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Matthias Seifert Allègre L. Hadida 《Organizational behavior and human decision processes》2013,120(1):24-36
When and to what extent should forecasts rely on linear model or human judgment? The judgmental forecasting literature suggests that aggregating model and judge using a simple 50:50 split tends to outperform the two inputs alone. However, current research disregards the important role that the structure of the task, judges’ level of expertise, and the number of individuals providing a forecasting judgment may play. Ninety-two music industry professionals and 88 postgraduate students were recruited in a field experiment to predict chart entry positions of pop music singles in the UK and Germany. The results of a lens model analysis show how task structure and domain-specific expertise moderate the relative importance of model and judge. The study also delineates an upper boundary to which aggregating multiple judgments in model-expert combinations adds predictive accuracy. It is suggested that ignoring the characteristics of task and/or judge may lead to suboptimal forecasting performance. 相似文献
84.
Eve-Marie Quintin Anjali Bhatara Hélène Poissant Eric Fombonne 《Child neuropsychology》2013,19(3):250-275
Enhanced pitch perception and memory have been cited as evidence of a local processing bias in autism spectrum disorders (ASD). This bias is argued to account for enhanced perceptual functioning (Mottron &; Burack, 2001; Mottron, Dawson, Soulières, Hubert, &; Burack, 2006) and central coherence theories of ASD (Frith, 1989; Happé &; Frith, 2006). A local processing bias confers a different cognitive style to individuals with ASD (Happé, 1999), which accounts in part for their good visuospatial and visuoconstructive skills. Here, we present analogues in the auditory domain, audiotemporal or audioconstructive processing, which we assess using a novel experimental task: a musical puzzle. This task evaluates the ability of individuals with ASD to process temporal sequences of musical events as well as various elements of musical structure and thus indexes their ability to employ a global processing style. Musical structures created and replicated by children and adolescents with ASD (10–19 years old) and typically developing children and adolescents (7–17 years old) were found to be similar in global coherence. Presenting a musical template for reference increased accuracy equally for both groups, with performance associated to performance IQ and short-term auditory memory. The overall pattern of performance was similar for both groups; some puzzles were easier than others and this was the case for both groups. Task performance was further found to be correlated with the ability to perceive musical emotions, more so for typically developing participants. Findings are discussed in light of the empathizing-systemizing theory of ASD (Baron-Cohen, 2009) and the importance of describing the strengths of individuals with ASD (Happé, 1999; Heaton, 2009). 相似文献
85.
Kevin Grimm Zhiyong Zhang Fumiaki Hamagami Michèle Mazzocco 《Multivariate behavioral research》2013,48(1):117-143
A general equadion is presented, covering all arbitrary values for the true population splits, for obtaining the true population phi, given observed cell frequencies for a selected sample, and true population splits. A nongeneral solution is also offered, based on the use of the G Index. Demonstrations with hypothetical data are given. 相似文献
86.
With the Appraisal Tendency Framework, it has been established that (un)certainty appraisals associated with incidental emotions trigger the kind of information processing to cope with situation. We tested the impact of (un)certainty-associated emotions on a sequential task, the Iowa Gambling Task. In this task, intuitive processing is necessary to lead participants to rely on emotional cues arising from previous decisions and to making advantageous decisions. We predicted that certainty-associated emotions would engage participants in intuitive processing, whereas uncertainty-associated emotions would engage them in deliberative processing and lead them to make disadvantageous decisions. As expected, we observed in two distinct experiments, that participants induced to feel uncertainty (fear, sadness) were found to decide less advantageously than participants induced to feel certainty (anger, happiness, disgust). 相似文献
87.
Although the word‐frequency effect is one of the most established findings in spoken‐word recognition, the precise processing locus of this effect is still a topic of debate. In this study, we used event‐related potentials (ERPs) to track the time course of the word‐frequency effect. In addition, the neighborhood density effect, which is known to reflect mechanisms involved in word identification, was also examined. The ERP data showed a clear frequency effect as early as 350 ms from word onset on the P350, followed by a later effect at word offset on the late N400. A neighborhood density effect was also found at an early stage of spoken‐word processing on the PMN, and at word offset on the late N400. Overall, our ERP differences for word frequency suggest that frequency affects the core processes of word identification starting from the initial phase of lexical activation and including target word selection. They thus rule out any interpretation of the word frequency effect that is limited to a purely decisional locus after word identification has been completed. 相似文献
88.
Abstract In the present study, effects of a health education (INFO) and a PsychoEducational Prevention (INFO + PEP) Programme were Investigated in three hospitals. These programmes were offered to groups of coronary heart disease (CHD) patients and their partners alter discharge from hospital. The INFO was offered to 127 CHD patients in addition to FIT (i.e. standard medical care and physical training). The PEP was offered to 90 Patients in, addition to the INFO and FIT. A control group of 122 patients received only FIT. The INFO and the PEP consisted of four weekly two-hour group sessions each. In addition, the PEP was followed by seven telephone follow-up contacts. On average, patients improved their lifestyles during the first three months. Between three and twelve months an extra improvement was found for eating habits, whereas there was a relapse for smoking and a sedentary lifestyle. In the short term, angina pectoris and a longer period of heart complaints were parallelled with a decrease in the risk of maintaining unhealthy eating habits, whereas in the long term a longer period of heart complaints a younger age and unemployment predicted a lower risk of maintaining unhealthy eating habits In the short term living with a partner and in the long term female gender were predictive of continued smoking behaviour In the short term, older age, a first CABG and a specific hospital setting decreased the risk of a continued sedentary lifestyle. The FIT + INFO + PEP had a favourable short-term effect on eating habits. For smoking and a sedentary lifestyle, however, there were negative effects. In the short term patients in the FIT +INFO and those in the FIT +INFO+PEP had significantly more problems in quitting a sedentary lifestyle than those in the FIT intervention in the long term, patients in the FIT + INFO had significantly more problems in stopping smoking compared to these in the FIT. 相似文献
89.
The present study was designed to examine both concurrent and predictive associations between scores on a measure of executive function (EF) skills, the Contingency Naming Test (CNT), during the early school-age years. A secondary aim of the study was to examine the association between EF skills and mathematics performance. We administered tests of mathematics ability, and the CNT, to 178 children at ages 6 to 7, 8 to 9, and 10 to 11 years. From the CNT we obtained measures of response fluency/efficiency, working memory, and inhibition. The results demonstrate main effects of age on all CNT measures of EF, as anticipated, and inconsistent main effects of gender or mathematics learning disability status. Rates of improvement in EF varied as a function of the working memory demands present during a given task. There were differences in concurrent and predictive correlations for different CNT performance measures. EF scores obtained during the first assessment were as strongly associated with each other as they were with EF scores obtained four years later, suggesting a moderately stable source of individual differences on cognitive performance. EF scores at age 6 to 7 years were associated with concurrent and later mathematics scores, and most of these correlations were stronger than the significant associations found between response fluency on a baseline task (with no working memory demand) and mathematics performance. These findings have implications for the stability of EF skills during the school-age years, and the role of EF in early and later elementary school mathematics performance. 相似文献
90.
B. Van de Moortèle § T. Epicier J. L. Soubeyroux J. M. Pelletier 《Philosophical Magazine Letters》2013,93(4):245-256
The devitrification process of Zr46.75Ti8.25Cu7.5Ni10Be27.5 metallic glass during annealing in the supercooled liquid region has been studied by conventional, high-resolution and analytical transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Two kinds of particle appear during devitrification: quasicrystals and crystalline precipitates. Nanoanalysis with energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy and electron energy-loss spectroscopy reveal that quasicrystals are Be free, while the crystallites have the ZrBe2 hexagonal structure. These experiments confirm the key role of Be during devitrification. They also indicate that quasicrystals can form in the system Zr–Ti–Cu–Ni (without Be), as further evidenced by direct synthesis and an in situ neutron diffraction investigation, according to the chemical composition deduced from the TEM analysis. 相似文献