The pseudodiagnosticity trap: Should participants consider alternative hypotheses?

The pseudodiagnosticity task has been used as an example of the tendency on the part of participants to incorrectly assess Bayesian constraints in assessing data, and as a failure to consider alternative hypotheses in a probabilistic inference task. In the task, participants are given one value, the anchor value, corresponding to P(D1|H) and may choose one other value, either P(D1|¬!H), P(D2|H), or P(D2|not;!H). Most participants select P(D2|H), or P(D2|¬!H) which have been considered inappropriate (and called pseudodiagnostic) because only P(D1|¬!H) allows use of Bayes' theorem. We present a new analysis based on probability intervals and show that selection of either P(D2|H), or P(D2|¬!H) is in fact pseudodiagnostic, whereas choice of P(D1|¬!H) is diagnostic. Our analysis shows that choice of the pseudodiagnostic values actually increases uncertainty regarding the posterior probability of H, supporting the original interpretation of the experimental findings on the pseudodiagnosticity task. The argument illuminates the general proposition that evolutionarily adaptive heuristics for Bayesian inference can be misled in some task situations.     

EDGAR MORIN'S PARADIGM OF COMPLEXITY AND GÖDEL'S INCOMPLETENESS THEOREM

This article shows that in two respects, Gödel's incompleteness theorem strongly supports the arguments of Edgar Morin's complexity paradigm. First, from the viewpoint of the content of Gödel's theorem, the latter justifies the basic view of complexity paradigm according to which knowledge is a dynamic, unfinished process, and develops by way of self-criticism and self-transcendence. Second, from the viewpoint of the proof procedure of Gödel's theorem, the latter confirms the complexity paradigm's circular line of inference through which is formed the all-round knowledge of a concrete object.     

RELIGION AND THE THEORIES OF SCIENCE: A RESPONSE TO BARBOUR

Abstract. This paper offers a detailed response to “Religion and the Theories of Science” in Barbour's Gifford Lectures I. Topics include: complementarity, indeterminacy, parts and wholes, and Bell's theorem in quantum theory; metaphysical issues raised by relativity theory and thermodynamics, principally the problem of temporality and “top-down” versus “bottom—up” causality; design arguments and the origins of the universe in astronomy and creation; and God's action in the context of evolution and continuing creation. Areas of agreement and disagreement between Barbour and myself over philosophical and theological implications are presented, and endnotes indicate further areas of conversation.     

Gleason's Theorem Has a Constructive Proof

Gleason's theorem for R ³ says that if f is a nonnegative function on the unit sphere with the property that f(x) + f(y) + f(z) is a fixed constant for each triple x,y,z of mutually orthogonal unit vectors, then f is a quadratic form. We examine the issues raised by discussions in this journal regarding the possibility of a constructive proof of Gleason"s theorem in light of the recent publication of such a proof.     

Slippery Slopes and Collapsing Taboos

A slippery slope argument is an argument to this twofold effect. First, that if a policy or practice P is permitted, then we lack the dialectical resources to demonstrate that a similar policy or practice P* is not permissible. Since P* is indeed not permissible, we should not endorse policy or practice P. At the heart of such arguments is the idea of dialectical impotence, the inability to stop the acceptance of apparently small deviations from a heretofore secure policy or practice from leading to apparently large and unacceptable deviations. Using examples of analogical arguments and sorites arguments I examine this phenomenon in the context of collapsing taboos.     

On the Logic of β-pregroups

In this paper we concentrate mainly on the notion of β-pregroups, which are pregroups (first introduced by Lambek [18] in 1999) enriched with modality operators. β-pregroups were first proposed by Fadda [11] in 2001. The motivation to introduce them was to limit (locally) the associativity in the calculus considered. In this paper we present this new calculus in the form of a rewriting system, prove the very important feature of this system - that in a given derivation the non-expanding rules must always proceed non-contracting ones in order the derivation to be minimal (normalization theorem). We also propose a sequent system for this calculus and prove the cut elimination theorem for it. As an illustration we show how to use β-pregroups for linguistical applications. Special Issue Categorial Grammars and Pregroups Edited by Wojciech Buszkowski and Anne Preller     

Dynamic doxastic logic: why,how, and where to?

We investigate the research programme of dynamic doxastic logic (DDL) and analyze its underlying methodology. The Ramsey test for conditionals is used to characterize the logical and philosophical differences between two paradigmatic systems, AGM and KGM, which we develop and compare axiomatically and semantically. The importance of Gärdenfors’s impossibility result on the Ramsey test is highlighted by a comparison with Arrow’s impossibility result on social choice. We end with an outlook on the prospects and the future of DDL.     

Covenants and reputations

In their classic analyses, Hobbes and Hume argue that offensively violating a covenant is irrational because the offense ruins one’s reputation. This paper explores conditions under which reputation alone can enforce covenants. The members of a community are modeled as interacting in a Covenant Game repeated over time. Folk theorems are presented that give conditions under which the Humean strategy of performing in covenants only with those who have never offensively violated or performed with an offensive violator characterizes an equilibrium of the repeated Covenant Game. These folk theorems establish that for certain ideal settings Hobbes’ and Hume’s arguments against offensively violating covenants are compelling. However, these ideal settings presuppose that the community has certain mechanisms that generate common knowledge of the identities of those with whom one should perform. I analyze the results of computer simulations of the interactions in a community whose members must rely upon private communication alone. The computer simulation data show that in this community, reputation effects cannot effectively deter members from offensively violating covenants. I conclude that Hobbes’ and Hume’s warnings against offensive violation are compelling only on condition that the community is sufficiently structured to generate common knowledge among its members. I also conclude that even in such structured communities, the Humean strategy is not the uniquely “correct” policy.