characterised by effective cognitive inhibitory functioning when tested in a neutral context, but weakened inhibition when tested in an emotionally negative context. Using a negative priming task (i.e. the flanker task) to assess inhibitory ability 11 DID, 11 depressed, and 11 general population participants were tested in the two differing experimental contexts. The contexts were manipulated by instructions and word stimuli, and following the completion of this task participants completed the Dissociative Experiences Scale and the Schizotypal Personality Scale. DID participants displayed a greater degree of self-reported anxiety in the negative context and as expected displayed a reduction in inhibition in this context but not in the neutral context. The degree of negative priming for the depressed and general population samples remained stable across contexts as did their anxiety levels. The DID sample displayed slower response times to negative compared to neutral words but this attentional bias was not evident for the two comparison groups. The relationship between increased arousal, inhibitory functioning, dissociation and information processing in DID is discussed.     

Automatic attentional orienting to other people’s gaze in schizophrenia

Explicit tests of social cognition have revealed pervasive deficits in schizophrenia. Less is known of automatic social cognition in schizophrenia. We used a spatial orienting task to investigate automatic shifts of attention cued by another person’s eye gaze in 29 patients and 28 controls. Central photographic images of a face with eyes shifted left or right, or looking straight ahead, preceded targets that appeared left or right of the cue. To examine automatic effects, cue direction was non-predictive of target location. Cue–target intervals were 100, 300, and 800?ms. In non-social control trials, arrows replaced eye-gaze cues. Both groups showed automatic attentional orienting indexed by faster reaction times (RTs) when arrows were congruent with target location across all cue–target intervals. Similar congruency effects were seen for eye-shift cues at 300 and 800?ms intervals, but patients showed significantly larger congruency effects at 800?ms, which were driven by delayed responses to incongruent target locations. At short 100-ms cue–target intervals, neither group showed faster RTs for congruent than for incongruent eye-shift cues, but patients were significantly slower to detect targets after direct-gaze cues. These findings conflict with previous studies using schematic line drawings of eye-shifts that have found automatic attentional orienting to be reduced in schizophrenia. Instead, our data indicate that patients display abnormalities in responding to gaze direction at various stages of gaze processing—reflected by a stronger preferential capture of attention by another person’s direct eye contact at initial stages of gaze processing and difficulties disengaging from a gazed-at location once shared attention is established.