The psychology of ongoing threat: relative risk appraisal, the September 11 attacks, and terrorism-related fears

There are now replicated findings that posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms related to the September 11, 2001, attacks occurred in large numbers of persons who did not fit the traditional definition of exposure to a traumatic event. These data are not explained by traditional epidemiologic "bull's eye" disaster models, which assume the psychological effects are narrowly, geographically circumscribed, or by existing models of PTSD onset. In this article, the authors develop a researchable model to explain these and other terrorism-related phenomena by synthesizing research and concepts from the cognitive science, risk appraisal, traumatic stress, and anxiety disorders literatures. They propose the new term relative risk appraisal to capture the psychological function that is the missing link between the event and subjective response in these and other terrorism-related studies to date. Relative risk appraisal highlights the core notion from cognitive science that human perception is an active, multidimensional process, such that for unpredictable societal threats, proximity to the event is only one of several factors that influence behavioral responses. Addressing distortions in relative risk appraisal effectively could reduce individual and societal vulnerability to a wide range of adverse economic and ethnopolitical consequences to terrorist attacks. The authors present ways in which these concepts and related techniques can be helpful in treating persons with September 11- or terrorism-related distress or psychopathology.     

The influence of suspect ethnicity and evidence direction on alibi credibility assessment

We investigated whether evidence direction (incriminating versus exonerating) moderated the influence of intergroup bias on alibi credibility assessments. Israeli-Jewish participants (n = 160) assessed the credibility of an alibi statement provided by either an Israeli-Jewish or an Israeli-Arab suspect. Along with the alibi statement, half of the participants were presented with incriminating evidence, while the other half were presented with exonerating evidence. The results indicated that evidence direction influenced credibility assessment regarding both in-group and out-group suspects. Specifically, under incriminating evidence, Israeli-Jewish suspects were perceived as more deceptive than Israeli-Arab suspects, whereas under exonerating evidence, no such differences were found. These results emphasize the significance of group bias in assessing the credibility of alibi statements.     

Virtue and Continence

John McDowell argued that the virtuous person (VP) knows no temptation: her perception of a situation silences all competing motivations – be it fear in the face of danger or a strong desire. The VP cannot recognize any reason to act non-virtuously as a reason, and is never inclined to act non-virtuously. This view rests on the requirement that the VP rationally respond, and not merely react, to the environment – it rests on the requirement that the relation between the VP and the world (ethical requirements) must rule out the possibility that the VP is a brain in a vat. I will argue that the opposite is true: virtue requires a sensitivity to temptation. The VP, as such, must be able to recognize reasons for performing non-virtuous actions as reasons, and be inclined to perform them. She must find nothing human alien. This is so because the VP must possess the ability to understand non-virtuous agents, and understanding necessarily involves vulnerability to temptation. Otherwise, it will be argued, the VP views the actions of others as determined from outside the space of reasons. But the VP, like any other person, must have the ability to view the actions of others as rational responses to the environment, not only as reactions to it. Put differently, the VP’s view of others must rule out the possibility that they are brains in a vat – the possibility that their actions are merely caused, rather than justified, by the facts. Finally, it will be suggested that an amended conception of the VP can meet both requirements: view others as rationally responsive to the world, without relinquishing its relation to the facts.

Is there more to complicated grief than depression and posttraumatic stress disorder? A test of incremental validity

There is growing interest in complicated grief reactions as a possible new diagnostic category for inclusion in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders. However, no research has yet shown that complicated grief has incremental validity (i.e., predicts unique variance in functioning). The authors addressed this issue in 2 studies by comparing grief, depression, and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms with different measures of functioning (interviewer ratings, friend ratings, self-report, and autonomic arousal). The 1st study (N = 73) used longitudinal data collected at 4 and 18 months postloss, and the 2nd study (N = 447) used cross-sectional data collected 2.5-3.5 years postloss. With depression and PTSD controlled, grief emerged as a unique predictor of functioning, both cross-sectionally and prospectively. The findings provide convergent support for the incremental validity of complicated grief as an independent marker of bereavement-related psychopathology.     

The Al Qaeda 9/11 instructions: a study in the construction of religious martyrdom

A growing global concern about suicide attacks has led to attempts from various disciplines to understand the psychological profiles of persons willing to commit suicide terrorist attacks. Recent reports have suggested that more powerful explanatory models might be discovered using social psychological concepts, with a shift of focus from the individual to the group within which the individual acts and by which the individual is influenced. This paper attempts to do so by presenting an analysis of the Al Qaeda ‘final instructions’ document, which sheds light on the way members of this group were mobilised towards conducting one of the most devastating assaults in modern history. We discuss the use of religious doctrine and rhetorical devices as a psychological strategy employed by this group to inspire, control and mobilise its members before and during the September 11, 2001, attacks.     

Changes in positive and negative affect as predictors of change in felt age: Results from the Health and Retirement Study

The present study aimed to examine how changes in positive and negative affect and their interaction predict changes in felt age in a longitudinal design of two waves drawn from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). Participants (n = 4174) at an average age of 67.97 completed the 2008 and 2012 left behind questionnaire of the HRS. Our results showed that an increase in positive affect and a decrease in negative affect from Wave 1 to Wave 2 predicted an accelerated decrease in felt age. There was an interaction effect showing that for those with an increase in negative affect, a higher change in positive affect predicted reduced odds for accelerated increase in felt age. To conclude, improving favorable change in the combination between positive and negative affect might in turn relate to the individual’s self-perceptions of aging, in the second half of life.     

Using the model statement to elicit verbal differences between truth tellers and liars amongst Arab interviewees: A partial replication of Leal,Vrij, Deeb,and Jupe (2018)

Leal, Vrij, Deeb, and Jupe (2018) found—with British participants—that a model statement elicited (a) more information and (b) a cue to deceit: After exposure to a model statement, liars reported significantly more peripheral information than truth tellers. We sought to replicate these findings with Arabs living in Israel. Truth tellers and liars reported a stand‐out event that they had (truth tellers) or pretended to have (liars) experienced in the last 2 years. Half of the participants were given a model statement in the second phase of the interview. Replicating Leal et al. (2018a), (a) truth tellers reported more core details than liars initially and (b) a model statement resulted in more additional core and peripheral details in the second phase of the interview. Unlike in Leal et al. (2018a), a model statement did not have a differential effect on truth tellers in the current experiment.     

Inequality in Political Philosophy and in Epidemiology: A Remarriage

In political philosophy and in economics, unfair inequality is usually assessed between individuals, nowadays often on luck‐egalitarian grounds. You have more than I do (through no fault of my own) and that's unfair. By contrast, in epidemiology and sociology, unfair inequality is traditionally assessed between groups. More is concentrated among people of your class or race than among people of mine, and that's unfair. I shall call this difference the egalitarian ‘divorce’. Epidemiologists, and their ‘divorce lawyers’ Paula Braveman, Norman Daniels, and Iris Marion Young, explain that not every inequality between individuals is an inequity. Only inequality between social status groups is unfair. Only such inequality stems from problems like partiality, discrimination, oppression, inequality‐related population health problems, and unfair distribution of prospects. And it alone is actionable. By contrast, inequality between individuals, e.g. in longevity, is natural, inevitable, less important, or otherwise less informative — not unjust. In ‘divorce trial’ mode, I respond to epidemiologists that group inequalities lack the intrinsic disvalue that they ascribe them. They may be instrumentally or contingently bad or wrong, not essentially so. I then shift to ‘remarriage’: although group inequalities lack intrinsic badness or wrongness, for multiple reasons they remain useful to measure.     

Dynamic multiple-objective optimization of environmental regulation policies

Environmental regulation policies are tested via alternative multi-objective criteria in order to test their efficiency when they are spread over time—that is in a dynamic setting. The implication is carried to the Haifa Bay area in Israel with an extension to the entire country. The results presented in this paper can give decision makers another perspective of their decisions. The implication of their choice on the state(s) of the system through time so they can test the efficiency criterion in each period of the planning horizon. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.