Why versus how often: Causal reasoning and the incidence of judgmental bias

When faced with the task of making a prediction or estimating a likelihood, it is argued that people often reason about the presence or absence and relative strength of possible causal mechanisms for the production of relevant outcomes. In so doing people rely on “causal cues” or properties of an inferential problem which indicate the nature of the particular causal processes which give rise to specific outcomes. It is hypothesized that causal cues, precisely because they focus attention and thought on specific causal mechanisms, can obscure the relevance of mathematical laws of probability and lead to statistically biased judgment. Two experiments were conducted. Their results support the hypothesis, showing that the incidence of the conjunction fallacy and the base rate fallacy depend on task-specific cues for causal reasoning.     

Development of the Career Exploration Survey (CES)

The development, properties, and uses of the Career Exploration Survey (CES) are described. The CES is intended to (a) facilitate further theory development and empirical research on how exploration affects career decisions, development, and job outcomes, such as job satisfaction, commitment, and turnover; (b) provide a network of variables for investigating the dynamics of the exploration process; and (c) provide a set of criterion measures for examining the effects of personal characteristics and educational treatments on career exploration behaviors and beliefs. The CES is based on a conceptual framework derived from theories of exploration, stress, motivation, and career preference. It consists of seven measures of the career exploration process, three reactions to exploration, and six beliefs about exploration. Dimensionality, reliability, and validity data are presented for four studies comprising 680 observations across 601 individuals.     

AN EVALUATION OF TEACHING-FAMILY (ACHIEVEMENT PLACE) GROUP HOMES FOR JUVENILE OFFENDERS

Juvenile crime is a serious problem for which no treatment approach has been found to be reliably effective. This outcome evaluation assessed during and posttreatment effectiveness of Teaching-Family group home treatment programs for juvenile offenders. The evaluation included the original Achievement Place program, which was the prototype for the development of the Teaching-Family treatment approach, 12 replications of Achievement Place, and 9 comparison group home programs. Primary dependent measures were retrieved from court and police files and included number of alleged offenses, percentage of youths involved in those alleged offenses, and percentage of youths institutionalized. Other dependent measures were subjective ratings of effectiveness obtained from the program consumers, including the group home residents. The results showed difference during treatment favoring the Teaching-Family programs on rate of alleged criminal offenses, percentage of youths involved in those offenses, and consumer ratings of the programs. The consumer ratings provided by the youths and their school teachers were found to be inversely and significantly correlated with the reduction of criminal offenses during treatment. There were no significant differences during treatment on measures of noncriminal offenses (e.g., truancy, runaway, and curfew violations). In the posttreatment year, none of the differences between the groups was significant on any of the outcome measures. The results are discussed in terms of measurement and design issues in the evaluation of delinquency treatment programs and in relation to the evaluation of Teaching-Family group homes by Richard Jones and his colleagues.     

Finite and infinite state confusion models

A confusion model is defined as a model that decomposes response probabilities in stimulus identification experiments into perceptual parameters and response parameters. Historically, confusion models fall into two groups. Models in Group I, which includes Townsend's (Perception and Psychophysics, 1971, 9, 40–50) overlap model, were developed on the basis of the notion that stimulus identification is mediated by a finite number of internal states. We call the general class of models that have this processing interpretation finite state confusion models. Models in Group II, which includes Luce's (R. O. Luce et al., Eds., Handbook of Mathematical Psychology (Vol. I), New York: Wiley, 1963) biased choice model, were not developed on the basis of an explicit processing interpretation. It is shown here that models in Group II are not finite state confusion models. We prove in addition that except for Falmagne's (Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 1972, 9, 206–224) simply biased model models in Group II belong to a certain class of infinite state confusion models, namely, models asserting that stimulus identification is mediated by a continuous space of vectors representing detector activation levels.     

Career stage as a moderator of performance relationships with facets of job satisfaction and role perceptions

The relationship between performance indices and facets of job satisfaction, role ambiguity, and role conflict was studied among 102 full-time faculty members across three career stages. Results indicate that an individual's career stage within a profession has an important moderating effect on facets of job satisfaction and role perception relationships with role-related performance.     

The two roads from passion to sport performance and psychological well-being: The mediating role of need satisfaction,deliberate practice,and achievement goals

ObjectivesResearch on passion has demonstrated the existence of two roads toward sports performance through the effects of deliberate practice (Vallerand et al., 2007, 2008). The first emanates from harmonious passion (HP) and contributes to both performance and psychological well-being. The second stems from obsessive passion (OP), and performance comes at the cost of well-being. The present research proposes that need satisfaction (Deci & Ryan, 2000) mediates the relation of HP, but not OP, with both outcomes. In Study 2, achievement goals were added to the model. Mastery goals were expected to mediate the positive relation between HP and outcomes, whereas performance-avoidance goals would be associated with OP and, thus be detrimental to athletes.DesignTwo studies using correlational (Study 1) and longitudinal (Study 2) designs.MethodStudy 1 (N = 172) was conducted with soccer players. Study 2 was conducted with hockey players (N = 598). Athletes completed measures of passion, need satisfaction, life satisfaction, deliberate practice, and achievement goals (Study 2 only). Coaches assessed performance in Study 1. Study 2 used games played in competitive leagues over 15 years to measure performance.ResultsAnalyses using SEM provided support for the mediating role of need satisfaction (Study 1 and 2) and achievement goals (Study 2) in the relation of HP with outcomes. In contrast, deliberate practice (Study 1 and 2) meditated the relation between OP and performance.ConclusionsThis research supported the mediating role of need satisfaction in the ‘two roads to performance” (Vallerand et al., 2007, 2008).     

青少年未来时间洞察力和学业成绩的关系:时间管理倾向的中介作用

思考未来对个体现在行为具有重要指导意义。本研究以1002名初、高中学生为调查对象,采用问卷调查法探究未来时间洞察力与学业成绩间的关系,以及时间管理倾向在其中的中介作用。结果表明:(1)学业成绩高低分组在未来时间洞察力各维度和时间管理倾向上差异显著。(2)未来积极、未来坚持、未来清晰和未来计划与时间管理倾向和学业成绩呈显著正相关,未来消极和未来迷茫与时间管理倾向和学业成绩呈显著负相关。(3)未来消极对学业成绩具有显著的直接预测作用;未来消极还通过时间效能感间接影响学业成绩;时间管理倾向在未来迷茫、未来清晰、未来坚持、未来计划和学业成绩之间起中介作用。     

中小学生人际信任、成就动机及其与合作倾向的关系研究

目的：旨在揭示中小学儿童的人际信任、成就动机水平及其与合作倾向之间的关系。方法：运用马基量表、人际信任量表、成就动机量表和合作倾向评价表对553名3-8年级学生进行测查。结果：1,初中男女生在人际信任水平上出现明显分化。2,男生追求成功的动机和避免失败的动机随年龄增长出现下降趋势,女生追求成功的动机下降,避免失败的动机上升。3,追求成功的动机与合作倾向有显著正相关。结论：与人际信任水平相比,成就动机在儿童合作倾向的评价中发挥了更大的作用。     

Physiological markers of challenge and threat mediate the effects of performance-based goals on performance

We predicted that adopting a performance-approach vs. performance-avoidance goal would lead to physiological responses characteristic of psychological states of challenge vs. threat appraisals, respectively. Furthermore, we predicted that these states would mediate the effects of goals on performance. Twenty-seven undergraduate females performed a task described as identifying either exceptionally strong performers (performance-approach goal) or exceptionally weak performers (performance-avoidance goal). Participants’ cardiovascular reactivity (CVR) was recorded while they performed the task. As predicted, participants in the performance-approach goal condition performed better on the task than did those in the performance-avoidance goal condition. Also as predicted, those in the former condition exhibited a challenge pattern of CVR whereas those in the latter condition exhibited a threat pattern of CVR. Furthermore, physiological responses mediated the effects of performance-based goals on performance.     

Achievement goals and intrinsic motivation: Coherence, concordance, and achievement orientation

Two studies examined the effects on intrinsic motivation of pursuing lower-order target goals in an achievement context emphasizing a performance purpose goal. The purpose goal was theorized to be concordant with intrinsic needs for individuals high in achievement motivation (HAMs), but not for individuals low in achievement motivation (LAMs). Target goals that were coherent with the overall purpose goal were hypothesized to help LAMs enjoy the task even though the purpose goal was not concordant. HAMs evidenced high enjoyment in all conditions. LAMs enjoyed the tasks most when pursuing coherent target goals. Study 2 replicated the results of Study 1 and tested process variables theorized to mediate goal effects on intrinsic motivation.