化学致癌机制的系统科学方法思考

本文用系统科学方法分析了化学物致癌机制，化学致癌是一个长期的，多基因，多阶段，多病因过程已被公认，研究者们认为化学致癌系统由基因和非基因因素构成，在此系统中存在若干系统属性，如整体性，综合性，动态性等，医学研究者要在癌症病因，治疗和预防中取得的半功倍成效，就应该科学地运用致癌系统中的这些系统属性。     

A new goodness-of-fit measure for probit models: Surrogate R2

Probit models are used extensively for inferential purposes in the social sciences as discrete data are prevalent in a vast body of social studies. Among many accompanying model inference problems, a critical question remains unsettled: how to develop a goodness-of-fit measure that resembles the ordinary least square (OLS) R² used for linear models. Such a measure has long been sought to achieve ‘comparability’ of different empirical models across multiple samples addressing similar social questions. To this end, we propose a novel R² measure for probit models using the notion of surrogacy – simulating a continuous variable $S$ as a surrogate of the original discrete response (Liu & Zhang, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 113, 845 and 2018). The proposed R² is the proportion of the variance of the surrogate response explained by explanatory variables through a linear model, and we call it a surrogate R². This paper shows both theoretically and numerically that the surrogate R² approximates the OLS R² based on the latent continuous variable, preserves the interpretation of explained variation, and maintains monotonicity between nested models. As no other pseudo R², McKelvey and Zavoina's and McFadden's included, can meet all the three criteria simultaneously, our measure fills this crucial void in probit model inference.     

大乘佛学的融摄与超越--略论唐君毅先生对中国佛教思想发展历程的诠释

唐君毅以中国大乘佛学为建构中国哲学史的质料,有关佛学研究之内容,尤其是对华严宗法藏大师以最为精深的义理化解融摄各家的精粹,超越各家的矛盾以及佛教大乘教派初传中国时的"水土不服"的弊端,以及由此必然生起的圆融无碍的包容心态,而集中国佛学发展之大成的论述,唐君毅有自己独到的见解.融摄与超越也是他哲学思想体系的一个重要特征.     

继承语在美国的发展及其原因

继承语是移民社会的特殊现象.在英语为通用语言的美国社会中,继承语学习者和继承语之间存在着亲缘关系.本文回顾了近年来继承语在美国的发展,指出继承语项目能够维护语言生态,顺应人口变化,促进族裔认同,调整语言关系,将成为美国语言教育的新方向.     

浅论宗教组织与社会运动——以前东德新教教会主导的独立和平运动为例

参与和推动草根社会运动,是宗教组织影响国家政治的重要途径,在东欧剧变过程中,各种宗教组织积极推进的社会政治运动是造成社会主义政权更迭不可忽视的因素。本文以冷战时期,民主德国新教路德宗教会主导的独立和平运动为例,分析教会如何对国家的社会政治议程产生影响。笔者认为,前东德教会在独立和平运动中角色和立场的转变,以及它对民主德国政治安全造成的挑战,并非单向的威胁,而是政教双方,以及社会环境共同造成的压力下的结果。     

古代杭州的佛道教医药学

古代杭州佛教寺院医药、僧侣医师医技、寺院药材、中外佛教医药交流均有各自特点.道教与中医药学关系更为密切,道家的葛洪在杭州留下的足迹,巳成为当今杭城中医药学的名胜古迹.因此,我们窥探古代杭州佛道教医药学发展脉络,理其异同,昭其精华,恩泽后代,意义非浅.     

虚拟与"虚拟实在"

"虚拟"是这个时代的热门词,也是当下文化的关键词.在三亿多的网民中,很多人见面时的问候语从"吃过没有"变为"魔兽了吗"抑或"摘菜了没有",网络虚拟生活已经成为国人乃至世人一种必不可少的生活方式.二十年前美国学者迈克海姆写过一本关于虚拟实在的书,大约十年前引入国内,引发了国内学者关于"虚拟实在"的研究和讨论.但由于当时国内的信息技术尚未普及,网民数量稀少,所以他的书和这场讨论未能引起社会轰动并深入持久下去.如今恰逢读网时代,我们重拾"虚拟实在",重新探讨它的形而上以及与"虚拟"的区别与联系,因为它是我们在谈及当下文化时绝不能回避和忽略的问题.     

A population study of low-rate smokers: quitting history and instability over time.

This study used 1 longitudinal and 2 cross-seconal population surveys to compare stability of low-rate daily smokers (less than 5 cigarettes per day) with other daily smokers and occasional smokers. Few low-rate smokers maintained consumption level; 36% retained smoking status after 20 months, compared with 82% and 44% for regular daily and occasional smokers, respectively. In a dynamic process, established smokers quit smoking and/or modified (decreased or increased) consumption. Low-rate and occasional smokers quit at higher rates than regular daily smokers (odds ratios 3:1) but were replenished by new members, many converted from regular daily smoker. The overall trend is an increasing proportion of low-consumption smokers while smoking prevalence declines. The dynamic process has implications for tobacco control efforts and for addiction theory.     

事业单位公开招聘考试新题型预试研究

事业单位的人才突出专业性,招考必须采用不同于公务员考试等大型考试的新题型,该研究探索事业单位考试新题型的有效性.方法:按照事业单位构成比例,选取220位事业单位在职人员进行模拟考试,考后请考生填写调查表.结果表明:新题型总体对于考生来说难度适中,区分度比较高,个别题型如文稿校对难度偏大以致区分度降低；所有新题型的α系数中等,符合大型考试特点；管理岗和专业技术岗的新题型因素分析分别得到三个因素,但其构成有别；专业技术岗和管理岗考生成绩相当,但都好于工勤岗；新题型无法区分考生的资历.因此,新题型是有效的,可用于事业单位招聘考试,但进一步的完善是必要的.