Counterfactual reasoning and the problem of selecting antecedent scenarios

A recent group of social scientists have argued that counterfactual questions play an essential role in their disciplines, and that it is possible to have rigorous methods to investigate them. Unfortunately, there has been little (if any) interaction between these social scientists and the philosophers who have long held that rigorous counterfactual reasoning is possible. In this paper, I hope to encourage some fresh thinking on both sides by creating new connections between them. I describe what I term “problem of selecting antecedent scenarios,” and show that this is an essential challenge in real-life counterfactual reasoning. Then, I demonstrate that the major extant theories of counterfactuals (especially the Lewis/Stalnaker theory and Igal Kvart’s rival account) are unable to solve this problem. I show that there are instances of real-life counterfactual reasoning in the social sciences that are counterexamples to both of these accounts. And finally, I develop a new theory of how to select antecedent scenarios that overcomes these difficulties, and so would be part of a more adequate theory of counterfactuals (and counterfactual reasoning).     

Longitudinal Test of Forgiveness and Perceived Forgiveness as Mediators between Religiosity and Marital Satisfaction in Long-Term Marital Relationships

Abstract

Substantial research has found relations between religiosity and martial satisfaction. More longitudinal studies are needed to understand the inner-workings of this relationship. Over a four-year period, dyadic data from 331 married couples was used to test the longitudinal mediating effects of spousal forgiveness and partners’ perceptions of spousal forgiveness between religiosity and marital satisfaction. Husbands’ religiosity was associated with increases in wives’ marital satisfaction but the measures of forgiveness were not significant mediators in this relationship. Wives’ religiosity was predictive of lower levels of wives’ perceptions of spousal forgiveness, which led to decreases in both wives’ and husbands’ marital satisfaction.     

Action-control beliefs and behaviors as predictors of change in adjustment across the transition to middle school

Abstract

We examined longitudinal changes in young adolescents’ (N=368) action-control beliefs, coping behaviors, and adjustment (i.e., positive and negative affect, depression, aggression) across the transition from elementary school to middle school. Results indicated greater inter-individual instability in adjustment during this transition than during the previous school year. Using ordinary least-squares (OLS) growth models to extract intra-individual change scores for each variable (i.e., slopes and intercepts), we conducted a series of stepwise regressions to determine which features of control beliefs and coping behaviors best predicted changes in adjustment across the transition to middle school. We found that negative coping behaviors (i.e., antisocial coping) consistently predicted negative changes in the adjustment variables (e.g., greater depression, more aggression), whereas positive beliefs and behaviors did not consistently predict changes in the adjustment variables.     

The Gettier Intuition from South America to Asia

Journal of Indian Council of Philosophical Research - This article examines whether people share the Gettier intuition (viz. that someone who has a true justified belief that p may nonetheless fail...     

The Cambridge handbook of consciousness

The Psychological Record -     

Word shape's in poor shape for the race to the lexicon

Current models of fluent reading often assume that fast and automatic word recognition involves the use of a supraletter feature corresponding to the envelope or shape of the word when it is printed in lowercase. The advantages of mixed case over pure case and of pure lowercase over pure uppercase have often been taken as evidence favoring the word-shape hypothesis. Alternative explanations for these phenomena are offered. Experiment 1 shows that previous demonstrations of word-shape effects during proofreading are better described as individual letter effects. Experiments 2-4 explore the possibility that word shape facilitates lexical access through uncertainty reduction. In all three experiments performance on words with rare shapes is compared to those with common shapes. There were no effects of shape frequency in either tachistoscopic recognition or lexical-decision tasks. This was true regardless of the degree to which the visual shape cue was supplemented by the nonvisual factors of familiarity and expectancy. Possible reasons why fluent readers ignore word shape are discussed within the framework of a model that assumes that automatic word recognition is mediated by the activation of abstract letter identities.