Selecting a new technology strategy using multiattribute,multilevel decision trees

Research indicates that selecting a strategy to best exploit a new technology is a complex decision-making process. The task involves making a series of decisions with multiple alternatives, each to be evaluated by multiple criteria whose values have high levels of uncertainty. This paper presents a methodology for modelling a new technology decision using decision trees and an optimizing algorithm. A problem of a mining company considering the adoption of new technology is used to illustrate the decision-making task and modelling methodology. A numerical solution to the case demonstrates the potential of the optimizing technique in strategy selection.     

易学思想与中国传统建筑

本文从卦象、易数与阴阳合德三方面论述了易学思想与中国传统建筑之间不可分割的联系,中国建筑作为中华文明的重要组成部分,其本源是来自<周易>,与易学思想的发展变化密切相关.     

The law of large numbers in children's diversity-based reasoning

Adults increase the certainty of their inductive inferences by observing more diverse instances. However, most young children fail to do so. The present study tested the hypothesis that children's sensitivity to instance diversity is determined by three variables: ability to discriminate among instances (Discrimination); an intuition that large numbers of instances increase the strength of conclusion (Monotonicity); ability to detect subcategories and evaluate numerical differences between the subcategories, or Extraction. A total of 219 Chinese children aged 6 to 11 were tested for sensitivity to diversity by means of Discrimination, Monotonicity, and Extraction. The results indicated that children at all ages were able to discriminate instances and attend to set size. However, only 9- and 11-year-olds demonstrated Extraction and sensitivity to diversity. Furthermore, among all children diversity scores increased linearly with the level of Extraction. These results suggest that the law of large numbers plays a role in children's diversity-based reasoning.     

略论《周易》对中国古代历法的影响--兼与李申先生商榷

在古代历法的发展过程中,<周易>起了积极的作用,而且这种作用在不同时期有着不同的特征.早期主要表现为用易数解释历数,这种作用在唐以后逐渐消失;"卦气说"曾在一段时期内被作为历法的内容;而<周易>的"治历明时"思想对于历法研究一直起着积极的作用,成为重要的治历原则之一.无论如何,<周易>对于古代历法发展的作用是不可低估的.