“Inference versus consequence” revisited: inference, consequence, conditional, implication

Inference versus consequence, an invited lecture at the LOGICA 1997 conference at Castle Liblice, was part of a series of articles for which I did research during a Stockholm sabbatical in the autumn of 1995. The article seems to have been fairly effective in getting its point across and addresses a topic highly germane to the Uppsala workshop. Owing to its appearance in the LOGICA Yearbook 1997, Filosofia Publishers, Prague, 1998, it has been rather inaccessible. Accordingly it is republished here with only bibliographical changes and an afterword.     

Examination of the bidirectional influences of leisure activity and memory in old people: A dissociative effect on episodic memory

The present study examined the relationships between different types of social and cognitive activities and different types of episodic and semantic memory. A total of 794 adult men and women from five age cohorts (aged 65–85 at baseline), participating in the longitudinal Betula project on ageing, memory, and health, were included in the study. The participants were studied over 10 years (1995–2005) in three waves. Recognition and recall were used as episodic memory tasks, and knowledge and verbal fluency as semantic memory tasks. The results, after controlling for age, gender, education, and some diseases, including heart disease and hypertension, as covariates, showed unidirectional effects of social activity on episodic memory on all test occasions (β = .10). Also, episodic memory predicted change in cognitive activity for all test waves (β = .21–.22). Findings suggest that social activity can be seen as protective factor against memory decline. It also seems that episodic memory performance is a predictor of cognitive activity in old people. However, the opposite direction does not hold true.     

Dimensionality of stress experiences: Factorial structure of the Perceived Stress Questionnaire (PSQ) in a population‐based Swedish sample

We investigated the factorial structure of the Perceived Stress Questionnaire (PSQ‐recent; Levenstein, Prantera, Varvo et al., 1993) in a large (N = 1516; 35–95 years) population‐based Swedish sample (Nilsson, Adolfsson, Bäckman et al., 2004; Nilsson, Bäckman, Erngrund et al., 1997). Exploratory principal components analysis (PCA) was conducted on a first, randomly drawn subsample (n = 506). Next, the model based on the PCA was tested in a second sample (n = 505). Finally, a third sample (n = 505) was used to cross‐validate the model. Five components were extracted in the PCA (eigenvalue > 1) and labeled “Demands,” “Worries/Tension,” “Lack of joy,” “Conflict,” and “Fatigue,” respectively. Twenty‐one out of the 30 original PSQ items were retained in a confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) model that included the five (first‐order) factors and, additionally, a general (second‐order) stress factor, not considered in prior models. The model showed reasonable goodness of fit [χ²(184) = 511.2, p < 0.001; CFI = 0.904; RMSEA = 0.059; and SRMR = 0.063]. Multigroup confirmatory factor analyses supported the validity of the established model. The results are discussed in relation to prior investigations of the factorial structure of the PSQ.     

Sex differences in cognition are stable over a 10-year period in adulthood and old age

Sex differences in declarative memory and visuospatial ability are robust in cross-sectional studies. The present longitudinal study examined whether sex differences in cognition were present over a 10-year period, and whether age modified the magnitude of sex differences. Tests assessing episodic and semantic memory, and visuospatial ability were administered to 625 nondemented adults (initially aged 35-80 years), participating in the population-based Betula study at two follow-up occasions. There was stability of sex differences across five age groups and over a 10-year period. Women performed at a higher level than men on episodic recall, face and verbal recognition, and semantic fluency, whereas men performed better than women on a task-assessing, visuospatial ability. Sex differences in cognitive functions are stable over a 10-year period and from 35 to 90 years of age.     

Verified hormone therapy improves episodic memory performance in healthy postmenopausal women

Studies of hormone therapy (HT) and cognition have yielded conflicting results. The aim of this observational study was to examine the effect of estradiol, via serum verified HT (estradiol, estriol, progesterone) and endogenous estradiol, on 108 healthy postmenopausal women's cognitive performance. The results demonstrated that the 43 HT-users performed at a significantly higher level than non-users on episodic memory tasks and on a verbal fluency task, whereas HT-users and non-users did not differ on tasks assessing semantic memory and spatial visualization. In addition, there was a positive relationship between serum estradiol level and episodic memory performance, indicating that postmenopausal HT is associated with enhanced episodic memory and verbal fluency, independent of age and education. These observational results suggest that HT use may be sufficient to exert small, yet positive effects on female sensitive cognitive tasks. Hormone therapy compliance and formulation is discussed as confounding factors in previous research.     

Task-order coordination in dual-task performance and the lateral prefrontal cortex: an event-related fMRI study

A crucial demand in dual tasks suffering from a capacity limited processing mechanism is task-order scheduling, i.e. the control of the order in which the two component tasks are processed by this limited processing mechanism. The present study aims to test whether the lateral prefrontal cortex (LPFC) is associated with this demand. For this, 15 participants performed a psychological refractory paradigm (PRP) type dual task in an event-related functional magnetic resonance (fMRI) experiment. In detail, two choice reaction tasks, a visual (response with right hand) and an auditory (response with left hand), were presented with a temporal offset of 200 ms, while the participants were required to respond to the tasks in the order of their presentation. Importantly, the presentation order of the tasks changed randomly. Based on previous evidence, we argue that trials in which the present task order changed as compared to the previous trial (different-order trials) impose higher demands on task coordination than same-order trials do. The analyses showed that cortical areas along the posterior part of the left inferior frontal sulcus as well as the right posterior middle frontal gyrus were more strongly activated in different-order than in same-order trials, thus supporting the conclusion that one function of the LPFC for dual-task performance is the temporal coordination of two tasks. Furthermore, it is discussed that the present findings favour the active scheduling over the passive queuing hypothesis of dual-task processing.     

Comorbidity in youth with specific phobias: Impact of comorbidity on treatment outcome and the impact of treatment on comorbid disorders

The purpose of the present study was twofold. In an analysis of data from an existing randomized control trial of brief cognitive behavioral treatment on specific phobias (One-Session Treatment, OST; Ollendick et al., 2009), we examined 1) the effect of comorbid specific phobias and other anxiety disorders on treatment outcomes, and 2) the effect of treatment of the specific phobia on these co-occurring disorders. These relations were explored in 100 youth presenting with animal, natural environment, situational, and “other” types of phobia. Youth were reliably diagnosed with the Anxiety Disorders Interview Schedule for DSM-IV: Child and Parent versions (Silverman & Albano, 1996). Clinician severity ratings at post-treatment and 6-month follow-up were examined as were parent and child treatment outcome satisfaction measures. Results indicated that the presence of comorbid phobias or anxiety disorders did not affect treatment outcomes; moreover, treatment of the targeted specific phobias led to significant reductions in the clinical severity of other co-occurring specific phobias and related anxiety disorders. These findings speak to the generalization of the effects of this time-limited treatment approach. Implications for treatment of principal and comorbid disorders are discussed, and possible mechanisms for these effects are commented upon.     

Mathematical constraints and the tulving-wiseman law: A Rejoinder

Abstract

Hintzman (1991; 1992) has claimed that the reason data points approximate the recognition failure function discovered by Tulving and Wiseman (1975) is that they are mathematically constrained to do so, and the reason that a few data points do not approximate the function, but are exceptions to it, is that these data points are less subject to mathematical constraints. He has additionally argued that such exceptions are more likely with low levels of recall and strong underlying sources of positive covariance. We provide empirical evidence relevant to this mathematical model using 301 observations from a database of all relevant experimental conditions published between 1973 and 1992 (Nilsson & Gardiner, 1993). We conclude that mathematical constraints have only a minor influence on the function, not the causal role assigned to them in Hintzman's (1992) model. By our account, both the function and exceptions to it reflect a single psychological principle, the functional effectiveness of contextual cues.