Education and Social Trust: Testing a Causal Hypothesis Using the Discordant Twin Design

One of the clearest results in previous studies on social trust is the robust positive relationship with educational attainment. The most common interpretation is that education has a causal effect on social trust. The theoretical argument and empirical results in this article suggest a different interpretation. We argue that common preadult factors such as cognitive abilities and personality traits rooted in genes and early‐life family environment may confound the relationship between educational attainment and social trust. We provide new evidence on this question by utilizing the quasi‐experiment of twinning. By looking at the relationship between education and social trust within monozygotic (MZ) twin pairs, we are able to avoid potential confounders rooted in genetic factors and common environmental influences because the monozygotic twins share both. The results suggest that when controlling for such familial factors the estimated effects of education on social trust are close to zero and far from reaching statistical significance. Further analyses show that the relationship between education and social trust largely is driven by common genetic factors.     

The Behavioral Logic of Collective Action: Partisans Cooperate and Punish More Than Nonpartisans

Laboratory experiments indicate that many people willingly contribute to public goods and punish free riders at a personal cost. We hypothesize that these individuals, called strong reciprocators, allow political parties to overcome collective action problems, thereby allowing those organizations to compete for scarce resources and to produce public goods for like‐minded individuals. Using a series of laboratory games, we examine whether partisans contribute to public goods and punish free riders at a greater rate than nonpartisans. The results show that partisans are more likely than nonpartisans to contribute to public goods and to engage in costly punishment. Given the broad theoretical literature on altruistic punishment and group selection as well as our own formal evolutionary model, we hypothesize that it is being a partisan that makes an individual more likely to be a strong reciprocator and not vice versa.     

Brand growth in packaged goods markets: Ten cases with common patterns

The study examines 10 consumer goods brands that grew market share year on year, to identify if there are commonalities in the way that key brand performance metrics change during growth. The study uses consumer panel data from the UK and USA. Ten brands in a range of categories are examined. Brand metrics of penetration, repeat‐purchase loyalty, cross‐purchasing by other brand's buyers, the distribution of purchase frequency, and the brand's market share within buyer subgroups are analyzed. The principal findings are as follows: (1) as these brands grew, brand penetration increased far more than repeat‐purchase loyalty on average; (2) the most apparent change in the buyer base was the big increase in light or infrequent buyers; (3) they induced more cross‐purchasing from most or all other competitor brands' buyers; and (4) they grew their market share in all buyer demographic groups. Implications are that brand growth strategies should be geared towards enlarging the size of the customer base, with less emphasis on boosting loyalty. The results also suggest that specifically targeting certain sorts of buyers may be counterproductive. These findings challenge traditional assumptions in relation to brand growth and success. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Problem formulation for multi-criteria decision analysis: report of a workshop

This paper reports on a workshop on Problem Formulation in Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis held at SPUDM97. The focus of the workshop was the problem formulation phase which occurs between the analyst meeting a person with a ‘mess’ and the time he or she begins to analyse a structured problem with several alternatives scored against several attributes or criteria. The objectives were: to share experience on procedures which might be transferable between the methodologies; to demonstrate different skills used by the analyst in structuring decision problems; and to catalyse a discussion on the problem formulation phase of an analysis. Three analysts, who generally approach problems using multiattribute methods, addressed the same problem. The problem used was constructed to be realistic to three decision makers, who had been trained in the issues of concern. There were two sessions. Each analyst was assigned a decision maker and formulated the problem independently in the first session, held in parallel. They were each observed by two observers and many of the audience at the workshop. The three formulations were presented along with the comments of the observers and discussed at a second plenary session. This paper reports the three formulations and observations, remarking on the ‘tricks of the trade’ employed by the analysts in formulating the problem. The analysts also describe their thinking and their aims in adopting their approach and style of interaction. More general remarks on the process of decision analysis are also offered. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Examining the cross‐cultural validity of the positive affect and negative affect schedule between an Asian (Singaporean) sample and a Western (American) sample

The positive affect and negative affect schedule (PANAS) is a popular measure of positive (PA) and negative affectivity (NA). Developed and validated in Western contexts, the 20‐item scale has been frequently administered on respondents from Asian countries with the assumption of cross‐cultural measurement invariance. We examine this assumption via a rigorous multigroup confirmatory factor analysis, which allows us to assess between‐group differences in both strength of scale item‐to‐latent factor relationship (metric invariance test) and mean of each scale item (scalar invariance test), on a large sample of 1,065 respondents recruited from Singapore (Asian sample) and the United States (Western sample). We found that two items assessing PA (“excited” and “proud”) and three items assessing NA (“guilty,” “hostile,” and “ashamed”) exhibited metric noninvariance whereas 11 of the remaining metric invariant items exhibited scalar noninvariance, suggesting that the PA and NA constructs differ from what the PANAS is expected to measure for Asian respondents. Our findings serve as a cautionary note to researchers who intend to administer the PANAS in future studies as well as to researchers interpreting the results of past studies involving respondents from Asian countries.     

Experience and validity of clinical judgment: The illusory correlation

Mental health experts often justify diagnostic and predictive judgments on the basis of “years of experience” with a particular type of person. Justification by experience is common in legal settings, and can have profound consequences for the person about whom such judgments are made. However, research shows that the validity of clinical judgment and amount of clinical experience are unrelated. The role of experience in learning varies as a function of what is to be learned. Experiments show that learning conceptual categories depends upon: (1) the learner's having clear hypotheses about the possible rule for category membership prior to receiving feedback about which instances belong to the category, and, (2) the systematic nature of such feedback, especially about erroneous categorizations. Since neither of these conditions is satisfied in clinical contexts in psychology, the subsequent failure of experience per se to enhance diagnostic or predictive validity is unsurprising. Claims that “I can tell on the basis of my experience with people of a particular type (e.g., child abusers) that this person is of that type (e.g., a child abuser)” are simply invalid.     

Patterns of buyer behavior and brand metrics in a “high loyalty” category: Liquor

This study examines behavioral brand loyalty in a category that, based on industry evidence, is expected to exhibit high loyalty: liquor (distilled spirits). The study aims to extend knowledge of the factors that underlie behavioral loyalty, including brand characteristics of price level and promotion incidence, and buyer characteristics of age and income. Drawing on theory and evidence relating to prospect theory, the “smart shopper” concept, as well as literature pertaining to age and loyalty, we develop a series of hypotheses and test them using extensive consumer panel purchasing data for US households. The analysis confirms that liquor is indeed a high loyalty category in the context of consumer goods, evidenced via high share of category requirements (SCR). The study also identifies that liquor brands follow the double jeopardy pattern, whereby larger-share brands enjoy somewhat higher loyalty, and that exceptions—brands with unusually high or low volume loyalty for their size—are related to high volume purchased per occasion. In turn, there is a strong negative association between brand price and high average volume purchased per occasion (i.e., cheaper brands are bought in larger quantity or volume than expensive ones). The study also finds that brands with a low price tend to be particularly attractive to low-income households, and that, in turn, low-income households exhibit higher brand loyalty. These new findings contribute to the literature on brand loyalty and the links between loyalty, brand characteristics, and demographics.