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Is the “hot‐hands” phenomenon a misperception of random events? 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Hiroto Miyoshi 《The Japanese psychological research》2000,42(2):128-133
T. Gilovich, R. Vallone, and A. Tversky (1985) asked whether the so-called hot-hands phenomenon – a temporary elevation of the probability of successful shots – actually exists in basketball. They concluded that hot-hands are misperceived random events. This paper re-examines the truth of their conclusion. The present study's main concern was the sensitivity of the statistical tests used in Gilovich et al.'s research. Simulated records of shots over a season were used. These represented many different situations and players, but they always contained at least one hot-hand period. The issue was whether Gilovich et al.'s tests were sensitive enough to detect the hot-hands embedded in the records. The study found that this sensitivity depends on the frequency of hot-hand periods, the total number of shots in all hot-hand periods, the number of shots in each hot-hand period, and the size of the increase in the probability of successful shots in hot-hand periods. However, when the values of those variables were set realistically, on average the tests could detect only about 12% of the hot-hands phenomena. 相似文献
3.
In the present study, we investigated the phenomenological characteristics of distant trauma memories and the relationship between the vividness of trauma memories, the centrality of event and symptoms of posttraumatic stress in two groups with different types of trauma exposure, namely survivors and bereaved, from the fire on the passenger ferry, Scandinavian Star, 26 years earlier. More than two decades after the fire, the traumatic event was represented as a vivid, emotional recollection for many of the victims. For both the survivors and the bereaved, a higher degree of vividness of trauma memories and centrality of the event were associated with higher levels of posttraumatic stress. The present findings show that even very distant trauma memories can be represented as vivid recollections. Furthermore, the findings suggest that both vividness of trauma memories and event centrality may contribute to explain how posttraumatic stress reactions can remain present over a very long time. 相似文献
4.
Larissa L. Wieczorek Cyril S. Tata Lars Penke Tanja M. Gerlach 《Personal Relationships》2020,27(1):176-208
Event history calendars (EHCs) are popular tools for retrospective data collection. Originally conceptualized as face‐to‐face interviews, EHCs contain various questions about the respondents' autobiography in order to use their experiences as cues to facilitate remembering. For relationship researchers, EHCs are particularly valuable when trying to reconstruct the relational past of individuals. However, although many studies are conducted online nowadays, no freely available online adaptation of the EHC is available yet. In this tutorial, detailed instructions are provided on how to implement an online EHC for the reconstruction of romantic relationship histories within the open‐source framework formr. Ways to customize the online EHC and provide a template for researchers to adapt the tool for their own purposes are showcased. 相似文献
5.
Kui Wang Yan‐li Zhao Shu‐ping Tan Jin‐guo Zhang Dong Li Jing‐xu Chen Li‐gang Zhang Xin‐yang Yu Dan Zhao Eric F. C. Cheung Bruce I. Turetsky Ruben C. Gur Raymond C. K. Chan 《PsyCh Journal》2020,9(2):247-257
Impairment in semantic association has been reported in bipolar disorder (BD) and schizophrenia (SZ) patients and could underlie abnormal speech patterns in both disorders. In this study, we compared the electrophysiological semantic processing features in patients with these two disorders. Participants (n = 61; BD = 19; SZ = 19; healthy controls [HCs] = 23) were administered a semantic judgment task and event‐related potentials (ERPs) were recorded. Responses of the two patient groups were significantly slower than HCs, but comparable behavioral semantic priming effects were observed in both patient groups. The N400 priming effect was observed in all groups, with a delayed peak in the two patient groups. The N400 effect was enhanced for both BD and SZ patients over the left frontal and frontal pole region, but SZ patients showed additional reduction of N400 over the right posterior and occipital regions. The N400 mean amplitudes for related targets correlated with less severe negative symptoms in patients with SZ. Discriminant functional analysis using reaction time and N400 measures successfully classified 82% of the participants into their respective clinical groups. These results suggest that patients with BD and SZ have both overlapping and distinctive semantic processing dysfunction. These findings are consistent with the continuum conceptualization of these disorders, but also offer some support for the traditional Kraepelinian dichotomy. 相似文献
6.
Algebras of Intervals and a Logic of Conditional Assertions 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Intervals in boolean algebras enter into the study of conditional assertions (or events) in two ways: directly, either from intuitive arguments or from Goodman, Nguyen and Walker's representation theorem, as suitable mathematical entities to bear conditional probabilities, or indirectly, via a representation theorem for the family of algebras associated with de Finetti's three-valued logic of conditional assertions/events. Further representation theorems forge a connection with rough sets. The representation theorems and an equivalent of the boolean prime ideal theorem yield an algebraic completeness theorem for the three-valued logic. This in turn leads to a Henkin-style completeness theorem. Adequacy with respect to a family of Kripke models for de Finetti's logic, ukasiewicz's three-valued logic and Priest's Logic of Paradox is demonstrated. The extension to first-order yields a short proof of adequacy for Körner's logic of inexact predicates. 相似文献
7.
The research reported here focuses on the early acquisition of event structure in German. Based on longitudinal studies from 5 normally developing (ND) and 6 language-impaired (LI) children, a model of "event structural bootstrapping" is presented that spells out how ND children log into the verb lexicon. They project a target-consistent event tree, depicting the head-of-event of transitions. Young LI children, failing to employ this bootstrapping strategy, resort to radically underspecified event representations. The results from a truth-value judgment experiment with 16 ND and 16 LI children showed that ND children perform correctly on transitional verbs, while LI children perform at chance level on the same tasks. These findings are accounted for by the model of event structural bootstrapping to the extent that LI children lack an explicit representation of the head-of-event. 相似文献
8.
《Journal of motor behavior》2013,45(6):447-453
The authors manipulated the width of a timing target in continuous circle drawing to determine whether a more stringent spatial-timing criterion would produce an increase in participants' (N = 30) temporal variability. They also examined the effect of the computational method of determining cycle duration. There was no effect of spatial precision on temporal variability in circle drawing, and tapping and circle drawing were found to use the same criterion. Those findings lend strong support to the earlier view of R. B. Ivry, R. M. Spencer, H. N. Zelaznik, and J. Diedrichsen (2002), who argued that continuous tasks such as circle drawing are timed differently from discrete-like tasks such as tapping. Therefore, the results of the present study provide support for the event and emergent timing frameworks. 相似文献
9.
Ruida Zhu Zhenhua Xu Honghong Tang Jiting Liu Huanqing Wang Ying An 《Cognition & emotion》2019,33(4):696-708
Numerous studies have found that shame increases individuals’ anger at others. However, according to recent theories about the social function of shame and anger at others, it is possible that shame controls individuals’ anger at others in specific conditions. We replicated previous findings that shame increased individuals’ anger at others’ unfairness, when others were not aware of the individual’s experience of shameful events. We also found for the first time that shame controlled or even decreased individuals’ anger at others’ unfairness, when others were aware of the individual’s experience of shameful events. The results were consistent when shame was induced by either a recall paradigm or an imagination paradigm, and in either the ultimatum game or the dictator game. This suggests that shame strategically controls individuals’ anger at others to demonstrate that they are willing to benefit others, when facing the risk of social exclusion. Our findings highlight the interpersonal function of shame and deepen the understanding of the relationship between shame and anger at others. 相似文献
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