Why does the base rate appear to be ignored? The equiprobability hypothesis

The base rate fallacy has been considered to result from people’s tendency to ignore the base rates given in tasks. In the present article, we note a particular, common structure of the tasks (the imbalanced probability structure) in which the fallacy is often observed. The equiprobability hypothesis explains the mechanism that produces the fallacy. This hypothesis predicts that task material that overrides people’s default equiprobability assumption can facilitate normative Bayesian inferences. The results of our two experiments strongly supported this prediction, and none of the alternative theories considered could explain the results. nt]mis|The present research was supported by Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research 19500229 from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, awarded to M.H.     

NMDA receptor-dependent processes in the medial prefrontal cortex are important for acquisition and the early stage of consolidation during trace, but not delay eyeblink conditioning

Permanent lesions in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) affect acquisition of conditioned responses (CRs) during trace eyeblink conditioning and retention of remotely acquired CRs. To clarify further roles of the mPFC in this type of learning, we investigated the participation of the mPFC in mnemonic processes both during and after daily conditioning using local microinfusion of the GABA(A) receptor agonist muscimol or the NMDA receptor antagonist APV into the rat mPFC. Muscimol infusions into the mPFC before daily conditioning significantly retarded CR acquisition and reduced CR expression if applied after sufficient learning. APV infusion also impaired acquisition of CRs, but not expression of well-learned CRs. When infusions were made immediately after daily conditioning, acquisition of the CR was partially impaired in both the muscimol and APV infusion groups. In contrast, rats that received muscimol infusions 3 h after daily conditioning exhibited improvement in their CR performance comparable to that of the control group. Both the pre- and post-conditioning infusion of muscimol had no effect on acquisition in the delay paradigm. These results suggest that the mPFC participates in both acquisition of a CR and the early stage of consolidation of memory in trace, but not delay eyeblink conditioning by NMDA receptor-mediated operations.