Hindsight bias redefined: It’s about time

Four experiments introduced a new conceptual and methodological approach to hindsight bias, traditionally defined as the tendency to exaggerate the a priori predictability of outcomes after they become known. By examining likelihood estimates rooted to specific time points during an unfolding event sequence (videos and short text stories), judged both in foresight and hindsight, we conceptualized hindsight bias as a contrast between two “inevitability curves,” which plotted likelihood against time. Taking timing into account, we defined three new indicators of accuracy: linear accuracy (how well hindsight judgments capture the linear trend of foresight judgments over time), rate accuracy (how well hindsight judgments reflect the slope of foresight judgments over time), and temporal accuracy (how well hindsight judgments specify the overall timing of the full envelope of foresight judgments). Results demonstrated that hindsight judgments showed linear and rate accuracy, but were biased only in terms of lack of temporal accuracy. The oft-used catchphrase “knew it all along effect” was found to be a misnomer, in that participants were well aware in hindsight that their earlier foresight judgments reflected uncertainty. The current research therefore points to one way in which retrospective judgments can be considered biased, yet simultaneously suggests that considerable accuracy exists when people render such judgments.     

Interactions between emotion regulation strategies and affective style: Implications for trait anxiety versus depressed mood

Affective style reflecting approach and inhibition is thought to be associated in distinct ways with anxious versus depressed mood; relatively few studies, however, consider how the interaction between affective style and the strategies individuals use to regulate mood and emotion might influence these associations. Sixty-seven non-disordered adults self-reported on their use of two emotion regulation strategies (cognitive reappraisal and expressive suppression), behavioral approach (BAS) and behavioral inhibition sensitivity (BIS) dimensions of affective style, and anxious and depressed mood (trait anxiety and symptoms of depression). Trait anxiety versus depressed mood was associated with unique interactive patterns of emotion regulation and affective style: enhanced use of reappraisal was linked to less depressed mood in those reporting low BAS, whereas high suppression was linked to greater trait anxiety in those reporting low BIS. The implications of findings for typical emotional processes and for clinical disorders and interventions are discussed.     

Le rôle modérateur des orientations vers les objectifs dans la relation entre l’envergure de poste et l’engagement organisationnel

This paper examines the moderating role of goal orientations (learning, performance and avoidance orientation) in the relationship between job scope (i.e., a composite measure capturing task variety, autonomy, feedback and significance) and organizational commitment. Based on a sample of 314 participants, the analyses indicate that job scope is positively related to commitment and that performance orientation and avoidance orientation act as negative moderators of job scope. Specifically, job scope was more strongly related to commitment at low levels of these traits. We discuss the importance of considering the role of employee personality in the study of the effect of work context on commitment.