Likelihoodism,Bayesianism, and relational confirmation

Likelihoodists and Bayesians seem to have a fundamental disagreement about the proper probabilistic explication of relational (or contrastive) conceptions of evidential support (or confirmation). In this paper, I will survey some recent arguments and results in this area, with an eye toward pinpointing the nexus of the dispute. This will lead, first, to an important shift in the way the debate has been couched, and, second, to an alternative explication of relational support, which is in some sense a “middle way” between Likelihoodism and Bayesianism. In the process, I will propose some new work for an old probability puzzle: the “Monty Hall” problem. Thanks to the participants of the Philosophy, Probability, and Modeling (PPM) Seminar at the University of Konstanz (especially Stephan Hartmann, Franz Huber, Wolfgang Spohn, and Teddy Seidenfeld), for a very fruitful discussion of an early draft of this paper in July, 2004. Since then, discussions and correspondences with Prasanta Bandyopadhyay, Luc Bovens, Alan Hájek, Jim Hawthorne, Jim Joyce, Jon Kvanvig (and other participants of his “Certain Doubts” blog, which had a thread on a previous draft of this paper), Patrick Maher, Sherri Roush, Richard Royall, Elliott Sober, Dan Steel, and an anonymous referee of Synthese has been very valuable.     

Hemisphere functioning and motor imitation in autistic persons

Previous research has found that a high proportion of autistic individuals exhibit an atypical pattern of hemispheric specialization suggestive of impaired left hemisphere functioning: namely, right hemisphere dominance for both verbal and visual-spatial processing. Studies of brain-damaged persons have suggested that the left hemisphere is specialized for the use of nonverbal gesture. Since a major characteristic of autism is an impairment in the use of gesture, it was predicted that autistic persons would also show atypical hemispheric specialization for motor imitation. To test this hypothesis, hemispheric activation was measured using EEG recordings of alpha rhythm in autistic and matched normal control subjects during four motor imitation tasks. Autistic subjects showed significantly greater right hemisphere activation during the imitation tasks, than normal subjects. This pattern was particularly evident in younger autistic subjects and during oral, rather than manual, imitation tasks.     

Applied developmental psychology: Problems and prospects for an emerging discipline

Some problems and prospects for the emerging discipline of applied developmental psychology are analyzed. A working definition of applied developmental psychology is offered, along with a categorization scheme which places developmental psychologists along the basic-applied continuum. Some of the tasks that applied developmentalists can perform are listed, followed by a discussion of the boundaries of applied developmental, particularly the boundary with clinical psychology. Next, the training of applied developmental psychologists at the predoctoral and postdoctoral levels is explored. Finally, some of the professional issues that might confront applied developmentalists as the field evolves are described.     

The effects of a career course on undecided college students

The effects of a career course taught by 11 instructors (two sections each) for college students, who were undecided about a major field or career, were evaluated in a pre-post design using the Vocational Identity, Occupational Information, and Barrier scales of the My Vocational Situation (J. A. Holland, D. C. Daiger, & P. G. Power, Palo Alto, Calif.: Consulting Psychologists Press, 1980). Large main effects were observed for the Identity and Occupational Information scales, but not for the Barriers scale. No interactions by instructor or student characteristics were found by using a simple ANOVA procedure or by using a split plot factorial design. The implications for new research and career instructors were discussed.     

Tracing memory-structure activation during person judgments

The purpose of the reported research was twofold: (a) to introduce a procedure for measuring concept activation during memory-based decisions and (b) to employ the procedure to investigate memory-activation processes in social judgments. Recent research has focused on subjects' reliance on memory for earlier inferred categorizations as the basis for judgments about persons. However, subjects have also been shown to rely on memory for factual information when making such decisions. To more fully understand how social judgments are made, methods are needed that are capable of tracing concept activation during the judgment process. The present study introduces a procedure that relies on probe recognition speed as a measure of concept activation. The procedure is used to examine alternative models of how subjects activate categorical and event memory when making contemplative impression judgments (i.e., judgments that they have to justify). The results favor a dependent memory-activation model that hypothesizes subjects activate both facts and earlier categorizations that they have made about a person when making subsequent memory-based judgments. Memory-structure activation was dependent in that facts relevant to forming the early categorizations were more likely to be activated in the service of a judgment than category-irrelevant facts. Advantages and limitations of the probe procedure as a measure of memory-structure activation during decisions are discussed.     

Children's comprehension of complex sentences

Four tasks were given to children from 4–12 to test their comprehension of complex sentences containing main verbs taking underlying sentences as their complements (Sally knew that she was early). In an imperatives task, very young children interpreted only the complement verb and ignored the complex verb. In a short-term memory task, sentences with two negations usually lost the second not in recall. In direct questioning and anomaly-detection tasks, children tended to make pragmatic inferences and excessively depend on knowledge about the world, as opposed to linguistic information. Overall results showed that even sixth graders had not yet attained adult-level comprehension of complex sentences.     

Choice times and Spence's discrimination learning theory

In two experiments, rats acquired brightness discriminations in a free-operant circular runway with two response alternatives. Both individual and group choice times revealed continuous changes that were not apparent in the discrete measure of choice. Two major assumptions of Spence's discrimination learning theory were confirmed: (a) learning is continuous, and (b) discriminative stimuli in simple discrimination tasks of both simultaneous and successive types are compounds with position elements as well as elements from the relevant visual dimension. The distinctive, consistent pattern of learning revealed by the choice-time measure suggests that position habits reflect a learning strategy in which the complex task is learned as a series of simpler ones.