Subjective probability and delay.

Human subjects indicated their preference between a hypothetical $1,000 reward available with various probabilities or delays and a certain reward of variable amount available immediately. The function relating the amount of the certain-immediate reward subjectively equivalent to the delayed $1,000 reward had the same general shape (hyperbolic) as the function found by Mazur (1987) to describe pigeons' delay discounting. The function relating the certain-immediate amount of money subjectively equivalent to the probabilistic $1,000 reward was also hyperbolic, provided that the stated probability was transformed to odds against winning. In a second experiment, when human subjects chose between a delayed $1,000 reward and a probabilistic $1,000 reward, delay was proportional to the same odds-against transformation of the probability to which it was subjectively equivalent.     

Examining children's ability to delay reward: Is the delay discounting task a suitable measure?

Discounting the value of delayed rewards has primarily been measured in children with the delay of gratification task and in adolescents and adults with the delay discounting task. In the present study, we assessed the suitability of the delay discounting task as a measure of temporal discounting in children. A sample of 7- to 9-year-olds (N = 98) completed a delay discounting task, a delay of gratification task, a sensation seeking measure, and IQ measures. In addition, teacher-based assessments of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder traits were measured. The results indicated that the majority of children produced meaningful data on the discounting task and discounted rewards hyperbolically. Children with an elevated risk of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder showed a trend towards discounting future rewards on the delay discounting task more steeply than did those at low risk. However, delay discounting was unrelated to either delay of gratification or sensation seeking. We interpret these results as providing some support for the use of delay discounting as a measure of intertemporal choice in children, although the results also suggest that delay discounting and delay of gratification tasks may tap different processes in this population.     

问题启动对跨时选择的影响研究

本研究采用2×3混合实验设计,通过控制时间距离和表征的建构水平,对不同问题启动下的跨时选择进行对比研究。实验结果显示,问题启动是影响跨时选择的重要因素,不同问题启动下的未来结果价值折扣存在显著差异。Why问题启动使个体的时间距离敏感度降低,How问题启动使个体的时间距离敏感度提高。     

Delay Discounting as a Function of Intrinsic/Extrinsic Religiousness,Religious Fundamentalism,and Regular Church Attendance

Delay discounting occurs when the subjective value of an outcome decreases because its delivery is delayed. Previous research has suggested that the rate at which some, but not all, outcomes are discounted varies as a function of regular church attendance. In the present study, 509 participants completed measures of intrinsic religiousness, extrinsic religiousness, religious fundamentalism, and whether they regularly attended church services. They then completed a delay-discounting task involving five outcomes. Although religiousness was not a significant predictor of discounting for all outcomes, participants scoring high in intrinsic religiousness tended to display less delay discounting than participants scoring low. Likewise, participants scoring high in religious fundamentalism tended to display more delay discounting than participants scoring low. These results partially replicate previous ones in showing that the process of discounting may vary as a function of religiousness. The results also provide some direction for those interested in altering how individuals discount.     

Sex differences in the effects of disinhibition,perceived peer drinking,and delay discounting on drinking among Japanese college students

Disinhibition, perceived peer drinking, and delay discounting are considered significant predictors of drinking in young adults. This study examined whether perceived peer drinking and delay discounting mediate the association between disinhibition and drinking for young men and women. In this study, 258 Japanese college students (109 men and 149 women, mean age 19.17 (SD = 1.20) years old) completed a self-administered questionnaire that included four measures—the disinhibition subscale of the Sensation Seeking Scale for Japanese Adolescents, the proportion of friends who drink as an index of perceived peer drinking behaviors, the Monetary Choice Questionnaire, and participants’ own drinking behavior. In the multiple mediator models analyzed using structural equation modeling, for both sexes, perceived peer drinking had the largest direct effect on participants’ drinking, followed by disinhibition and delay discounting. However, the results of mediation analyses indicated that perceived peer drinking mediated the association between disinhibition and drinking for only women. The results of this study imply that it is important to consider sex differences in the association between personality traits and peer influence to develop programs aiming to reduce drinking among young adults in Japan.     

Short-term gains, long-term pains: How cues about state aid learning in dynamic environments

Successful investors seeking returns, animals foraging for food, and pilots controlling aircraft all must take into account how their current decisions will impact their future standing. One challenge facing decision makers is that options that appear attractive in the short-term may not turn out best in the long run. In this paper, we explore human learning in a dynamic decision making task which places short- and long-term rewards in conflict. Our goal in these studies was to evaluate how people’s mental representation of a task affects their ability to discover an optimal decision strategy. We find that perceptual cues that readily align with the underlying state of the task environment help people overcome the impulsive appeal of short-term rewards. Our experimental manipulations, predictions, and analyses are motivated by current work in reinforcement learning which details how learners value delayed outcomes in sequential tasks and the importance that “state” identification plays in effective learning.     

心理距离视角下的行为决策

决策是指决策者对将产生不同结果的多个备择方案的评估与选择。无论决策结果涉及的是金钱、健康、环境或是其他事物,它们都同时具有多重属性,如发生的概率,发生的时间,发生的地点,发生在谁身上等,这些属性会和结果量一起影响人们对结果效用的评价和对备择方案的选择。以往有关风险决策、跨期决策和社会决策的理论分别探究结果的概率属性、时间属性和人际属性如何与结果量一起共同决定人们的效用评估与选择,并提出了各自不同的决策模型。然而,心理距离理论则认为,决策结果的概率、时间、空间、人际等属性本质上都可被表征为结果在决策者心中的心理距离。这意味着风险、跨期和社会决策模型有可能经由心理距离而得以统一。近几年来,众多研究围绕这一思想开展了一系列实验研究,分析了各种心理距离的同质性,探索了基于心理距离的心理折扣现象及其规律,探讨了时间、概率、人际、空间距离对个体决策的影响。在此基础上,未来研究还应更加重视对多特征决策的研究,探索心理距离之间的替换率和通币问题,探究心理距离的本质及其整合方式,以期形成统一的决策理论模型。