The explanatory potential of artificial societies

It is often claimed that artificial society simulations contribute to the explanation of social phenomena. At the hand of a particular example, this paper argues that artificial societies often cannot provide full explanations, because their models are not or cannot be validated. Despite that, many feel that such simulations somehow contribute to our understanding. This paper tries to clarify this intuition by investigating whether artificial societies provide potential explanations. It is shown that these potential explanations, if they contribute to our understanding, considerably differ from potential causal explanations. Instead of possible causal histories, simulations offer possible functional analyses of the explanandum. The paper discusses how these two kinds explanatory strategies differ, and how potential functional explanations can be appraised.     

Bayesian journey-to-crime modelling of single and multiple crime-type series in Baltimore County,MD

This study tested different Bayesian Journey-to-Crime (JTC) models on a sample group of 850 serial offenders apprehended in Baltimore County, MD from 1993 to 1997. In this research, Bayesian JTC models were being used to predict the home locations of the offenders. The sample group data included 133 assaults, 90 burglaries, 497 larcenies, 81 robberies, and 49 vehicle thefts. The main question this research aimed to answer was whether the addition of crimes of a different type to an existing crime series of a single type would result in more accurate and/or precise Bayesian JTC models. The standard practice by law enforcement has been to consider the same-type crime series only when modelling the anchor point of the offender. Similarly, in research, geographic profiles have been constructed exclusively with the same-type crime series. The results of this study clearly indicated that the inclusion of crimes of a different type into a single crime-type series will result in significantly more accurate and more precise Bayesian JTC models. In contrast, crime series with predominantly assault and burglary showed results that were inconclusive or indicated no significant differences. These results should encourage law enforcement agencies to re-evaluate their standard practice of constructing geographic profiles with only the same-type crime series. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

MODIFYING LETTER AND NUMBER REVERSALS IN ELEMENTARY SCHOOL CHILDREN1

Children from regular and special-education classes were exposed to tutoring procedures designed to modify letter and number reversals. In Experiment I, two students showed reversals during letter-naming (e.g., saying p for q) and two-digit number (e.g., writing 31 for 13) exercises. In Experiment II, one subject made two-digit reversals, while the other child reversed single-digit numbers (e.g., 9 written with circle on right side of stem). The subject in Experiment III emitted letter reversals under naming, dictation, and copying exercises. The child in Experiment IV showed written letter reversals on both sides of the “body midline” under dictation procedures. Basic treatment procedures during all experiments involved modelling of correct and incorrect symbol formation, and differential experimenter feedback following student responses. During Experiments I and II, subjects were praised for each correct response, and informed when a reversal occurred. Experiment III included a Modelling Only Phase before these feedback procedures. Besides praise, treatment conditions in Experiment IV consisted of additional feedback following correct responses (e.g., charting correct responses), and temporal delays imposed between dictated letters and student responses. Except for occasional letter-naming reversals of one subject (Experiment I), and letter dictation errors of another (Experiment IV), reversals were eliminated when all experiments terminated. The Modelling Only Phase in Experiment III also reduced reversals to a low level. These findings suggest that a variety of reversal problems may be effectively assessed and remediated via simple modelling and reinforcement procedures. In addition, postcheck observations indicated that the effects were enduring. The present procedures should be easily implemented by school personnel.     

TEACHING COIN SUMMATION TO THE MENTALLY RETARDED1

A procedure to teach four mild and moderately retarded persons to sum the value of coin combinations was tested. Subjects were first taught to count a single target coin, and then to sum that coin in combination with coins previously trained. Five American coins and various combinations were trained. Modelling, modelling with subject participation, and independent counting by the subject constituted the training sequence. The subjects improved from a mean pretest score of 29% to 92% correct at posttest. A four-week followup score showed a mean of 79% correct. A multiple-baseline design suggested that improvement in coin-counting performance occurred only after the coin was trained. The results indicate that this procedure has potential for teaching the retarded to sum combinations of coins in 5 to 6 hr of instruction.     

Correspondence between saying and doing: teaching children to share and praise

Five small groups of preschool children were taught to share and praise by the modelling of these behaviors and reinforcement of their reports of sharing and praising. Experiment I demonstrated that modelling and reinforcement of any (true or untrue) reports of sharing, and then of praising, promptly increased reports of the corresponding behaviors. Modelling and reinforcement for true reports of each behavior increased both reporting and actual behavior. Experiment II showed that both reported and actual sharing and praising may be increased by modelling and reinforcement for true reports of the target behavior, without previous reinforcement for any (true or untrue) reports of those behaviors. Sharing, but not praising, generalized to a second setting. Experiment III replicated the results of Experiment II for sharing and praising, and demonstrated similar success in increasing a third behavior, specific praising. In general, these experiments show that developing correspondence between children's reports of behavior and actual behavior may be an efficient means of increasing prosocial responses.     

Learning from exemplars: emulation,character formation and the complexities of ordinary life

In the field of character education role-modelling is advocated as an important pedagogical strategy. It is supposed that students learn from ‘significant others’ who exemplify important virtues and values. However, in these strategies it is not clear what and how students precisely can and should learn from exemplars and how the following of exemplars relates to the educational aim of ‘becoming a self.’ In this article, it is argued that modelling is only a relevant pedagogical strategy if moral exemplars are somehow related to life in its full extent, including its moral complexities and ambiguities. Understanding moral exemplarity demands not only the reappropriation of an Aristotelian conception of emulation but also an understanding of the typical modern relocation of moral exemplarity in the fullness of life, importantly originating from what Charles Taylor calls the Protestant ‘affirmation of ordinary life.’ In addition, a distinction is introduced between ‘role exemplarity’ and ‘existential exemplarity.’ Based on this distinction it is argued that emulation should not be limited to learning from role models, but should also include something that runs deeper, to the depth of our own subjectivity or self.     

“What Makes a Cooperative Driver?” Identifying parameters of implicit and explicit forms of communication in a lane change scenario

An automated vehicle needs to learn how human road users communicate with each other in order to avoid misunderstandings and prevent giving a negative outward image during interactions. The aim of the present work is to develop an autonomous driving system which communicates its intentions to change lanes based on implicit and explicit rules used by human drivers. To reach this goal, we aimed at gaining a deeper understanding of which aspects of lane change behaviour makes them cooperative from the perspective of other drivers. Therefore a vehicle used various lane change announcement strategies by varying combinations of driving parameters in a static driving simulator. (First study: Start indicator signal, Waittime, lane change duration; Second study: Longitudinal acceleration). It’s impact on the perception and behaviour of other road users was observed in two studies (N = 25 per study). The results showed that the earlier the merging vehicle was indicating its intentions, the more cooperative it was perceived. When turning on the indicator at a later time participants considered it as more cooperative to merge with a slower or faster lane change duration or to wait longer in the lane before starting to move to the other lane. An early longitudinal acceleration when starting to change lanes is perceived more cooperative. These findings can be used to model a lane change strategy based on human behaviour, which will eventually lead to more acceptable and safer interactions between automated and non-automated road users.     

Authentic leadership,followership, and psychological capital as antecedents of work engagement

The present study investigated authentic leadership, psychological capital, and followership behaviour influences on work engagement of employees. Respondents were 901 South African employees within the healthcare industry organisation (n = 647) and mining industry (n = 254). The employees completed questionnaires on authentic leadership, psychological capital, and followership behaviour, and work engagement. Results following structural equation modelling and mediation analysis suggest work engagement to be explained by the psychological capital of the employee rather than by authentic leadership qualities. Improving employee psychological capital has the potential to enhance the levels of work engagement of employees.