不确定性问题解决策略研究及存在的问题分析

通过对不确定性问题解决及认知策略方面颇有代表性的研究的回顾、分析了该领域的研究特点、现状及存在的问题。     

小学儿童合取概念的形成及其与元认知的关系

采用个别访谈与问卷相结合的方法．研究了小学四、五、六年级共48名儿童合取概念的形成及其元认知的发展。结果表明．小学儿童形成合取概念的能力发展既具有渐进性,又有不均衡性;其元认知知识水平和元认知监控能力的发展均呈现出稳中有变的趋势;各年级的元认知能力与形成合取概念的步数之间均存在非常显著的相关。     

解题策略的同质性和线性逻辑斯谛模型的拟合

为探讨线性逻辑斯谛模型（ＬＬＴＭ）的拟合条件及其和解题策略同质性之间的关系,让被试比较两个负整数指数幂的大小,发现全体被试的数据不能与拉希模型及ＬＬＴＭ相拟合。把被试按其解题策略分成不同策略组后,同一策略组被试的数据可以拟合于拉希模型,但对于ＬＬＴＭ,同一策略组的数据中部分项目的拟合较好,另外一些项目的拟合较差。这一结果表明,解题策略的同质性是ＬＬＴＭ拟合的必要条件,但还不是充分条件。     

From dialectic to organization: Bogdanov’s contribution to social theory

This paper situates Bogdanov in the context of social theory generally and socialist theory in particular. It outlines briefly the principal characteristics of his mature system, and assesses the strengths and weaknesses of his approach to the fundamental problems of social thought. The paper devotes particular attention to the problem of just how systems develop from less complex to more complex forms of organization, and evaluates Bogdanov’s solution to this problem against the background of populist, social democratic, and Leninist alternatives.     

目标设置过程的理性特征分析

本文运用个案研究方法 ,从人类理性的角度分析了企业在不同的生产经营条件下的目标设置方式 ,发现不确定性和目标难度对管理者的目标设置过程有很大的影响。在确定的 ,且任务较容易的情况下 ,目标设置是以一种与理性期望模型相一致的方式进行的 ,而在高度不确定的条件下 ,管理者则倾向于采用渐进适应的模式设置目标。对管理者的经营活动作进一步深入的分析发现 ,在高难度的任务目标情景中 ,决策者更多地从战略的层次 ,而不是从具体的层次上寻求实现目标的途径 ,从而提出了目标难度与实绩的“策略搜索层次”假设     

影响常用汉字认知速度的因素：低频冲突字、联绵词尾字和高频多音字的认和特点

以汉族大学生为被试对低频冲突字、联绵词尾字和高频多音字的认知特性进行了探索。结果发现：主要部件读音与整字读音相冲突的低频字命名反应中具有延时效应（即命名反应时延长或反应错误率升高）;对联绵词尾字和多音字的命名反应同样出现延时效应。研究支持汉字认知的多因素影响论。     

Realism,instrumentalism, and the intentional stance

One of Dennett's principal arguments for an instrumentalistic construal of intentional attributions (e.g., attributions of belief, etc.) is that such attributions are environment relative. I argue that one can and should adopt a realist perspective toward such attributions, but accommodate their environmental relativity by treating intentional properties as relational properties. By doing so one acquires a useful perspective on experimental cognitive psychology; in particular, one can overcome the temptation to treat ecological accounts and information processing accounts as incompatible alternatives and come to see them as mutually supportive. Treating intentional properties as relational may be counter-intuitive, but I provide examples of how other sciences have had to treat what seem to be intrinsic properties as relational.     

A signal detection framework for the evaluation of probabilistic forecasts

In this paper I formulate an approach for evaluating probabilistic forecasts in terms of signal detection theory. Signal detection theory provides a powerful perspective for this type of problem, and a rich empirical background including methodological tools as well as an extensive body of research in many domains. I propose procedures which emphasize the maximization of expected utility for the decision maker who uses the forecasts. Further, I suggest approaches to obtaining indices of calibration and resolution within this framework. I also present arguments that the proposed indices will exhibit the same basic properties as do decompositions of Brier's (1950, Monthly Weather Review, 78, 1–3) mean probability score. However, the properties may be reflected in different ways, and hence, the present methods may lead to different conclusions about forecasting ability. Finally, I argue that the use of an expected utility loss function makes this approach more appropriate for practical applications as well as for theoretical research than other procedures with more arbitrary loss functions.     

On optimal smoothing and derivative estimation from noisy displacement data in biomechanics

Estimating derivatives from noisy displacement data is a notoriously ill-posed problem in signal processing and biomechanics. Following the work of Wood and Jennings (1978) and Hatze (1979, 1981), the present paper describes the use of optimally regularized, natural quintic splines for estimating smoothed positions, velocities, and accelerations from equidistantly sampled, noisy position measurements. It appears that the nature of the boundary conditions of the data is of some importance, since various algorithms used hitherto result in artefacts throughout the data if the true derivatives at the record ends differ significantly from zero. Natural quintic splines do not suffer from this disadvantage below the third derivative.The ill-posed character of movement analysis has some interesting implications for movement synthesis and optimization, similar to the indeterminacy of muscular co-contraction from merely external, biomechanical measurements.